I think H3 will sell about 5-6million units lifetime and SMB Galaxy about 7 million lifetime - maybe even a little bit more

my reasons:

H3: I think it won't attain the glory of it's old days ,for there are far more good console shooters out or in the making now and Halo is too true to itself with the gameplay having no new wow-effects. Still it will maintain the title of the best-selling console shooter.

SMB Galaxy: Mario has proven to be a major franchise even for casual gamers , who already make up for the most parts of the Wii userbase , but I think nowadays there are more casual titles to chose from ,so the money won't automatically go to a single player Mario game (I believe SSBB will sell better and "steal" some of the customers from Galaxy).

It's got to be Halo. Firstly, look at the marketing Microsoft has put behind the damn thing. Since this is basically the 360's only HUGE game, and Nintendo has many, many games to deal with, there's no way Galaxy is getting the hype that Halo will.

Also, consider the make-up of the Wii's fanbase compared to the 360's. A lot of the Wii userbase will be casual gamers. They won't know how great Galaxy will be. And then look at Microsoft's userbase. They're all FPS nuts with shit loads of money to spend and people that have huge enthusiasm for "hardcore" games. 

The fact is: even if the Wii has a greater install base than the 360 come launch time, pratically every 360 owner is going to buy Halo. The same cannot be said for Galaxy. 

I pretty much agree.

SM64 and SMS sales are a little hard to use as a gauge. SM64 was basically the only title for the system for months, and as the first game to truly exploit 3D was a phenomenon that would be hard to match. SMS, despite very good reviews, never got the buzz of a SM64 and was mostly out at Nintendo's nadir. It was also hampered by the most absurd ad campaign ever. (Note: Any Mario fans who have not played SMS really should give it a shot. It does start off slow and easy, but eventually it does live up to its pedigree). NSMB may be a better gauge as to the actual interest in a Mario title, but there are obviously far fewer Wiis out there than DSs, and NSMB didn't have to compete with Metroid and Smash Bros. I think the floor is SMS-level 5-6 million, and only if the reviews don't match the expectations. The ceiling? SMW sold 20 million at the height of Nintendo's dominance, though the game market was also much smaller then. I think a cap of 18 million sounds about right, but SMG would need a perfect storm to reach those levels.

Given the reviews from E3 and the phenomenon of the Wii, I expect it's sales to be close to the cap than the floor. Say 11-12 million lifetime.

Halo1 I think is the odd Halo out. It had lackluster one player mode, and no online play. It's lifetime sales were likely hurt by the superior Halo2 (which ended up outselling H1), which in online console play was almost as groundbreaking as SM64 was in 3D gaming a generation earlier. Halo3 also has the benefit of being THE BIG GAME for Microsoft this year and will be the sole benficiary of it's marketing department (where SMG is only one of many Nintendo titles). That should give Halo3 numbers at least as good as Halo2. Currently, the 360 is beating XBox sales handily (by 3-4 million in same time frame depending on who's stats you look at) which either means its base is more motivated, or has grown substantially.  It is also going to be used as the killer app to sell the system this holiday,and probably conjoined with a price cut. So I expect it to be a monster hit this holiday, probably bigger than any single Nintendo title. However, long term I expect lower overall sales, simply because I don't expect as many 360 sales as Wii sales, and almost certainly Halo 4 will put a cap in its ass in a couple of years. I'm thinking GTA numbers, 10-13 million when all is said and done.

Shit. That's what I said for SMG, wasn't it? Boy will this be close.

To Cobrretti:
SMS did have hype, but at this time Nintendo sales reps had smoked a few too many pikmin, and thus at release gave us this: http://youtube.com/watch?v=0WPteMFkI2k

IT had solid reviews upon release (http://www.gamestats.com/objects/016/016713//articles.html), but the absurd ad campaign, problems with the Cube's image, and the impossible-to-meet expectations of something as revolutionary as SM64 managed to tarnish it's reputation. While I won't defend the game as a killer app, now that you can get it pretty cheap, and with more realistic expectations, it may be worth a try.

 To Uma:

I think the remark about being a "true" successor to SM64 (besides just being smart marketing by calling back to one of the most successful games in history) comes from the fact that this is the first time the potential for innovation exists in a 1P game since the leap from 2D to 3D, namely the use of the controller.

As for lifetime sales, what may help Mario is that Nintendo has only released one Mario game per console since the N64, so it won't be competing with other Mario platformers (though I do hope to be wrong about that).

With Halo 3, the online game is its main selling point, and as soon as Halo 4 comes out, Halo3 will be abandoned and forgotten. Of course that only kills the tail end of the sales, but that might be as much 10% depending on when H4 is released.

Currently, the 360 is beating XBox sales handily (by 3-4 million in same time frame depending on who's stats you look at)

That's simply not true. Mayhaps you reveal who's stats ye be looking upon?

Several things which you may have stumbled upon:
1. The console comparison charts on this site don't include Europe for last gen systems
2. MS overshipped units during Xmas last year, so they actually were ahead in shipped units by a ridiculous sum at one point.

With a later launch in Europe/Japan for XBox, it had shipped 11.21 M units through Sept 2003, while 360 has shipped 11.6 M through June 2007. A barely significant lead. The more important fact in considering sales of Halo 3 is that Halo 2 launched into a 17 million strong install base instead of 11 million.

Ah. I was using the VG Chartz, so that would be the source of the error. I consider myself pwned.

I agree, I don't see Halo 3 blowing away Halo 2 sales by any huge amount.  Sure it will probably outsell it, but we aren't looking at a game that can outsell Super Mario Galaxy with the kind of momentum the Wii has and the kind of legs that will carry that game.

misterd:

If I'd seen that advertisement, I might have been too ashamed to buy the game. Glad I didn't.

 Hahahahahaha, you really only expect 1.8 million in Japan for mario?  Hahahahahahahahahaha

It'll easily sell over 2 million in Japan alone

Add in NA and Europe and it'll probably outpace Halo 3 overall 

Mario 64 and Mario Sunshine each did less than that (Sunshine considerably so). It's not an outlandish claim, Avinash.