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Forums - Sales Discussion - Super Mario Galaxy vs. Halo 3 - Which game will sell more units overall?

http://www.1up.com/do/feature?cId=3149992



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

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ok it's enough, you convinced me. But I wonder what is worse, seeing such stupid ads or no ads at all...



Currently Playing: Skies of Arcadia Legends (GC), Dragon Quest IV (DS)

Last Game beaten: The Rub Rabbits(DS)

Lingyis said:
i get a feeling that galaxy won't sell all that well in the states. gameplay appears to be an issue here--i've shown it to a few people, and they are all feel that walking around upside down and jumping from planet to planet would be a nuisance.

I have to admit I am baffled by a reaction like this, playing in an upside down world or a world that works wildly different from our own is the allure of the game for me. It creates so many new possibilities for puzzles and creative thinking/solutions and is almost gaurunteed to generate scenarios we have not seen before, as well as new twists on old favorites etc... I have to wonder if a person having this type of reaction is either not a gamer or has already made up their mind. It is not impossible for someone to genuinely think this, but it just seems to go against the basic allure of gaming in general to me.

 

Obviously to each his own, but I can offer a counter-anecdote of my own. Without giving advanced information on the game and just saying I want to show you a video, I have shown the videos to my brother & his gf and parents (they were in town for a wedding, and all four are the definition of non-gamer), as well as probably 6 (to be on the low end) friends who are all into gaming at varying degrees with vastly different tastes and interests in games, the videos from E3 (and before that for most). The general reaction to the videos follows a downright predictable pattern.

  1. "Oh! Its a Mario game?", 50/50 they insert a comment about how far they have come with the graphics.
  2. "Wow!, He is in space?"
  3. They stare at the screen with huge grins as mario leaps from planetoid to planetoid and then runs on to the side of a platform and then runs down a path that is turning sideways, etc..
  4. "That looks fun!"

PS - I have a laptop I pretty much always have with me, so it is pretty easy to show people the videos...not that I carry it just for that purpose, but I happen to have them on their for convenience lol

PPS - I am not sure if any of you have seen this video, it is one of the better Trailers.

Edit: trying to edit the link, having troubles, one moment plz

 Edit: Here it is...



To Each Man, Responsibility
Final-Fan said:

http://www.1up.com/do/feature?cId=3149992


The only thing i want from this collection are the shades, and they apparently aren't for sale! Wow, way to get my all stoked for some totally radical shades, only to take them away. Major bummer, man. 



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

Final-Fan said:
Lingyis said:
culture-wise, the japanese are closer to video games as opposed to americans.

Do you mean simply that most of the biggest names in gaming -- Nintendo, Sony, Square-Enix, Capcom, Konami, etc. -- are Japanese themselves? Because I don't think there's much other evidence. We're almost as technophiliac as they are, and video games themselves are very American.


 well, a statement like that is never exactly scientific.  i'm kinda saying it based on my experience with my friends. i spend the first half of my life in asia (macau), where video games seems to be a much bigger part of our lives than over here in north america, more so than what i have seen in north america, where i'm spending the second half of my life (well, actually, it's more like 60% by now).

video games just seems like a bigger deal there, since i never get to play any sports for real simply because there's no land.  so for recreation, it's basically computer games and video games, and it's pretty much the only thing you talk about other than school work.  japan is not quite as bad as macau when it comes to land availability, but i'm sure certain parts of japan would have that problem to some degree.  tokyo i imagine so.

i can go on and talk about my observations in college, but really, it's just an overall feeling, and i base my judgement on them.

proportionately speaking, more japanese play video games than americans (from sales figures).  another sign that japanese care more about games is that they have at least 2 game tracking agencies, that release their data weekly.  here you have NPD, and they charge you a fee for that.  what you said about video game companies is another.  none of these is exactly strong evidence, but things like these add up, and that's what i mean by "culture-wise", japanese are probably closer to video games than americans.  

technology-wise, i think americans are ahead.  not necessarily in terms of using gadgets, but in terms of being able to bring technology to the marketplace and using them to create new content. 

 



the Wii is an epidemic.

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Sqrl said:
Lingyis said:
i get a feeling that galaxy won't sell all that well in the states. gameplay appears to be an issue here--i've shown it to a few people, and they are all feel that walking around upside down and jumping from planet to planet would be a nuisance.

