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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch 10 million sellers

 

How many NS games will sell more than 10M copies?

1-5 3 2.73%
 
5-10 28 25.45%
 
10-15 56 50.91%
 
15-20 12 10.91%
 
20 + 11 10.00%
 
Total:110
nidavellir said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm very bullish on this issue.  I don't think Switch will get anything that sells like Wii Sports, but it will have an unprecedented number of 10m+ sellers.

Games released in first 24 months:
Zelda: BotW
Mario Kart 8
Splatoon 2
Super Mario Odyssey
Super Mario Party*
Pokemon Let's Go
Smash Bros
NSMB U

I'm giving Super Mario Party a 0.5, because I'm not sure if it will cross 10m or not, so that is 7.5 total.  I think there will be a similar number of first party games during the rest of Switch's lifetime bringing the total to 15.  I also think there will be a few third party games that cross the line, somewhere between 3-7 titles.  

Grand total: 18 - 22 total that sell 10m+

I can't think of a single 3rd party game that could cross 10M sales on a Nintendo console (the best are Monster Hunter and Yo-Kai Watch, and there's no way those are gonna sell that much), what do you have in mind when you say that ?

Every generation has third party hits that become really big.  Some come totally out of nowhere like Minecraft.  Others are sequels that break out from a more niche following like GTA2 -> GTA3.  For generation 9, I think these kinds of titles will be on the Switch.  

Hard to say which titles exactly, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the next Monster Hunter title sold 10m+ on Switch.



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I think it has a chance to have more than 10 ten million sellers, though I'm not sure what all those titles would be... Ones I see passing that mark are the next Pokemon game, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros Ultimate, and perhaps Splatoon 2. That's already 7. I think a few more can release in the Switch's lifetime...



 

              

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LipeJJ said:
PAOerfulone said:
Already:
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Super Mario Odyssey

Guaranteed:
Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee
Pokemon Gen 8
Pokemon Gen 9
Pokemon Gen 4 remakes
Splatoon 2
Animal Crossing Switch

Possibilities:
Super Mario Party
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe

Puncher's Chance, but Unlikely:
Luigi's Mansion 3

That's all I've got at the moment and even then, Gen 9 and Gen 4 remakes are just hypothetical.

Oh, yeah, completly forgot about Super Mario Party. I'm thinking it will ship 5m this quarter, so it has a decent chance at reaching 10m eventually. Btw, I would say Luigi's Mansion falls in the same category as it (a possibility, not a wild card really).

Well, now that I think about it. It could have a better chance than I gave it credit for. The series managed to jump from 3.6 million with the first game to 5-6 million for the second game. I would absolutely love it and do jumps of joy if the game managed to pull it off because I love the Luigi's Mansion series, (my personal favorite Mario spinoff series and 2nd favorite overall right behind the mainline platformers). And for it to reach 10 million would pretty much guarantee that Luigi's Mansion becomes a regular, recurring Nintendo franchise. 

Clank said:

I would add a new 3d mario game (Odyssey came early so I guess they will have the time to release a new one)!

Also what about mario maker 2? First one did great for wii U (around 4M) 

A new 3D Mario game could do it. It'll depend on two factors. 1) How late it releases in the Switch's life cycle, Galaxy 2 released in 2010 during the Wii's 4th full year on the market and at a time where Wii sales, while still impressive, were noticeably beginning to nosedive. 2) If the next 3D Mario is too similar to Odyssey like Galaxy 2 was to Galaxy 1 (It started out as just an expansion pack of Galaxy 1 before Nintendo decided to make it a full blown sequel), then it could eat into some of its potential sales.

And a Mario Maker 2 could certainly pull it off, or a new 2D Mario made from scratch. Either one of those could absolutely sell 10 million on the Switch.



