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SvennoJ on 20 March 2020
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JRPGfan said:
crissindahouse said:
5986 new cases and 627 new deaths in Italy. And they are already in their homes for so long...

how much worse would it be, if they didnt shut down the country and keep people home?
And only keep the bare essentials going?

Would they be 400,000+ cases instead of 41,000? who knows.
But theres a reason they are doing this, everywhere.

You can afford to just let it spread as it wants, and shutting things down, and keeping people home works.

The best would be if you could test millions and millions of people, and isolate the sick from the rest (not even in siolate them to their own homes, but move them away from their familes and others non infected).  However in the "west" such a thing would be near unthinkable, and viewed as too drastic, but it worked in china.
Next best thing is to ask everyone to stay home.

Considering 2 weeks ago they had an average growth of 1.23x daily, without any measures, they would now have been at 18K new cases today, with the total number of cases close to 100K, over twice as bad as it is currently, with likely quite a bit more than twice the number of deaths already since hospitals can't keep up.

That is if the growth factor and number of cases were accurate for March 6th. Testing was still not widespread so the numbers were probably too low for that period. Suppose it was actually 1.3x, the number of new cases would have hit 40K daily today with a total of 171K.

Getting that growth factor down is essential. Back to that 1.23x growth factor, let it go for another 2 weeks and you're at 330K new cases that day, another 2 weeks, 6 million new cases per day at which point the population itself will constrain the growth (60 million in Italy) Thus letting it do its thing for just 1.5 months after reaching 1000 new cases a day and you have tens of millions infected.