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Forums - Sales Discussion - Super Mario Galaxy vs. Halo 3 - Which game will sell more units overall?

Bodhesatva said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ckmlb said:
I think you are really overestimating Mario's sales.

Super Mario Galaxy:

Japan- 1,800,000 (Not casual enough to sell more)
USA- 3,500,000 (Will sell very well but not even close to non traditional titles)
Others- 2,000,000 (Will sell well)
Total- 7,300,000

Halo 3:

Japan- 150,000 (Only 360 hardcore and some adopters)
USA- 8,000,000 (Biggest 360 game of the year)
Others- 1,500,000 (Will sell well in the UK and Australia and decent in other parts)
Total- 9,960,000

Hahahahahaha, you really only expect 1.8 million in Japan for mario? Hahahahahahahahahaha


Mario 64 and Mario Sunshine each did less than that (Sunshine considerably so). It's not an outlandish claim, Avinash.

According to VGChartz, SM64's Japanese sales were about 2 million of about 12 million, or 1/6th of the total.  As for the Nintendo 64, Japan got 5.5 million of 33 million total, or 1/6th of the total.  Sunshine sold .87 million in Japan out of 5.91 million total, or approximately 15%.  The Gamecube sold 4 million in Japan of 21.6 million total, or about 19%

(A) Super Mario 64 did as well in Japan, relatively speaking, as outside of it.  Super Mario Sunshine did, admittedly, somewhat worse.   
(B) SM64's sales in Japan were held back -- a lot -- due to the small install base of the N64 there.  Ditto SMS. 
(C) The Wii is insanely popular in Japan.  In fact, almost DS Lite popular. 
(D) Wii sales in Japan currently stand at about 82% of American Wii sales, based on VGChartz's Compare Consoles graph.  (As of now, the graphs end at 2.98 and 3.64, respectively)
(E) Based on past performance and (D), it is most reasonable to suppose that, if the J-Wii to A-Wii ratio stays similar, Super Mario Galaxy will sell not less than 70-75% as many copies in Japan as in America. 
(F) 1.8 is 51.4% of 3.5. 
(G) I believe that ckmlb is greatly overestimating the Japanese obsession with casual games -- that specifically, he is presuming that that obsession will cause them to disregard games that are not casual.  Whatever "casual" is. 



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Final-Fan said:
Bodhesatva said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ckmlb said:
I think you are really overestimating Mario's sales.

Super Mario Galaxy:

Japan- 1,800,000 (Not casual enough to sell more)
USA- 3,500,000 (Will sell very well but not even close to non traditional titles)
Others- 2,000,000 (Will sell well)
Total- 7,300,000

Halo 3:

Japan- 150,000 (Only 360 hardcore and some adopters)
USA- 8,000,000 (Biggest 360 game of the year)
Others- 1,500,000 (Will sell well in the UK and Australia and decent in other parts)
Total- 9,960,000

Hahahahahaha, you really only expect 1.8 million in Japan for mario? Hahahahahahahahahaha


Mario 64 and Mario Sunshine each did less than that (Sunshine considerably so). It's not an outlandish claim, Avinash.

According to VGChartz, SM64's Japanese sales were about 2 million of about 12 million, or 1/6th of the total. As for the Nintendo 64, Japan got 5.5 million of 33 million total, or 1/6th of the total. Sunshine sold .87 million in Japan out of 5.91 million total, or approximately 15%. The Gamecube sold 4 million in Japan of 21.6 million total, or about 19%

(A) Super Mario 64 did as well in Japan, relatively speaking, as outside of it. Super Mario Sunshine did, admittedly, somewhat worse.
(B) SM64's sales in Japan were held back -- a lot -- due to the small install base of the N64 there. Ditto SMS.
(C) The Wii is insanely popular in Japan. In fact, almost DS Lite popular.
(D) Wii sales in Japan currently stand at about 82% of American Wii sales, based on VGChartz's Compare Consoles graph. (As of now, the graphs end at 2.98 and 3.64, respectively)
(E) Based on past performance and (D), it is most reasonable to suppose that, if the J-Wii to A-Wii ratio stays similar, Super Mario Galaxy will sell not less than 70-75% as many copies in Japan as in America.
(F) 1.8 is 51.4% of 3.5.
(G) I believe that ckmlb is greatly overestimating the Japanese obsession with casual games -- that specifically, he is presuming that that obsession will cause them to disregard games that are not casual. Whatever "casual" is.


I'm not denying any of this. I agree that 1.8 million is probably low. I said that Ck's claim wasn't unreasonable. I do actually choose my words carefully; I'm not a person who thinks any synonym is as good as another.

Yes, there are lots of mitigating factors, many of which you listed here, that make me believe that SM64 levels (or above) are much more likely than Sunshine levels. I think that's likely. But that doesn't make Ck's claim unreasonable -- again, perhaps not likely, but certainly not unreasonable.

