Actually the Wii Sports package deal has been highly questioned by pretty much everybody in that everybody knows the sales are artificially inflated.

And we all know that Halo 3 will sell well packaged or not, it will merely sell better if packaged. Thats common sense. 

I just noticed SMG passed Halo 3 in Others about 2 weeks ago, so I thought I'd give this 7 month old thread a bump.

I think thesource's predictions are looking mostly pretty strong, but 18mil and 12mil lifetime seems a tad ambitious for both games to me now. Galaxy will definitely pass Halo 3 world wide though. Depending on a 360 pricedrop and other holiday factors, my (very) rough estimation has SMG pasing Halo 3 sometime in the summer or fall of next year.

I see Halo 3's lifetime total being closer to 10.5 or 11 million, mostly because Call of Duty IV (and possibly Call of Duty V) stole a lot of Halo's thunder/selling power--probably more than most of us initially expected.

I've got more wildy speculative theories about Galaxy's final total. Basically, I think it will go on to sell a good 14 or 15 mil, but it will lose a some of its selling power when Miyamoto announces Galaxy 2 at next years E3.

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg2=All&game2=Halo+3+-+X360&reg3=All&game3=Call+of+Duty+4%3A+Modern+Warfare+-+X360&weeks=100

If the data is correct I just don't see Galaxy passing Halo 3 in sales... I can chance my view on the holydays, but...

SMG just passed Halo 3 in the Others market.

I'm also interested to see if anybody has/will change their predictions now that we're a few months in.

I would say now:

2M japan

6M US

4M others

So it would end at 11M

I'm not taking much risk I think...

No-one has taken into consideration that there aren't enough marioboys, while there are heaps of halobois. SMG will never make 5M WW.

Man was I wrong in this thread...

Galaxy launched at 260k in Japan and has basically quadrupled that (960k right now). It may get to 1.3 million or 1.5 million in Japan eventually but its not going to get much past that. Launch was ~630k in the Americas and it has already hit 6x that figure here. I think it may be able to hit 6-7 million in the Americas, depending on when it gets 'players choice' treatment. Others, this is Nintendo's first 'winning' console so hard to say, but it can probably get to 3-4 million.

In other words, it can top Super Mario 64 numbers and become the best selling 3D Mario game of all time with sales in the neighborhood of 10.5-12.5 million worldwide.

Halo 3... Might hit 150k in Japan. I'd got 130k though. In the Americas, its doubled its week one sales compared to the 6x week one growth factor that Galaxy has. Xbox 360 is tracking to hit ~18-28 million in the Americas...I can see it at 7-8 million in the Americas something in the 1/4 to 4/9 360 owners here will have the game. My hunch is 360 hits 24  million in the Americas and Halo 3 ends up at like 7.2 million. In Others, sales have more than doubled from week one, but I don't see it topping 3.5 million.

Realistically speaking, both could end up around 11 million which would mean Halo 3 is more important to 360 than Galaxy is to Wii. 

Actually you could still be correct, Reggie essentially made the claims you did on the first post (No real numbers if I remember clearly though) However if you note that that nintendo intends to see the Wii user base double by the April 2009 and another main-Mario title isn't released on the Wii I'm certain this could reach those numbers.

I'm almost certian the numbers will be around:

21 million - America
17 million - Others
12 million - Japan

As you said this is Nintendo's first winning console in Europe so maybe the adoption rate for this title could stick.

Also the established user base could preform the mythical process of moving up tiers.

In a way it could just pull a New Super Mario Bros. Then again so could many of the other Wii games like Mario Kart, Brawl and Battallion Wars...

If I see BWii start picking up again I'll toss my hat for Nintendo's amazing business practicies.

I agree with the naked guy with the Game Boy fanny pack on from about 11 posts up. I still think Galaxy can do it in a couple of Christmases. I think each Christmas boost will boost Galaxy/Brawl/Kart really hard, even harder than the 360 boost will boost Halo 3, because each Christmas Halo 3 will have more FPS competition, but there will never be platforming competition of Galaxy's caliber this generation. People will be buying Gears 2 next Christmas instead of Halo 3.