I'll endeavour to make a prediction now - to be dynamically updated many times before January 31st hehe. There's far too many variables and differing scenarios with 'butterfly effect' potential thoughout the year, but regardless this is how I see 2009 going;
Current Gap 7.97 million
1st Quarter: Jan - March
Without a PS3 price cut I see the 360 averaging a weekly gain of ~60k. 60k x 12 weeks ~8.72 million gap.
Variable: Killzone 2 impact.
2nd Quarter: April - June
I'm predicting a $50 PS3 price cut in April. Have no idea of how the public will view $349 vs $199. PS3 to see a spike in console sales for first 4 weeks, but not sustained. 360 averaging a weekly gain of ~20k. 20k x 12 weeks ~8.96 million gap. *Pulled out of ass.*
Variable: Price-cut actually occurring (lol), the $ value, whether it's a 'PS3 Slim'
3rd Quarter: July - September
*Crickets* - No price cuts from either side status quo remains unchanged. 360 averaging a weekly gain of ~30k due to price-cut affect wearing off. 30k x 12 weeks ~9.32 million gap.
Variable: No significant HW spikes due to exclusive releases.
4th Quarter: October - December
Things heat up...'PS3 Slim' emerges, second $50 price cut (PS3 RRP $299). Microsoft counters with $50 price cut of their own across all skus due to Valhalla chipset revision (360 RRP $149). PS3 to get a 2 million spike despite Microsoft's efforts. PS3 averaging a weekly gain of ~165k. 165k x 12 weeks ~7.32 million gap. *Pulled from ass again.*
Variable: Everything - the economy picking a $299 console over a $149 one, could just as easily go the other way. People seeing the value in Blu-ray. Blu-ray taking over etc. In short NFI.
Maximum - 9.32 million
Minimum - 7.32 million
I will say that I think Sony is a bit more telegraphed this year - MS could very well have a 'ace in the hole' they could be saving to announce mid-year such as a motion tracking controller/a new Halo game/a game from Blizzard/IPTV - they've got the money for it.
