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Forums - Sales Discussion - What will be the maximum and minimum PS3->360 gap in 2009

Cueil on 04 January 2009
Louie said:
selnor said:
Louie said:
JaggedSac said:
Squilliam said:
I would say the minimum gap would be about 7,000,000 units and the maximum would be about 14,000,000 units.

 

This.

Well that would mean you expect the 360 to increase its gap to 14 million and the PS3 to outsell the 360 by 7 million in the second half of 2009?

 

I dont expect the gap to drop at all. There will be the odd couple of weeks during big games though. The momentum is with M$. Game stores here have already cut PS3 room to 2 sections in my City, 360 has 8 now generally and the Wii 13 at last visit on Jan 02nd.

 

I'd personally expect the gap to decrease to 6 million units as this is the PS3's third full year on the market and the Xbox360 should see a slower year next year. It's just the huge difference for me. You know, this year the gap didn't change that much. It was at 7 million at the beginning of the year, then decreased and is now at 8 million.

 

 

That's not very rational.  Through the first 8 months of the year the 360 was selling to a saturated market.  Their current price point is no where near saturation levels.  I think next year will be even bigger.  I also think if the gap hits that 10 million mark it'll likely just keep growing from there on.  Sony can't afford an early 100 dollar price cut and 50 bucks isn't going to work to well since they are close to the saturation point for that price already.  The more that Microsoft pulls away the more of a mind share they show that they have.  In the end all the awesome games in the world can't compete again what the common people think... just look at the Wii... The system has mind share and that's why it has market share.



 
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BTFeather55 on 04 January 2009
Cueil said:
Louie said:
selnor said:
Louie said:
JaggedSac said:
Squilliam said:
I would say the minimum gap would be about 7,000,000 units and the maximum would be about 14,000,000 units.

 

This.

Well that would mean you expect the 360 to increase its gap to 14 million and the PS3 to outsell the 360 by 7 million in the second half of 2009?

 

I dont expect the gap to drop at all. There will be the odd couple of weeks during big games though. The momentum is with M$. Game stores here have already cut PS3 room to 2 sections in my City, 360 has 8 now generally and the Wii 13 at last visit on Jan 02nd.

 

I'd personally expect the gap to decrease to 6 million units as this is the PS3's third full year on the market and the Xbox360 should see a slower year next year. It's just the huge difference for me. You know, this year the gap didn't change that much. It was at 7 million at the beginning of the year, then decreased and is now at 8 million.

 

 

That's not very rational.  Through the first 8 months of the year the 360 was selling to a saturated market.  Their current price point is no where near saturation levels.  I think next year will be even bigger.  I also think if the gap hits that 10 million mark it'll likely just keep growing from there on.  Sony can't afford an early 100 dollar price cut and 50 bucks isn't going to work to well since they are close to the saturation point for that price already.  The more that Microsoft pulls away the more of a mind share they show that they have.  In the end all the awesome games in the world can't compete again what the common people think... just look at the Wii... The system has mind share and that's why it has market share.

     The part I bolded is very true and why the other consoles face an uphill struggle to top it.

 



Heavens to Murgatoids.

forevercloud3000 on 04 January 2009
Gnizmo said:
And all of that is fine if that is what you think. However, the gap is currently 8 million. The maximum cannot be smaller than 8 million as a result.

 

How does that make sense?

By the end of the year alot of things could happen. I firmly believe that regardless of all that is happening that the PS3 will gain on the moementum gained by the 360's price cut.

2007 from October on, PS3 outsold 360 Worldwide. bringing down the massive lead 360 had from the early release of about 6.5-7million consoles. Sony brought that down all the way to 5million and bellow, and some of these sales were going on BEFORE PS3 cut price. 8 months into 2008 is how long this went on for. 360 cut price, cut all the way into the sweetspot of console prices. 200-150 is the price of mass market console selling.If the rules hold true, there is no more price cutting on a console at that price until it is seen as outdated and being replaced by a sucessor. Also, 360s are cheaper to make then PS3s, but not that cheap, MS will be loosing profits too.

Now PS3 most definitely is going for another price cut sometime this year. I hypothesis two of them, one early in the year, the other at christmas. It will be (early/late) 50/50, 50/100, or 100/50.

So Time has told us that PS3 with higher price point(So SOny is still not loosing money) but reasonably close to 360'd price(cut) equals Sony's PS3 selling more, enough to excellerate a 2million increase bringing 8-2=6million. Yet you must also take in account the accelerated rate of sales do to seasons, and market value of the consoles. 360's sales sped up faster the usual this christmas, so in effect I believe the PS3's sales will speed up as well this year enough to give another million to my hypothesis.

So in turn you get...

-Maximum:7million

-Minimum:5million



      

      

      

Greatness Awaits

PSN:Forevercloud (looking for Soul Sacrifice Partners!!!)