I have to admit I am baffled by a reaction like this, playing in an upside down world or a world that works wildly different from our own is the allure of the game for me. It creates so many new possibilities for puzzles and creative thinking/solutions and is almost gaurunteed to generate scenarios we have not seen before, as well as new twists on old favorites etc... I have to wonder if a person having this type of reaction is either not a gamer or has already made up their mind. It is not impossible for someone to genuinely think this, but it just seems to go against the basic allure of gaming in general to me.

 

Obviously to each his own, but I can offer a counter-anecdote of my own. Without giving advanced information on the game and just saying I want to show you a video, I have shown the videos to my brother & his gf and parents (they were in town for a wedding, and all four are the definition of non-gamer), as well as probably 6 (to be on the low end) friends who are all into gaming at varying degrees with vastly different tastes and interests in games, the videos from E3 (and before that for most). The general reaction to the videos follows a downright predictable pattern.

  1. "Oh! Its a Mario game?", 50/50 they insert a comment about how far they have come with the graphics.
  2. "Wow!, He is in space?"
  3. They stare at the screen with huge grins as mario leaps from planetoid to planetoid and then runs on to the side of a platform and then runs down a path that is turning sideways, etc..
  4. "That looks fun!"

PS - I have a laptop I pretty much always have with me, so it is pretty easy to show people the videos...not that I carry it just for that purpose, but I happen to have them on their for convenience lol

PPS - I am not sure if any of you have seen this video, it is one of the better Trailers.

Edit: trying to edit the link, having troubles, one moment plz

Edit: Here it is...



I don't know. So for me, when I watch the trailers, all I can think of are negatives. I don't even know why. The crazy upside worlds. The totally disjoint planets. And they're tiny planets. I mean, why are the planets so small that a plumber can traverse half of it in a few seconds? I guess my main complaint is that you jump from one planet to another and the "theme" of the planet/galaxy/world completely changes. I'm worried that that would cause a disjoint feel in gameplay.

One specific example: in the trailer you showed, there's a part where mario collects coins on a twisted path, shaped like a helix. so when i saw that, i just thought: that is so unnecessary. plus the fact that the path is like the same size as the planets...

Another example: mario whips from one planet, to another, to another (early on in the clip) all within a span of a few seconds. all those planets have different "themes", it looks like. and that is what i mean by the possibility of a disjoint feel.

In the clip i didn't see an upside-down mario. Hopefully there aren't that many instances of those, because while traversing the surface of a planet would be fun, spending lots of time upside down isn't. even walking around a planet could make you feel disoriented.

Maybe somehow those trailers that are meant to show off diversity happen to make the game seem disjoint. Maybe when you actually play the worlds (galaxies) it all comes together and makes sense. Which would make the game utterly amazing. I'm very interested to see just what Miyamoto had in mind. Especially since this feeling of disjoint might be mitigated--or better, become an integral part of the experience--with the design of wiimote gestures, making you feel as though you really are traveling through space.

but we don't know that yet. so i'm just commenting on what i HAVE seen so far, and my worries are rather major. basically, 2 worries. 1) being disoriented and 2) feling disjoint gameplay. 2) might be a non-issue if the design is great, but 1) might not go away.



the Wii is an epidemic.

Lingyis said:
Sqrl said:
Lingyis said:



I don't know. So for me, when I watch the trailers, all I can think of are negatives. I don't even know why. The crazy upside worlds. The totally disjoint planets. And they're tiny planets. I mean, why are the planets so small that a plumber can traverse half of it in a few seconds? I guess my main complaint is that you jump from one planet to another and the "theme" of the planet/galaxy/world completely changes. I'm worried that that would cause a disjoint feel in gameplay.

One specific example: in the trailer you showed, there's a part where mario collects coins on a twisted path, shaped like a helix. so when i saw that, i just thought: that is so unnecessary. plus the fact that the path is like the same size as the planets...

Another example: mario whips from one planet, to another, to another (early on in the clip) all within a span of a few seconds. all those planets have different "themes", it looks like. and that is what i mean by the possibility of a disjoint feel.

In the clip i didn't see an upside-down mario. Hopefully there aren't that many instances of those, because while traversing the surface of a planet would be fun, spending lots of time upside down isn't. even walking around a planet could make you feel disoriented.

