| Emmitt2222 said: Great question and fantastic post. It was really helpful to look at all of those numbers and factors to determine my choice. My general feel right now is that Halo has a more predictable pattern of sales than SMG could have. I think that there is a very large chance that Halo 3 will fall somewhere between 6-10 million. I think somewhere along the lines of 8-9 million being most realistic. Factoring in previous sales of the two games, the price of the console and the install base I think that sounds pretty good. SMG, on the other hand, is a wildcard in my opion. It could sell anywhere on the low end of 5mil [although unlikely] following the decline in sales of mario console titles, or it could be an enormous breakout title that could approach 20mil in sales lifetime like The Source seems to think. I am leaning towards the latter slightly more. I think a reasonable range would be 8-15 mil, much larger because there is so much more in question. Halo 3 isn't changing a lot so it's garunteed to basically be the same goodness, but SMG is yet unproven and has a lot changed in terms of environments and such. It will have a larger install base and could have 3 strong markets as opposed to Halo's one. My uncertainty of crazy 18 mil numbers lie in the fact that I am really not sure if Japan will buy a console Mario like they have with the DS which is much bigger and more accessable than Wii. I'm thinking somewhere in the realm of 12 mil as my final guess though. I think if SMG really takes off well with the casual market and Ninty gets plenty of consoles out there, the really interesting question will be posed of whether SMG can beat Halo in America? If this happens in the next year or two I think the writing is on the wall that the Wii will be dominant like PS was of previous generations. |
I pretty much agree.
SM64 and SMS sales are a little hard to use as a gauge. SM64 was basically the only title for the system for months, and as the first game to truly exploit 3D was a phenomenon that would be hard to match. SMS, despite very good reviews, never got the buzz of a SM64 and was mostly out at Nintendo's nadir. It was also hampered by the most absurd ad campaign ever. (Note: Any Mario fans who have not played SMS really should give it a shot. It does start off slow and easy, but eventually it does live up to its pedigree). NSMB may be a better gauge as to the actual interest in a Mario title, but there are obviously far fewer Wiis out there than DSs, and NSMB didn't have to compete with Metroid and Smash Bros. I think the floor is SMS-level 5-6 million, and only if the reviews don't match the expectations. The ceiling? SMW sold 20 million at the height of Nintendo's dominance, though the game market was also much smaller then. I think a cap of 18 million sounds about right, but SMG would need a perfect storm to reach those levels.
Given the reviews from E3 and the phenomenon of the Wii, I expect it's sales to be close to the cap than the floor. Say 11-12 million lifetime.
Halo1 I think is the odd Halo out. It had lackluster one player mode, and no online play. It's lifetime sales were likely hurt by the superior Halo2 (which ended up outselling H1), which in online console play was almost as groundbreaking as SM64 was in 3D gaming a generation earlier. Halo3 also has the benefit of being THE BIG GAME for Microsoft this year and will be the sole benficiary of it's marketing department (where SMG is only one of many Nintendo titles). That should give Halo3 numbers at least as good as Halo2. Currently, the 360 is beating XBox sales handily (by 3-4 million in same time frame depending on who's stats you look at) which either means its base is more motivated, or has grown substantially. It is also going to be used as the killer app to sell the system this holiday,and probably conjoined with a price cut. So I expect it to be a monster hit this holiday, probably bigger than any single Nintendo title. However, long term I expect lower overall sales, simply because I don't expect as many 360 sales as Wii sales, and almost certainly Halo 4 will put a cap in its ass in a couple of years. I'm thinking GTA numbers, 10-13 million when all is said and done.
Shit. That's what I said for SMG, wasn't it? Boy will this be close.