Fumanchu on 04 January 2009
forevercloud3000 said:
Gnizmo said:
And all of that is fine if that is what you think. However, the gap is currently 8 million. The maximum cannot be smaller than 8 million as a result.

 

How does that make sense?

By the end of the year alot of things could happen. I firmly believe that regardless of all that is happening that the PS3 will gain on the moementum gained by the 360's price cut.

2007 from October on, PS3 outsold 360 Worldwide. bringing down the massive lead 360 had from the early release of about 6.5-7million consoles. Sony brought that down all the way to 5million and bellow, and some of these sales were going on BEFORE PS3 cut price. 8 months into 2008 is how long this went on for. 360 cut price, cut all the way into the sweetspot of console prices. 200-150 is the price of mass market console selling.If the rules hold true, there is no more price cutting on a console at that price until it is seen as outdated and being replaced by a sucessor. Also, 360s are cheaper to make then PS3s, but not that cheap, MS will be loosing profits too.

Now PS3 most definitely is going for another price cut sometime this year. I hypothesis two of them, one early in the year, the other at christmas. It will be (early/late) 50/50, 50/100, or 100/50.

So Time has told us that PS3 with higher price point(So SOny is still not loosing money) but reasonably close to 360'd price(cut) equals Sony's PS3 selling more, enough to excellerate a 2million increase bringing 8-2=6million. Yet you must also take in account the accelerated rate of sales do to seasons, and market value of the consoles. 360's sales sped up faster the usual this christmas, so in effect I believe the PS3's sales will speed up as well this year enough to give another million to my hypothesis.

So in turn you get...

-Maximum:7million

-Minimum:5million

You keep basing your predictions on the end of year differences.  What year is it presently? What is the gap presently? What can be the ABSOLUTE minimum maximum prediction? 8 million!



nojustno on 04 January 2009
forevercloud3000 said:
Gnizmo said:
forevercloud3000 said:
I truly believe Sony is going to step their game up this year. It seems as if this is the year Sony starts laying down the law and cracking the whip on these lazy ass developers.

Sony's Plans for 09(Educated Guess):
-Slash 50 from price early in year, another 50 from price later in year.
-Bring Marketing up to par with Microsofts on their games and hardware.
-Release more games then ever thought imaginable
-Making developers actually utilize the system's strengths such as adding trophies(if EVERY game has Achievements, they should also have Trophies.). Improvements on online experience such as HOME and the XMB in general. Utilize screen shots and in game music more!

With all this I believe it goes something like...
Minimum:5 million units
Maximum:7 million units

 This is what I love about fanboys. A few have done this so I am not trying to pick solely on this one, but I love how the maximum value has already been exceeded. Here we are in 2009 with an 8 million gap, but that doesn't slow some of them down. Guys, please be at least a little reasonable with your predictions. Quite obviously the gap will be at least 8 million at one point.

 OT: It is hard to say. I am normally loathe to make predicitions a year in advance just so I can keep from making myself look foolish. That said I will try to give a reasonable range. I would say it will be between 6-10 million the entire year.

I dont know why you are trying to use my statement for your own little personal rant but this Topic is asking for our OPINIONS. In my opinion...

THe gap will most definitely close at least some this year. We are talking about  by the end of 2009 what the gap will be right? I mean PS3 sells better at a higher price point then say if the 360 was at the same. PS3 needs to cut price, yes, but it doesn't have to exaclty MATCH 360 Price to OUTSELL it. Look at 2007 christmas and early last year for proof.

I thing the price cut will assuredly happen because rumor has it cost to make the PS3 is drastically going down. The cell has gotten cheaper to make, they have found a new way of making BD drives to make them less costly. In actuallity I think this cost went down a lot earlier then Sony had been letting on. I predict that they have been selling somewhere from about even since late last year. This year the cost is going down still so you know what time it is? PRICE CUT TIME!

PS3 yet again has a far better lineup between it and the 360 in the forseeable future. 360 might pull some awesome exclusives out it's ass but they have yet to be seen so I cannot judge based on that.

Lastly Sony has said in some previous articles in the last month that they too agree that their marketing is really poor. They said going into the new year they would be planning on changing this.

So those are Sony's Three Shortcomings all being cleaned up...

1. Price:going down this year to a much more suitable marketing range. Microsoft said there wont be another price cut like last for some time. That eliminates the fear of MS just undercutting Sony again anytime soon.

2. Games: Definitely better then 07 and an upgrade from 08's. PS3 once again this year is looking to have more AAA titles then 360 just like last year.

3. Marketing: Improvements are being made to better this situation

So yea, PS3 is going to do better this year then 360. I don't think there is any going backwards from here.

 

 

That's where you're wrong.

Think about it, after YEARS of loss they want/need some profit. I just can't imagine them selling ps3 at a loss for another year, which will happen if they cut price again. This business primarily is a money game, not a marketshare one.