Maybe somehow those trailers that are meant to show off diversity happen to make the game seem disjoint. Maybe when you actually play the worlds (galaxies) it all comes together and makes sense. Which would make the game utterly amazing. I'm very interested to see just what Miyamoto had in mind. Especially since this feeling of disjoint might be mitigated--or better, become an integral part of the experience--with the design of wiimote gestures, making you feel as though you really are traveling through space.

but we don't know that yet. so i'm just commenting on what i HAVE seen so far, and my worries are rather major. basically, 2 worries. 1) being disoriented and 2) feling disjoint gameplay. 2) might be a non-issue if the design is great, but 1) might not go away.


Let me try to address this a paragraph at a time, corresponding to your post...

  1. In the traditional sense that mario is a platformer, figuring out how to jump or navigate between planets and areas is sort of the point of the game, so thats part of why there is so much small debri. I think the size of the planetoids are more of an artistic license thing than anything to be honest. In keeping with that honesty, I have to say that when I watched the video I kept thinking "This guy needs to slow down and explore more, look for some secrets!", so I would agree this person was moving quickly, but I felt like that was not the intent of the level designer in my opinion.
  2. Responding to the twisted path, this is actually the first level of the game I believe, the trailers I have seen show the first island with a bunch of people explaining how to do spin attacks and use the shooting star thingies. So in that regard I think it is foreshadowing of the bizarre puzzles and mindbending places you are about to visit.
  3. See #1, I really think the guy was just showing off the level and was less interested than a normal person playing to beat the game would be. It definitely seemed like he knew what he was doing and where he was going.
  4. I think there will probably be quite a bit of up-side down parts to the game, however several reviews eluded to some pretty nice camera control so I would hope for those a bit weaker on the stomach or perhaps just prone to headaches etc you could straighten things out as you go (relative to Mario anyways).
  5. I will have to disagree that it made it feel disjoint, but I think I agree with your sentiment. Not trying to be picky, but I would say the pace of this video may of seemed a bit rushed, but I think they were trying to keep the length/size of the video down. To me the fact that they show you how you shoot from place to place gives you perspective on where you are at and if you lose your bearings you could also go into freelook mode and look around at the islands around you for orientation.
  6. If disorientation is a real concern for you then I would say rent it before you buy it. I hope it all works out for you though, because I really feal like you would miss out on an excellent game.


To Each Man, Responsibility

Mario. Remember Wii sales are limited by supply at the moment, even now, so the sales rate will only increase when units become availible. If Halo 3 is slightly more popular on the 360 as Galaxy is on the Wii, which I expect due to the nature of the audience, this still means Galaxy will win by a significant margin as current trends continue or even diverge.



Ubuntu. Linux for human beings.

If you are interested in trying Ubuntu or Linux in general, PM me and I will answer your questions and help you install it if you wish.

Final-Fan said:
Wow. "Buy our weirdly-shaped super soaker knockoff, it's disgusting to get hit with!"

But still, it's more of a bad product than a bad ad.

You must be a good person with a pure heart, because everyone else I know who saw that ad saw something much.... filthier.



I believe the Wii and DS are on an identical course in Japan, and Mario Galaxy = New Super Mario Bros, in terms of sales. Check dis:

As you can see, New SMB outpaces Sunshine exponentially. Now, how does this relate to the Wii, you might say? As you can see from this next chart, the DS and Wii are on identical sales paths in Japan:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Japan&cons2=DS&reg2=Japan&cons3=X360&reg3=Japan&align=1

So, since Wii = DS in Japan, and New SMB = Galaxy, we can guess that sales of Galaxy will be closer to 5 million in Japan alone. Of course, they are NOT the same game, and this is only a comparison, but that gives you an idea of Japanese cravings for Mario platformers. Were they satisfied with New SMB? Or do they want to take the plunge and enjoy Mario Galaxy? I'm guessing they will want Mario Galaxy. However, it will take a while to get to 5 million in sales, especially with the supply-constrained Wii.

My final guesstimate: Halo 3 10 mil, Mario Galaxy 16 mil WW. It will take about 3 years to get to those levels, however. (By that time I will be long gone outta here so nobody will remember, haha!)