Forums - Sales Discussion - Will PS5 and Series X have a bigger opening than Switch?

Wich will have the biggest launch window (2 months)?

Switch (March-May 2017) 12 21.82%
 
Xbox Series (November-Dec... 2 3.64%
 
Playstation 5 (No release date yet, 2020) 41 74.55%
 
Total:55

So far we know that Switch launch window (first 2 months - March 3rd to June 3rd May 6th) sold a little shy from 3.7M about 3.2M (3,669,471 3,210,128) units per VGChartz tracking (and being over 3 years ago we can consider this reasonably precise). We also know from the current gen systems, to use as parameter for our expectations, Xbox One sold a little less than 3.3M (3,277,762) - even with all the shortcomings that we know - and Playstation 4 sold a little less than 5.1M (5,060,349) in a similar window of launch.

Now that Microsoft isn't making the same mistakes for the launch of Series X and Sony is also coming stronger than they were with Playstation 3 as predecessor, which of the three systems will have the biggest launch window sales? We have rumors that Xbox will have a cheap Series S to make a strong case and Sony have increased their orders from 5M to 10M (not fully explained if for Holidays or until March for the fiscal year end).

Place your predictions for both systems and if they will be able to sell more than Switch launch window numbers.

Last edited by DonFerrari - on 17 August 2020

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Around the Network

I have a hard time believing they will achieve that honestly.
Both have a so so lunch line up and while they have clearly a big upgrade from the current generation, they are still that, an upgrade until new games are coming out (Halo, Flight Simulator for Microsoft) and (Horizon Dawn, GT for Sony) that will really use the machine's internals.

The Switch cames up with Zelda (and few others) which, by itself, sold the console :)

Would say:

Sony: 2.5M
Microsoft: 1.5M



i'm quite sure sony wanted to sell 10 million units in the FY so i can see that happening because that would mean the supply is there



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

These consoles will be expensive.



Imaginedvl said:

I have a hard time believing they will achieve that honestly.
Both have a so so lunch line up and while they have clearly a big upgrade from the current generation, they are still that, an upgrade until new games are coming out (Halo, Flight Simulator for Microsoft) and (Horizon Dawn, GT for Sony) that will really use the machine's internals.

The Switch cames up with Zelda (and few others) which, by itself, sold the console :)

Would say:

Sony: 2.5M
Microsoft: 1.5M

The Switch launched with 5 games. Even if one of those games was Zelda (itself not an exclusive) 5 games is still a weak launch lineup.

It is a huge stretch to say that the PS5 or Xbox Series X have weaker launch lineups when they presumably will have more than 5 games. Including big third party games like Watch Dogs and Assassins Creed that may never come to Switch.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1gWECYYOSo

Please Watch/Share this video so it gets shown in Hollywood.

Around the Network

Are we talking about two or three months now? Thread title, poll and original post are all over the place.

I'll answer for the two-month-period. The PS5 is bound to be the highest because it's a holiday launch and has global appeal, unlike the upcoming Xbox. Second place goes to Xbox because of a holiday launch. That leaves Switch in third.

Hopefully this finally buries the misbelief that a holiday launch means a wasted holiday season. A holiday launch means that month 1 and 2 are equally good whereas launching outside the holiday season results in a significant dropoff from month 1 to month 2.

EDIT: Switch managed 3.06m in its first two months, so yes, there's little doubt that the new Xbox is going to beat that, and the PS5 will beat the box.

Last edited by RolStoppable - on 17 August 2020

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Imaginedvl said:

I have a hard time believing they will achieve that honestly.
Both have a so so lunch line up and while they have clearly a big upgrade from the current generation, they are still that, an upgrade until new games are coming out (Halo, Flight Simulator for Microsoft) and (Horizon Dawn, GT for Sony) that will really use the machine's internals.

The Switch cames up with Zelda (and few others) which, by itself, sold the console :)

Would say:

Sony: 2.5M
Microsoft: 1.5M

Why do you think PS5 and Series will do like half of what their predecessors made on launch? PS4 and X1 also didn't had killer apps.

RolStoppable said:

Are we talking about two or three months now? Thread title, poll and original post are all over the place.

I'll answer for the two-month-period. The PS5 is bound to be the highest because it's a holiday launch and has global appeal, unlike the upcoming Xbox. Second place goes to Xbox because of a holiday launch. That leaves Switch in third.

Hopefully this finally buries the misbelief that a holiday launch means a wasted holiday season. A holiday launch means that month 1 and 2 are equally good whereas launching outside the holiday season results in a significant dropoff from month 1 to month 2.

EDIT: Switch managed 3.06m in its first two months, so yes, there's little doubt that the new Xbox is going to beat that, and the PS5 will beat the box.

It is 2 months. Switch launched March 3rd so for two full months on fiscal weeks would be May 3rd, not sure what mind fart I did to put June there.

About the holiday launch, you know that Switch didn't sell more on launch because it was out of inventory. It did in fact had basically a launch and holiday period while the other 2 had both together. If you sum March+April for Sony and MS with their launch versus Switch launch+1st holiday it is clear that it benefited Switch.

Last edited by DonFerrari - on 17 August 2020

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

The PS5 takes this one easily. Its going to do at least PS4 level sales and most likely more.

And I know people will do the whole holiday lanch thing, but what I will say to that is that I expect both the PS5 and XSX/S to sell out of whatever they can ship out in those first two months.

Launches in my opinion are more limited by stock than by period. I mean, even the switch was outta stock within days of its launch. If Nintendo could have managed to ship out 5M units for its launch, it would have sold 5M units.



we need the price. Without the price, prediction goes wrong. 



Imaginedvl said:

I have a hard time believing they will achieve that honestly.
Both have a so so lunch line up and while they have clearly a big upgrade from the current generation, they are still that, an upgrade until new games are coming out (Halo, Flight Simulator for Microsoft) and (Horizon Dawn, GT for Sony) that will really use the machine's internals.

The Switch cames up with Zelda (and few others) which, by itself, sold the console :)

Would say:

Sony: 2.5M
Microsoft: 1.5M

Lol...

Now that's a hot-take.