Now look, it might still happen, but it certainly wont be $100 which is the minimum they need to cut if they want to outsell the 360. $50 cut won't be enough to win over potential arcade buyers imo.

Oh and games don't have that much influence unless they're killer apps (Halo 3, FFXIII, MGS4, GTA IV). Guess what, ps3 doesnt have much of those this year. Neither does 360.




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Gnizmo on 04 January 2009
forevercloud3000 said:
Gnizmo said:
And all of that is fine if that is what you think. However, the gap is currently 8 million. The maximum cannot be smaller than 8 million as a result.

 

How does that make sense?

By the end of the year alot of things could happen. I firmly believe that regardless of all that is happening that the PS3 will gain on the moementum gained by the 360's price cut.

2007 from October on, PS3 outsold 360 Worldwide. bringing down the massive lead 360 had from the early release of about 6.5-7million consoles. Sony brought that down all the way to 5million and bellow, and some of these sales were going on BEFORE PS3 cut price. 8 months into 2008 is how long this went on for. 360 cut price, cut all the way into the sweetspot of console prices. 200-150 is the price of mass market console selling.If the rules hold true, there is no more price cutting on a console at that price until it is seen as outdated and being replaced by a sucessor. Also, 360s are cheaper to make then PS3s, but not that cheap, MS will be loosing profits too.

Now PS3 most definitely is going for another price cut sometime this year. I hypothesis two of them, one early in the year, the other at christmas. It will be (early/late) 50/50, 50/100, or 100/50.

So Time has told us that PS3 with higher price point(So SOny is still not loosing money) but reasonably close to 360'd price(cut) equals Sony's PS3 selling more, enough to excellerate a 2million increase bringing 8-2=6million. Yet you must also take in account the accelerated rate of sales do to seasons, and market value of the consoles. 360's sales sped up faster the usual this christmas, so in effect I believe the PS3's sales will speed up as well this year enough to give another million to my hypothesis.

So in turn you get...

-Maximum:7million

-Minimum:5million

 You misunderstand the question then. This is not asking for a range at the end of the year. This is asking at what point will the difference be the largest? At what point will it be the smallest? So using your numbers the answer would be that it will peak at 8 million, and then at the end of the year be at 5 million. Get it?



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

forevercloud3000 on 04 January 2009

BluRay diods are now cheaper to make. Going from 125 dollars down to 8 dollars.

http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/features/blue-laser-costs-coming-down-could-ps3-price-cut-be-far-behind/70329/?biz=1

PS3 has lost some wieght already by cutting Backwards Compatibility, SD Card readers, USB ports, etc. They estimate sony had only been loosing about $40 per console now.
http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=204867

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6202681.html

There are also rumors of the cell being cheaper to make then estimated now.

Sony is no longer selling a $840 PS3 to you for $600. Those days are gone, with prices going down and manufacturers trying to make there items more affordable in a dire economy I estimate you are being sold a $450-380 PS3 for $400. This is just talking about last year. This year it will only go down more.

Analysts say sony can break even next year. if the system costs 350 by march they can sell it for just that. By Christmas you are looking at 300.



      

      

      

Greatness Awaits

PSN:Forevercloud (looking for Soul Sacrifice Partners!!!)

forevercloud3000 on 04 January 2009

@Gizmo
OOOOOOOOH now I get it. His Header says differently. I thought he was saying how big would the gap be by the end of the year. He really did not phrased that right then.

Maximum:9million
Minimum:5million

The rest of my argument still holds true for this too also....



      

      

      

Greatness Awaits

PSN:Forevercloud (looking for Soul Sacrifice Partners!!!)

EdGuila on 04 January 2009

By the end of 09 DVD line will be on it's last foot. You can only compress so much HD gaming onto a DVD. There is a reason why HD movies required a jump from DVD to BD. Come 2010 the 360 will be a row boat without an oar in the middle of a lake. The PS3 will be at probably 35-40 million units making it worth while for developers to release themselves from the contraints of the DVD and develop freely. Short life cycles are nothing new to Xbox so makes the chances of a premature dumping of the 360 by MS more likely.



PSN: EDguila

PS3 library:  Motorstorm, Assasin's Creed, Orange Box, Uncharted:DF, Metal Gear Solid 4, Resistance:FOM, Rachet & Clank Future:ToD,

Near future: Folklore, SOCOM Confrontation, BioShock, Little Big Planet, Resistance 2.

nojustno on 04 January 2009
EdGuila said:
By the end of 09 DVD line will be on it's last foot. You can only compress so much HD gaming onto a DVD. There is a reason why HD movies required a jump from DVD to BD. Come 2010 the 360 will be a row boat without an oar in the middle of a lake. The PS3 will be at probably 35-40 million units making it worth while for developers to release themselves from the contraints of the DVD and develop freely. Short life cycles are nothing new to Xbox so makes the chances of a premature dumping of the 360 by MS more likely.

 

stopped reading there