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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch 10 million sellers

 

How many NS games will sell more than 10M copies?

1-5 3 2.73%
 
5-10 28 25.45%
 
10-15 56 50.91%
 
15-20 12 10.91%
 
20 + 11 10.00%
 
Total:110
PortisheadBiscuit on 29 December 2018
Clank said:
Miyamotoo said:

With official September update we have 3 of them (Zelda BotW, Mario Odyssey and MK8D), Splatoon2, Smash Bros, Pokemon Lets Go, Pokemon Gen 8 and Animal Crossing for now all seem safe bet, so that already 8 of them, so more than 10 games (10-15) LT is very safe bet.

For other potential 10 million sellers we will have Super Mario Party, Pokemon game after Gen 8, new 3D Mario, Mario Maker 2, NSMBU DX, new 3D Zelda, Mario Kart 9, Tomodachi Life.

Do you think we will have another 3d zelda on switch? Actually botw was meant for wii u so maybe...

Btw what do u think about yoshi? I think there are many big games next year so it wont be that big but cluld top 4-5 M easily

I actually hope the next 3D Zelda is saved for the next hardware release. They can fill the Zelda void on Switch with remakes and ports IMO.

Yoshi between 3-5 million I'd say



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Clank on 29 December 2018

I will upgrade the data with the next nintendo report, which I guess will be 30th January? Is it every 4 months? I think we will add Smash Bros almost for sure



Miyamotoo on 29 December 2018
Clank said:
Miyamotoo said:

With official September update we have 3 of them (Zelda BotW, Mario Odyssey and MK8D), Splatoon2, Smash Bros, Pokemon Lets Go, Pokemon Gen 8 and Animal Crossing for now all seem safe bet, so that already 8 of them, so more than 10 games (10-15) LT is very safe bet.

For other potential 10 million sellers we will have Super Mario Party, Pokemon game after Gen 8, new 3D Mario, Mario Maker 2, NSMBU DX, new 3D Zelda, Mario Kart 9, Tomodachi Life.

Do you think we will have another 3d zelda on switch? Actually botw was meant for wii u so maybe...

Btw what do u think about yoshi? I think there are many big games next year so it wont be that big but cluld top 4-5 M easily

Absolutely, Zelda BotW is Wii Us game and was released at launch of Switch, more than enough time for brand new 3D Zelda game on Switch (my bet is on 2020/2021), also after huge Zelda BotW succes new 3D Zelda will be one of priorities for Nintendo.

Games like Yoshi can hardly pass 5m.



zorg1000 on 29 December 2018
Clank said:
I will upgrade the data with the next nintendo report, which I guess will be 30th January? Is it every 4 months? I think we will add Smash Bros almost for sure

Every 3 months



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Clank on 29 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
Clank said:
I will upgrade the data with the next nintendo report, which I guess will be 30th January? Is it every 4 months? I think we will add Smash Bros almost for sure

Every 3 months

oh! so the new update will be for 31 dec? great (i wonder if smash will reach 10 M in those few days)



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melbye on 29 December 2018

Wonder if Smash has passed 10 million at this point



Miyamotoo on 29 December 2018
Clank said:
zorg1000 said:

Every 3 months

oh! so the new update will be for 31 dec? great (i wonder if smash will reach 10 M in those few days)

No, around one month after quarter was over, so at end of January will next update be.



Clank on 29 December 2018
melbye said:
Wonder if Smash has passed 10 million at this point

its gonna be so close if it hasnt! I predict 5M first week, then 2 and a half more (one of them being christmas) maybe 2M, 2M and 1M



Mnementh on 29 December 2018

Confirmed so far (3): Mario Kart, Zelda, SMO
Practically guaranteed to get there (4): Pokemon Let's Go, Smash Ultimate, Pokemon 2019, Animal Crossing
Likely to get there (2): Splatoon, Minecraft (including digital)
Possible, but more difficult (1): New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe (it might well sell more than on WiiU, but still fall short of 10M)
future games, if made: another new Pokemon or Mario



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

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Wyrdness on 29 December 2018
NightlyPoe said:
Wyrdness said:

Tomodachi Life sold 6.3m and appeals to the same crowd who go for games like Animal Crossing while LM2 hit 6m, that's both higher than what a series like Zelda averaged before BOTW hit 10m and that was a game people as well were arguing won't cross 10m because it's a threshold not reached, Switch has a high attach rate for first party software and is helped by a unified userbase, 10m is a large number but then these two games have sold numbers not to far from that so they can't be ignored especially with their popularity.

Yeah, but a Mii-based IP selling 10 million units when it won't be released until 2020 at the earliest?  With Miitopia and Miitomo disappointing, Nintendo themselves have largely given up on trying to market the Miis.  Pretty sure their value is going down, not up.

Luigi's Mansion has a bit more going for it, however, it likely being a shortish experience is gonna cap its potential.

Miitopia and Miitomo aren't Tomodachi it's like saying Hyrule Warriors only did this amount so BOTW won't sell 10m that's the flaw in that logic, Tomodachi all the way back on DS sold 3.6m as a Japan only release had the been a western release it would of had an easy 6-7m total sales hence why Tomodachi Life got a western release it's seen as one of Nintendo's regrets as we'd already be looking at a series with 8m or so sales at this point had they pushed it back then yet even with that misstep the 3DS game still sold 6.3m. This is because of the type of game it is drawing from games like the Sims and Animal Crossing it's a niche no other game really fills people don't buy it for the Miis they buy the game because of what you can do in it, 2020 would be 4 years into the Switch's life not much different to TL releasing 3 years into the 3DS'.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 29 December 2018