Rygar - Miss. It's a port of a barely-remembered game, two strikes against it, despite whatever Tecmo does.

Tenchu 4 - Not sure - The game seems to have varying levels of quality, and the gameplay could be either irksome or very satisfying, and Tenchu Z was an abject failure

Dead Rising: Chop 'til You Drop - Miss - Low quality port

House of the Dead: Overkill - hit- See House of the Dead 2 & 3 Return, as well as the extra quality and grindhouse appeal

MadWorld - hit - the game seems to be getting a lot of promotion. I know people like to draw comparisons with No More Heroes and with God Hand, but it seems to be getting more notice, and it's quality will rise to the top

Deadly Creatures -not sure- it could really go either way, depending on how THQ advertises it

The Conduit -hit- it should get a decent amount of advertising, because of its budget, and it's quality shall shine forth

Sin & Punishment 2 (no release date yet) -hit- awesome retro revival

Little King Story -hit- it's Pikmin meets Animal Crossing meets My Life As a King. Unless XSeed totally drops the ball for promotion

On the top of my list is Little kings, Madworld and maybe, just maybe sonic.

I'll be getting MadWorld and S&P2 and mayyybe HotD out of those.

HotD should pass a million and so might Dead Rising depending on how it turns out. Wii owners seem to love zombies for some reason...
And if Red Steel can hit a million I'm sure The Conduit can.

It will really come down to how heavily marketed the games are ... Even though it wasn't a particularly good game, Ubisoft had the right idea with Red Steel and they paid a decent ammount of money and spent it well (on targeted marketing) and as a result Red Steel sold over a Million units on a fairly small userbase.

While I don't believe you can market your way to having a 5 Million selling game, it is entirely possible for most games to break 1 Million units if it is pushed hard enough ... If the game is good enough to get the support of the fanbase and gets marketed well several of these games could be breakout successes ... that's a pretty big if though.

Rygar - Miss

Tenchu 4 - 50/50 chance

Dead Rising: Chop 'til You Drop - 50/50 chance

House of the Dead: Overkill - hit

MadWorld - hit

Deadly Creatures - 50/50 chance

The Conduit - hit

Sin & Punishment 2 - not sure

Little King Story - miss

Definitely do not agree with your numbers for the Conduit. Will be under 1 million at the very least or are you predicting it to do better than Metroid Prime?

I agree with you for the most part Gamerace but I think than Madworld would do less than your prediction. It probably gonna do more like No more heroes. It could even do less cause the black and white make it feels even more niche than NMH.

I also think that House of the dead will do less because of the highter price tag. The million is still a possible thing especially if they advirtise it well.

Possibly. Metroid has always hinged upon it's single-player experience, and it actually sells worse if you dilute that for multiplayer (a la Metroid Prime Hunters), and multiplayer is usually the draw for the best-selling FPSes

for The Conduit, it all rests on how well they implement multiplayer, and how well they advertise, and they could do quite well for themselves

Rygar - 100k max. Few even heard of the original, which was good but not great even when it released.

Tenchu 4 - Well, this one depends on the quality of the game. The original Tenchu games sold well, and were fun. Not so much with the recent entries.

Dead Rising: Chop 'til You Drop - 600k. People who don't have a 360 will still enjoy the game. Also, it'll get a few from those who already bought it on 360, as it does have some new features (like new enemies) and motion controls.

House of the Dead: Overkill - 1.1 million. What can I say? Wii sells light-gun games well. It's also a new entry in a fairly popular series.

MadWorld - 1 million. Besides the hype it's been getting, I actually think the negative press it'll receive will help it, just like it does with the GTA games.

Deadly Creatures - At present, I'd say 300k lifetime, assuming little advertising, 1.5 million with advertising. I have an interview coming up with Rainbow Studios (the THQ team making the game) and their advertising plans are going to be one of the topics.

The Conduit - 2.2 million minimum. SEGA has said several times that they're planning a fairly sizable campaign for the game, and the Wii is sorely lacking in quality titles in this genre.

Sin & Punishment 2 - decent hit, at 500k. I also think that almost everyone who bought it on the VC will buy this one.

Little King Story - 150k--just the name alone is going to be enough to detract a lot of potential buyers.

Rygar - That's just a port of an old game, i really dont know what are developers expectations but personally i dont think it will do well, we're talking about 150k lifetime?

Tenchu 4 - Now ill be more optimistic about this title, it looks decent if it gets enough advertising (people would love to be a Ninja) and some considerable hype among gamers i can see it going at least gold , but this depends on quality if its good than it will sell. 500k !

Dead Rising, now there has been info about this game for a while, but most trailers and screens have been somewhat dissapointing, its been improving lately but is it enough. Zombie games are always popular among public (RE4 and RE:UC did extremely well on the Wii) so i think people might get this game, i see it getting Gold 500k minimum and sales around 800-1m optimistically.

House of the Dead, this game looks quality, SEGA did put loads of effort behind it, and all all rail shooters have sold well, i do see it making a million easily.

MadWorld - Very niche title, that might be quality, but sales it's a big unknown, it can do something like No More Heroes (because of its style) but there is some kind off hype behind it among gamers so who knows it might suprise us. But it will be a hit.

Deadly Creatures, i just dont see this game selling well, even if it is interesting i just dont know how many people would actually want to play this thing, even devs are unsure about it (just look what that THQ guy said). 300k so i thign ti will be dissapoitnig.

The Conduit this is the most hyped third party game on the Wii for a while, everything seeems epic about this game graphics, gameplay if it lives up to the expectations it will be a great success sales wise as well with minimum 2 milion sales if SEGA markets it properly, there is just such a demand for a game like that on the Wii (even if it's only a generic shooter)

Sin and Punishment, im really unsure about this title, its really interesting its first party Nintendo product so it should be somewhat succesful.