Look at Ck's claim, then look at the response to it. Apparently, Ck's claim is hilariously off, according to Avinash. Does that seem appropriate to you, given that Ck's estimation actually assumes that Super Mario Galaxy will match the performance of the best selling Super Mario platforming game in 15 years? I'm going to repeat that for emphasis: in Japan, Ck believes that Super Mario Galaxy will perform as well as the best selling Super Mario game since 1992's Super Mario World. That is definitely not unreasonable.



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Bodhesatva said:
Final-Fan said:
Bodhesatva said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ckmlb said:



I'm not denying any of this. I agree that 1.8 million is probably low. I said that Ck's claim wasn't unreasonable. I do actually choose my words carefully; I'm not a person who thinks any synonym is as good as another.

Yes, there are lots of mitigating factors, many of which you listed here, that make me believe that SM64 levels (or above) are much more likely than Sunshine levels. I think that's likely. But that doesn't make Ck's claim unreasonable -- again, perhaps not likely, but certainly not unreasonable.

Look at Ck's claim, then look at the response to it. Apparently, Ck's claim is hilariously off, according to Avinash. Does that seem appropriate to you, given that Ck's estimation actually assumes that Super Mario Galaxy will match the performance of the best selling Super Mario platforming game in 15 years? I'm going to repeat that for emphasis: in Japan, Ck believes that Super Mario Galaxy will perform as well as the best selling Super Mario game since 1992's Super Mario World. That is definitely not unreasonable.


Not in relation to the number of consoles that game can be played on in Japan. 

But, on the other hand, I can certainly get on board with the idea that his estimate shouldn't have gotten him laughed out of the room.  Just a polite, "are you sure you've checked your numbers?"

 [edit for clarity:  Ck's claim does not assume that SMG will perform as well as SM64, speaking relatively to its console's probable install base.]



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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It occurred to me that we may be talking at cross purposes.  Although I think that ckmlb's number estimates are far too low, what I was actually objecting to was his distribution of numbers -- that is, not how many were sold in Japan or America but how many were sold in Japan versus America.  Just wanted to make sure that was clear. 



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

i get a feeling that galaxy won't sell all that well in the states. gameplay appears to be an issue here--i've shown it to a few people, and they are all feel that walking around upside down and jumping from planet to planet would be a nuisance.

however, i think super mario galaxy will be a massive hit in japan; with the wii's popularity, many people who haven't touched mario in ages will give it a try and will simply be the #1 game outside of wii sports. think the casuals who have come back to nintendo. think families with the adults in their 30s. i think it will completely disrupt the trend set by the couple of previous incarnation of mario games in japan.

the two previous might seem a little contradictory... my defense is that culture-wise, the japanese are closer to video games as opposed to americans.

but really, the massive user base of wii is gonna completely disrupt the trend of the two previous mario games regardless. i anticipate galaxy sales in the region of 12-15 mln. halo, in the region of 11-13mln.

galaxy wins.



the Wii is an epidemic.

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Bodhesatva said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ckmlb said:
I think you are really overestimating Mario's sales.

Super Mario Galaxy:

Japan- 1,800,000 (Not casual enough to sell more)
USA- 3,500,000 (Will sell very well but not even close to non traditional titles)
Others- 2,000,000 (Will sell well)
Total- 7,300,000

Halo 3:

Japan- 150,000 (Only 360 hardcore and some adopters)
USA- 8,000,000 (Biggest 360 game of the year)
Others- 1,500,000 (Will sell well in the UK and Australia and decent in other parts)
Total- 9,960,000

Hahahahahaha, you really only expect 1.8 million in Japan for mario? Hahahahahahahahahaha


Mario 64 and Mario Sunshine each did less than that (Sunshine considerably so). It's not an outlandish claim, Avinash.


 Yes it is, N64 and GCN were not the Wii, they were never as successful as the Wii, now a system that was as successful as the Wii, has had a Super Mario game sell almost 5 million in Japan, i'm not saying galaxy will sell like NSMB, but to say it will sell as poorly as earlier mario's is ridiculous



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Lingyis said:
culture-wise, the japanese are closer to video games as opposed to americans.

Do you mean simply that most of the biggest names in gaming -- Nintendo, Sony, Square-Enix, Capcom, Konami, etc. -- are Japanese themselves?  Because I don't think there's much other evidence.  We're almost as technophiliac as they are, and video games themselves are very American. 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Final-Fan said:
misterd:

If I'd seen that advertisement, I might have been too ashamed to buy the game. Glad I didn't.

I second that. Probably the worst advertisement I've ever seen.



Currently Playing: Skies of Arcadia Legends (GC), Dragon Quest IV (DS)

Last Game beaten: The Rub Rabbits(DS)

nintendo_fanboy said:
Final-Fan said:
misterd:

If I'd seen that advertisement, I might have been too ashamed to buy the game. Glad I didn't.

I second that. Probably the worst advertisement I've ever seen.


*ahem*

http://youtube.com/watch?v=YdAIt4MgnHc



Wow. "Buy our weirdly-shaped super soaker knockoff, it's disgusting to get hit with!"

But still, it's more of a bad product than a bad ad.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom!