A big part of success for any and all of these games will hinge on advertising. Getting the word out.

Deadly Creatures is a game I'm personally excited about because it strikes a cord with the hardcore horror fan in me--and may strike a similar cord with similar people. I don't think it'll manage a million in sales, but I don't think it'll do terribly--if properly advertised. Seeing as how they've snagged some actual Hollywood talent for the game, they might feel the need to actually promote the damn game.


Too many gamers are too close-minded and ignorant for MadWorld, and it's hellish violence will turn off quite a few people--unfortunately. However, I'd be surprised if it didn't at least garner half a million in sales.


The Conduit and House of the Dead: Overkill are almost guaranteed million-sellers. HotD2&3 has nearly managed a million in sales and the hype and worship for The Conduit will be enough to carry some impressive sales for it. Hype sold Lair and Haze before word got out about how bad they were.



But again, they're all at the mercy of the publisher's advertising budgets--and store availability. Some places, like Target or Wal-Mart may not even stalk some of these games. And that's worrisome. Decent advertising budgets, and appearing in plenty of retail outlets will mean good sales for most of the games.

Rygar will probably fare the worst overall.

House of the Dead: Overkill

It'll sell over 1.5 million and here is why:

Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles - 1.32 Million
House of the Dead 2 & 3 Return - 920k
Ghost Squad - 570k

It has a better atmosphere, more importantly it has a better marketable atmosphere than all of the above so it'll do great


The Conduit

This one will also sell over 1.5 Million copies, reason being that number 1, it's exclusive, number 2, it'll have a very solid online multiplayer, reason 3, people who don't think it can outsell Metroid really overestimate Metroids selling power, reason 4, it's a very mainstream type game that uses the Wii remote well, will support Motion Plus which will be brand new, and it'll have a solid marketing campaign

Metroid Prime 3: Corruption - 1.5 Million
Red Steel - 1.1 Million
Call of Duty 3 - 620k
Call of Duty: World at War - 430k

Unless it turns out to be a bad game, it'll most likely pass 1.5 Million


MadWorld

It will sell over 500k and here is why:

No More Heroes - 400k
Bully: Scholarship Edition - 370k

Now the reason why I looked at Bully here is because it was well publicised as a violent game, however it was a port - ports don't usually work well on Wii..

Also Madworld will have A LOT more attention for its over the top violence than bully ever did, it also has a very stylised presentation which in my opinion will help it sell more copies unlike No More Heroes which may have been overlooked due to its style.

One last reason is advertising, it will be advertised and the word of mouth will help it out, looking at a Million if all goes well


I'm going to have a think about the others.. I know these three will be advertised well but unsure on the others

Except there is one AAA title there. It's Madworld. It's made by some of the amazing developers of Okami, it features some of the best graphics on the Wii and it's got production values through the roof. Not to mention it looks like an exceptionally solid entry in to a much neglected Wii Genre.

And I'll say it again. Style is not niche, niche style is niche. People that think a hip hopping SinCityesque beatemup with cartoonish violence will have a similar appeal as a Japanese art style mythical wolf game are way off base. This games style will attract way more people than if they'd tried to go for realism. Infact, had madworld gone the Skate it route (as opposed to the Saun White route), then it would be in trouble. But this game has hit a stylistic home run that'll take its sales right out of the park (less than a million is IN the park)

It's also getting a lot of attention in the media and is being released by a company that seems damned sure that it wants to push it's hardcore games on the Wii.

Anyone that thinks this game will do less than 1 million life time sales... I challenge them to a duel!

Rygar - Too late, if this were a launch title, it would score at least 500k+1 from me :) now just a 200k

Tenchu 4 - niche, quite unknown, although high quality it seems. 400k tops.

Dead Rising: Chop 'til You Drop - Dissapointing reviews, will get great along the way due to positive word of mouth. 1m (slow).

House of the Dead: Overkill - A certain 1.5m+ seller here. I will get it as well.

MadWorld - niche, although if high quality, will be bought by every hardcore gamer owning a Wii (as opposed to NMH); slow 600-1m seller.

Deadly Creatures - A total miss, too niche although of high quality somehow, will get a copy yet 400k tops.

The Conduit - The Wii 3rd party beacon so far; outstanding graphics and (most importantly) copntrols will warrant positive reviews (80+) and push it to at least 1-1.5m

Sin & Punishment 2 - New IP in the West (practically) although mainstream and with a wide appeal. If Nintendo advertises a lot, I can see this reaching 1m

Little King Story - :( I'm really sorry about this, probably the highest quality of all the above yet no marketing plus kiddy image will barely pull Zack & Wiki numbers.

@stof: I'd love to see MadWorld do over 1 Million and I think it can if everything goes well, it's got 500k AT LEAST in my opinion, hoping it can do a lot more

you don't know that.  We can talk about sales potential, but if you're talking about quality then you don't really know anything.  In fact there are 2 games on that list that have better pedigree than just about every game coming out this year on any system.  Mad World and Little King story are made by some of the best developers in Japan, even though they may not be totally mainstream.  Sin and Punishment is made by treasure which has a history of nothing but making awesome games like no other developer.

The other games are not sure things, as much as people hype the conduit we really don't know if it will be good and the history of the developers isn't even good.  House of the dead will probably be good, it's prety hard to screw it up.

I think you missed the point of the thread. We're predicting sales.

He's also completely oblivious to the fact that Tenchu is back in the hands of the people who originally made the series, and made it great.  Just because the last couple didn't fare well doesn't mean this one will be crap.  So far, it sounds like it's actually pretty good.

No first-party titles on that list. Therefore, miss. Seriously Nintendo - I want a core game that shows off the Wii's motion controls to the best of your ability while retaining the classic feel. Neither SMG (not radical enough) nor MP3 (lost non-linear essence of Metroid) nor Zelda (controls added late in development) achieved this.