Dude, you're gonna lose. There's no way Alan Wake is gonna get 10+ higher average ranking than Heavy Rain.

To me Alan Wake looks like a new Resident Evil. Not a Resident Evil 5 - Resident Evil, more like a old fashioned Resident Evil. Resident Evil 5 looks more like a 3rd Person shooter than a survival game, which is cool, because I like shooters, but Alan Wake has a great atmosphere and it looks like you actually have to think what to do in that game.

What I have seen about heavy rain was the gameplay in a house. The player had to press the right button at the right moment. So a "X" appeared on the screen and the player had to push that button. Well this is something that is nice to have here and there in a videogame, but not all the time. That just isn't something I love to do while playing.

graphical, both look great. End of discussion. I am tired to argue about some textures miles away, or talking about resolution etc. (Epic threads about Gears of War² vs Resistance² graphics) We can't complain about the graphics for both games. So, let's be happy.

Alan Wake will quite easily get +90%, and my long-term perdiction is 93%.

Heavy Rain is an awkward experimental game by some unknown French studio who made obscure adventure games in the past, it can at best get 82% but most likely 75%-ish on Gamerankings. It will score and sell better than Lair, but much like it, it's big selling point is the grafix and that doesn't bode well.

So with a 10% difference on the bet I have a healthy margin.

The Heavy Rain guys are spitting out gameplay clips of the demo they're showing. Usually games that will disappoint does exactly this (Haze and Alone in the Dark comes to mind). While the Alan Wake team is keeping the mystery alive by not revealing too much of the story and gameplay (which they have explained on the official forums), and IMO they're acting much more proffesional.

The Max Payne games averaged an 87%, the first getting an 89 and the second getting an 84. These are the only two games from remedy Entertainment I can find.

Quantic Dream made Indigo Prophecy, which averaged an 84%.

I think you are seeing a huge difference between the pedigrees of these developers when there isn't one.

edit: and about your asertion that showing gameplay clips is somehow detrimental to the quality of the end product I call bullshit on that as well.  I recall seeing a good number of gameplay clips from LBP, GeoW2, and many other games.  Lots of games show gameplay clips from demos, that is a ridiculous reason to think a game won't deliver.

You kinda nailed me there lol. I bet they were lucky with the reviews. But the difference is still huge between the pedigrees. Max Payne sold rufly 5 million copies while Indigo Prophecy probably sold a couple of hundred thousands.

Shooter that pioneered bullet-time vs. curio.

The disparity in sales is hardly a surprise.

This time it's horror vs. thriller, a more level playing field, and so I think your sales analogy of MP vs. IP is irrelevant.

Heavy Rain is NOT a quick time game, that's like saying God of War is a puzzle game!

The fact is we know nothing about Heavy Rain, but it looks awesome.

I am not Amused.

By the constant lack of gameplay footage for epic games now an days. Not amused at all. -.-

Ok. Listen.
This is the first time I watched Heavy Rain videos...
Before I only saw Screenshots... and they blow me away! Awesome graphics!

But now, watching videos:
WTF...

Horrible Lipsync. Lips movement is awful.

Realistic experience? You must be kidding me.

This kills the game for me.
They better work on this or it's unplayable.

Hell, Mass Effect (released in 2007) had better lipsync with dialogues.
We could believe the scene in Mass Effect. I CAN'T WITH HEAVY RAIN. It feels stiff and robotic.

Don't know why, but I think Alan Wake will have the same problem.

Facial expression and talking behavior ARE the most important things on a Psychological Thriller Game.