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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch 10 million sellers

 

How many NS games will sell more than 10M copies?

1-5 3 2.73%
 
5-10 28 25.45%
 
10-15 56 50.91%
 
15-20 12 10.91%
 
20 + 11 10.00%
 
Total:110
Wyrdness said:
I'm going predict around 12 possibly.

BOTW*
SMO*
MK8*
Smash Ultimate
Splatoon 2
Pokemon LG
Animal Crossing
Pokemon Gen 8
Pokemon Secondary Title (either a remake or gen 9)**
Tomodachi**
NSMBU Deluxe
Luigi's Mansion

* = Already crossed 10m
**= Possible future games that are likely to be made.

Of the original prediction 8 of the titles are 10m sellers now with LM and NSMBU at 6.6m each (as of the end of March) and still going with legs, only game not in the list is SMP which I underestimated. Tomodachi and a possible second Pokemon title are predicted games to be made that could cross the mark well Pokemon definitely would while Tomodachi's strong pull in Japan and Europe can help it pass 10m.

Currently of known future games BOTW's sequel is looking like another 10m and right now 15 10m sellers is looking like its set under current momentum.



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Switch is basically at the half way point in it's life and it already has 9 titles at 10m+.  Luigi's Mansion and NSMB U have a shot of eventually legging over 10m+.  So that is 9-11 titles in the first half of Switch's life that have either crossed the mark or eventually will.  They still have at least 3 more years to release big games like 2 more Pokemon, a Zelda Sequel, and possibly more Mario platformer and Mario party games.  Plus who knows what else they release that will hit big.  The way Switch software is selling a Tomodachi game has a strong possibility of going 10m+.

It's got 9 games already and plenty more big guns left to fire.



I wonder what kind of sales Ring Fit would do if there was inventory.



This is a complete crapshoot right now. It’s possible Nintendo could stick with the Switch well past 2023, in which case the 10m sellers will surely hit over 20. We already have 11-12 that are currently out, one announced game that’s a lock (botw2), and two announced that are possible (snap and paper mario). Honestly, 20 seems like a lock even if they abandon the console as early as 2022. We know there will be at least a couple more Mario games released that will do it, at least one more mainline Pokémon if not 2, and likely at least a couple more casual aimed games to do it. I also wouldn’t count out Prime 4 to pull a botw for the franchise if it delivers. If Nintendo stays with Switch as long as I think, I think 30 10m+ are possible.

Last edited by HyrulianScrolls - on 27 June 2020

That is crazy, when the thread was made i voted for 10-15 and i was always on the ambitious side. But we already have 9 after 3 years...
I think it will end up at 15-20 millions with these :

-Luigi's Mansion 3
-Botw 2
-RFA
-Mario collection
-Pkmon gen 4 remake
-other pokemon game
-Wildcard
-Maybe another mario title

So i would say 17 10x million sellers and 7 20x sellers. (ACNH, Zelda Botw, MO, MK8D, PK SwSh, Gen 4 remake, And a wildcard.. maybe Botw 2 if they surpass the original).



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Confirmed:
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
- Pokémon Sword/Shield
- Super Mario Odyssey
- Pokémon Let’s Go Pikachu/Eevee
- Super Mario Party
- Splatoon 2

Guaranteed:
- New Super Mario Bros. U
- Super Mario Maker 2
- Luigi’s Mansion 3
- Breath of the Wild 2
- Next 3D Mario game
- Pokémon Gen 9
- Pokémon Gen 4 remakes/Pokémon Let’s Go: Gen 2 edition (At least one more pair of mainline games)

Likely:
- Ring Fit Adventure
- Rumored 3D Mario collection



New numbers in from Nintendo for the end of December 2020 I'll put the current and likely 10m sellers.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 33.41m

Animal Crossing: 31.18m

Smash Bros Ultimate: 22.85m

Breath of the Wild: 21.45m (Switch version only)

Pokemon Sword/Shield: 20.35m

Mario Odyssey: 20.23m

Super Mario Party: 13.82m

Pokemon Let's Go: 13m

Splatoon 2: 11.9m

New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe: 9.82m

Luigi's Mansion 3: 9.13m

Ring Fit Adventure: 8.68m

Mario 3D All Stars: 8.32m

Wyrdness said:

I'm going predict around 12 possibly.

BOTW*
SMO*
MK8*
Smash Ultimate
Splatoon 2
Pokemon LG
Animal Crossing
Pokemon Gen 8
Pokemon Secondary Title (either a remake or gen 9)**
Tomodachi**
NSMBU Deluxe
Luigi's Mansion

* = Already crossed 10m
**= Possible future games that are likely to be made.

11 already as LM3 and NSMBU should have passed 10m by now, the will be more then 12 at this point I knew LM2 could make the mark now for Tomodachi to show up.



Already Achieved:
MK8 DX
ACNH
SSBU
BOTW
SWSH
SMO
SMP
LGPE
Splatoon 2

Likely (from released titles):
NSMBU DX
LM 3
All-Stars
Ring Fit
Mario Maker 2

Possibly (from released titles):
Clubhouse Games

Likely (from unreleased titles):
3D World
BOTW 2

Unannounced titles that could make it if they are real (these are titles that I think could come to Switch, so no new 2D Mario or MK will be listed:
DP Remakes
Gen 9
Let's Go Johto
Gen 10
BW Remakes

Ultimately, Switch could have a whopping 22 titles sell over 10 million units! Of course, this depends on how long the Switch is supported for and how long before GF jumps ship to the next system. Basically anything for main series Pokemon games is a guaranteed 10 million seller (likely just from the initial holiday launch). If all this does happen, I kind of hope Nintendo makes their top 10 list on the corporate website into a top 20. I think the top 10 could potentially be comprised of titles selling over 20 million! Top 5 could be titles over 30 million.



nidavellir said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm very bullish on this issue.  I don't think Switch will get anything that sells like Wii Sports, but it will have an unprecedented number of 10m+ sellers.

Games released in first 24 months:
Zelda: BotW
Mario Kart 8
Splatoon 2
Super Mario Odyssey
Super Mario Party*
Pokemon Let's Go
Smash Bros
NSMB U

I'm giving Super Mario Party a 0.5, because I'm not sure if it will cross 10m or not, so that is 7.5 total.  I think there will be a similar number of first party games during the rest of Switch's lifetime bringing the total to 15.  I also think there will be a few third party games that cross the line, somewhere between 3-7 titles.  

Grand total: 18 - 22 total that sell 10m+

I can't think of a single 3rd party game that could cross 10M sales on a Nintendo console (the best are Monster Hunter and Yo-Kai Watch, and there's no way those are gonna sell that much), what do you have in mind when you say that ?

This guy didn't think Monster Hunter had any chance of selling 10m back in the day.  What do the rest of you think?  Is Monster Hunter Rise a good candidate for a 10m+ seller?