well a total lockdown seems to have worked in china's case, but what if someone comes in in about a month carrrying Corona wheres the immunity?
that wave 2 doesn't need to come within a week, or a month.

5986 new cases and 627 new deaths in Italy. And they are already in their homes for so long...

Italy went into total lock down 7 days ago. However now they're going to call in the army to enforce the lock down. It's one thing to tell people to say inside, another for people to actually listen.

Conte is weighing extending the current ban on non-essential activities until at least early May, according to officials who asked not to be named discussing confidential deliberations. The decision depends on factors including the spread of infections and the fact that many Italians aren’t respecting the rules, the officials said.

The government may call in the army to help enforce the restrictions and schools may not reopen before the summer break, the officials added. The further tightening may also include a ban on outdoor sports and on Italians’ “passeggiate,” or strolls, with citizens allowed to leave their homes only for work or health reasons, or for emergencies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/italy-is-now-world-s-deadliest-hotspot-in-the-virus-pandemic

Italy needs help and fast,they cant keep up anymore.

how much worse would it be, if they didnt shut down the country and keep people home?
And only keep the bare essentials going?

Would they be at like 200,000+ cases instead of 41,000? who knows.
But theres a reason they are doing this, everywhere.

You can afford to just let it spread as it wants, and shutting things down, and keeping people home works.

The best would be if you could test millions and millions of people, and isolate the sick from the rest (not even in isolate them to their own homes, but move them away from their familes and others non infected).  However in the "west" such a thing would be near unthinkable, and viewed as too drastic, but it worked in china.
Next best thing is to ask everyone to stay home.

*edit:

Also you have to remember it takes on avg 12 days before you start showing symptoms.
That means alot of these people were already "sick" (just not showing symptioms) before they locked down the country.

Infection rates will keep riseing until the "shutdown periode" is longer than the incubation periode was.

Ontop of that, no "self imposed quarantine, is perfect. Theres gonna be fools that ignore it, people that try to do it, but still overlook something silly and get infected. It just slows things down, its not a 100% now spread stops sort of thing.

Infection rates will keep raiseing at the same pace for atleast ~5-6 days. Like was mentioned before, they only did the lockdown like 7days ago.
Then "if" the people of italy are good about following the advice, needed to be taken during the quarantine, numbers should drop abit (spread rate).

People think, shutting things 100% down, means instantly no more spread.... in terms of shown confirmed infection cases on some site.
However with the incubation time being 12days.... alot of people in lockdown are already sick and infected, and just dont know it yet.
So the confirmed cases numbers will keep climbing for days to come.



New York is the first state in america to do a 100% shutdown.
Their numbers of "confirmed" infected will also keep climbing at about same speeds or higher than current ones, for another 12days as well.

Other places in the USA? they havnt even shut things down.
Theres people running around on beaches haveing spring breaks, and spreading the virus.

Italy handled their out break really poorly.
America is really slow, in takeing any action as well.
Also whats worse is that theres still like 7 states that havnt even asked their cititzens to stop gathering in large amounts ect.

Maybe 2 months from now, the talk wont be how poorly italy handled the outbreak, but instead america's.

Considering 2 weeks ago they had an average growth of 1.23x daily, without any measures, they would now have been at 18K new cases today, with the total number of cases close to 100K, over twice as bad as it is currently, with likely quite a bit more than twice the number of deaths already since hospitals can't keep up.

That is if the growth factor and number of cases were accurate for March 6th. Testing was still not widespread so the numbers were probably too low for that period. Suppose it was actually 1.3x, the number of new cases would have hit 40K daily today with a total of 171K.

Getting that growth factor down is essential. Back to that 1.23x growth factor, let it go for another 2 weeks and you're at 330K new cases that day, another 2 weeks, 6 million new cases per day at which point the population itself will constrain the growth (60 million in Italy) Thus letting it do its thing for just 1.5 months after reaching 1000 new cases a day and you have tens of millions infected.

Not so terrible, the new infected numbers are in line or better than yesterday (5322 new positive cases with only 17K tests), especially because today we did more than 25K tests... +12K than the average number of the past days (The total number is 210K); so I'm starting to think that maybe the problem is not a lack of test kits in Italy, as i erroneously affirmed in another post before this... the problem maybe is more the capacity of Italian laboratories to analyze them and find new positive or recovered cases (We use 2 test kits in order to declare a patient "recovered"). 

However, if this is a right discourse for central/northern Italy, in the south instead the number of tests continue to be under the normal average for the situation. 

Tell me if is normal that the Campania region (Where there is Naples, the highest density area in Italy) with around 6 million of people did only 300 tests today and 150 of them are positive! While South Tyrol (1 million people) did normally 1500 tests each day with only 200 positive...

I really hope the coronavirus pandemic will end soon.

The peak could still be 2 weeks from now, which means the number of active cases could still more than double.

The predictions on the peak of the coronavirus "the experts do, surely it is right to do them but then we have to see if they are confirmed by the facts. Maybe the peak will not arrive next week but the one after. Everyone says that we are going towards the peak and we hope that both as soon as possible ". This was said by the commissioner for the management of the coronavirus emergency Angelo Borrelli to the microphones of Rai Radio2 during the transmission 'I Lunatici'.
https://www.adnkronos.com/fatti/cronaca/2020/03/20/coronavirus-borrelli-picco-forse-tra-settimane_zWIZ0rAv8UTWSfhPlrpNBP.html

There are 2 peaks, first the new daily cases per day peaks and starts to diminish (which is hard to tell when exactly with test capacity continually increasing and/or not being able to keep up). Then the active case load peak which is more important, the maximum number of people sick at the same time. For China that peak was almost 2 weeks later. I assume he's talking about the later peak, which would mean that the increase in new daily cases has already stopped and the increase we're currently seeing is all from extra testing. So the new daily cases peak on March 15th, putting the active case load peak at around March 28th. But without tight quarantine it can be dragged out longer.


Then the after math. Just now another passenger from the Diamond Princess died from complications, 6 weeks after the ship went into quarantine.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canadian-dies-in-japan-from-covid-19-complications-1.4861295
177 cases are still active with 14 serious/critical. This won't be over soon :(

Uh, interesting, do you have a source?