The Switch will have between 15-20 10m sellers. I think any game series that's had a recent entry sell 4m+ on a Nintendo platform has a shot at 10m+ on the Switch as long as it's a good exclusive game that's advertised well.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm very bullish on this issue.  I don't think Switch will get anything that sells like Wii Sports, but it will have an unprecedented number of 10m+ sellers.

Games released in first 24 months:
Zelda: BotW
Mario Kart 8
Splatoon 2
Super Mario Odyssey
Super Mario Party*
Pokemon Let's Go
Smash Bros
NSMB U

I'm giving Super Mario Party a 0.5, because I'm not sure if it will cross 10m or not, so that is 7.5 total.  I think there will be a similar number of first party games during the rest of Switch's lifetime bringing the total to 15.  I also think there will be a few third party games that cross the line, somewhere between 3-7 titles.  

Grand total: 18 - 22 total that sell 10m+

To be fair, Wii Sport was bundled with almost every Wii console from Wii launch, so that hardly can be repeated.

 

nidavellir said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm very bullish on this issue.  I don't think Switch will get anything that sells like Wii Sports, but it will have an unprecedented number of 10m+ sellers.

Games released in first 24 months:
Zelda: BotW
Mario Kart 8
Splatoon 2
Super Mario Odyssey
Super Mario Party*
Pokemon Let's Go
Smash Bros
NSMB U

I'm giving Super Mario Party a 0.5, because I'm not sure if it will cross 10m or not, so that is 7.5 total.  I think there will be a similar number of first party games during the rest of Switch's lifetime bringing the total to 15.  I also think there will be a few third party games that cross the line, somewhere between 3-7 titles.  

Grand total: 18 - 22 total that sell 10m+

I can't think of a single 3rd party game that could cross 10M sales on a Nintendo console (the best are Monster Hunter and Yo-Kai Watch, and there's no way those are gonna sell that much), what do you have in mind when you say that ?

Talking about potential 10m 3rd party seller, I would said potential GTA V could have best chance.



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Yokai Watch sold more than 1M outside Japan (beinf released super late) I dont think it could pass 10M and idk if its still that popular in Japan but it could make great numbers.

As I read before I think Mario Party has a strong chance



nidavellir said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm very bullish on this issue.  I don't think Switch will get anything that sells like Wii Sports, but it will have an unprecedented number of 10m+ sellers.

Games released in first 24 months:
Zelda: BotW
Mario Kart 8
Splatoon 2
Super Mario Odyssey
Super Mario Party*
Pokemon Let's Go
Smash Bros
NSMB U

I'm giving Super Mario Party a 0.5, because I'm not sure if it will cross 10m or not, so that is 7.5 total.  I think there will be a similar number of first party games during the rest of Switch's lifetime bringing the total to 15.  I also think there will be a few third party games that cross the line, somewhere between 3-7 titles.  

Grand total: 18 - 22 total that sell 10m+

I can't think of a single 3rd party game that could cross 10M sales on a Nintendo console (the best are Monster Hunter and Yo-Kai Watch, and there's no way those are gonna sell that much), what do you have in mind when you say that ?

Minecraft very well could do 10M. I don't think Just Dance comes back to this number, only if Nintendo pushes motion gaming again, which they seems reluctant to do.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

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bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Animal Crossing
Pokemon Let's Go
Pokemon (Newest version) 2019-2020
Pokemon (Remake or newever version) (2021-2022)
Some kind of sports casual game
Splat2on
NSMB Switch
Mario Maker Switch
Others that haven't been announced that appeal to the masses.



Mnementh said:
nidavellir said:

I can't think of a single 3rd party game that could cross 10M sales on a Nintendo console (the best are Monster Hunter and Yo-Kai Watch, and there's no way those are gonna sell that much), what do you have in mind when you say that ?

Minecraft very well could do 10M. I don't think Just Dance comes back to this number, only if Nintendo pushes motion gaming again, which they seems reluctant to do.

yea actually if im not wrong just dance 3 is the only 3d party to reach 10M in a nintendo system 



I voted 15 to 20.