I expect a late in the year cut for sony so max of 12 min of 6.5

No don't stop, it gets better!

I'll endeavour to make a prediction now - to be dynamically updated many times before January 31st hehe. There's far too many variables and differing scenarios with 'butterfly effect' potential thoughout the year, but regardless this is how I see 2009 going;

Current Gap 7.97 million

1st Quarter: Jan - March

Without a PS3 price cut I see the 360 averaging a weekly gain of ~60k. 60k x 12 weeks ~8.72 million gap.

Variable: Killzone 2 impact.

2nd Quarter: April - June

I'm predicting a $50 PS3 price cut in April. Have no idea of how the public will view $349 vs $199. PS3 to see a spike in console sales for first 4 weeks, but not sustained. 360 averaging a weekly gain of ~20k. 20k x 12 weeks ~8.96 million gap. *Pulled out of ass.*

Variable: Price-cut actually occurring (lol), the $ value, whether it's a 'PS3 Slim'

3rd Quarter: July - September

*Crickets* - No price cuts from either side status quo remains unchanged. 360 averaging a weekly gain of ~30k due to price-cut affect wearing off. 30k x 12 weeks ~9.32 million gap.

Variable: No significant HW spikes due to exclusive releases.

4th Quarter: October - December

Things heat up...'PS3 Slim' emerges, second $50 price cut (PS3 RRP $299). Microsoft counters with $50 price cut of their own across all skus due to Valhalla chipset revision (360 RRP $149). PS3 to get a 2 million spike despite Microsoft's efforts. PS3 averaging a weekly gain of ~165k. 165k x 12 weeks ~7.32 million gap. *Pulled from ass again.*

Variable: Everything - the economy picking a $299 console over a $149 one, could just as easily go the other way. People seeing the value in Blu-ray. Blu-ray taking over etc. In short NFI.

Maximum - 9.32 million

Minimum - 7.32 million

I will say that I think Sony is a bit more telegraphed this year - MS could very well have a 'ace in the hole' they could be saving to announce mid-year such as a motion tracking controller/a new Halo game/a game from Blizzard/IPTV - they've got the money for it.

I would say that given the fact that the 360 has pulled away by a further 2 million over the past few months you would expect this trend to continue for at least the first quarter of 09.  I would think that realistically Sony will be doing well if they can sell on par with the 360 next year my honest opinion is that Sony would have done okay if they are remain sitting 8 million behind the 360 at the end of next year.

I think enough time has passed to show that the PS3 wont ever start selling like hotcakes, the 360 has nearly reached mainstream prices and once they reach there and get established the system will continue to sell well.  Everyone waited for the XBox 1 to overtake the PS2 in sales and it just never happened and I think the same will happen with the 360 and the PS3 people are waiting for a sales spike that wont ever occur.

As for the talk of when xxx game comes out, that will cause a small spike here and there, but seriously if it was about quality software being released then the WII wouldnt be sitting where it currently is.

I think if Sony can get their price down they could sell on par with the 360 so minimum lead would be around 7-8 million while maximum would be 12-13, my honest opinion will be around a 10 million lead at the end of 09.

Max - 10 million

Min - 6 million

A late PS3 price cut (post September 09') will be counter attacked by Microsoft who will price cut their SKU's just before the Xmas 2009 sales blitz.

I expect the gap between XBox 360 and PS3 by the end of 2009 will fall in between 8 million and 12 million in favour of XBox 360. More than likely the Xbox 360's lead will be 10 million + over PS3.

Kill Zone 2 will not be  a hardware seller on PS3. KZ2 will not have as big as an impact as MGS 4 or GT 5 Prologue. More than likely Kill Zone 2 will sell around 500k to 600k world wide for its first week and drop off just like all previous PS3/Xbox 360 games have done in the past. KZ2 sales willsell around 2 million ltd. Review scores for KZ2 will be in the 85 to 90 range

Halo Wars is launched on XBox 360 the week after KZ2 and I expect Halo Wars could be a surprise hit title on XBox 360 and RTS title could actually sell and do well on console. Halo Wars I expect will achieve KZ2 sales numbers and Halo Wars will sell around 2 million sales ltd. Halo Wars review scores will be in the 80 to 85 range.

While everyone is predicting Sony to drop PS3 price by $50-$100, don't forget MS has room to do the same thing on their Pro and Elite models.

Regardless of what Sony will do, MS will likely drop the price of the pro 360 to $249 during 3rd/4th quarter 09. The system is bundled with 2 games, so they can just take away one or both games and chop off $50 tomorrow.

Market share is also dependent on mind share as someone here had said. And mind share is also a factor of public perception on the health of the company. Sony is in really critical condition in this regard. It will be very difficult for the turn the perception tide when even Japanese analysts are calling on Sir Howard Stringer to do a revolutionary shake up of the company.

Most major successful company seems to go through a critical period once every several decades. Apple went through it. HP went through it. IBM went through it. GM, FORD, Chrysler, are trying to go through it. And surely Sony is having a hard time going through it. I wish Sony the best of luck as they deserve to remain a top name in electronics.

@theword

it is true that MS could drop price but I highly doubt it. Here is why. MS already cut all the systems prices along with the arcade last year. If they are to be gauged correctly MS would be in the same predicament SOny was in in 07. 360 is definitely cheaper to make then PS3 but not THAT much cheaper that they can do another price cut so soon.

As for Sony's current predicament. I think that the cuts are more so for the other sides of sony such as the its tv and hardware departments. Sony is split into so many different parts which is probably the reason of most of its financial woes. I am thinking alot of these cuts and restructuring will start there. Also This means they will have more viable funds due to them juggling less things. I am geussing more funds will be being pumped into the two most important things for ALL divisions of Sony...
PS3
BluRay

These are the most important because they feed into funds for all the other divisions such as movies, HD tvs, etc.

There is nothing Sony can really do with all the mounds of bad press streaming over the internet besides counteract it with positive press with all of the improvements they are doing over the last few years.

4 Mil min
10 Mil Max

Heh, that post was hilarious. :D

Check this one, http://www.bit-tech.net/gaming/2006/11/09/Procedural_Textures_Future_Gam/1

@Topic

7-10m