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misterd on 14 July 2007
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Uma said:
Cobretti said:
i really think this is a hard question to answer.

ckmlb your about 50-50 change of your your saying with mario.

The way I see it is this.

1) People will see it as a true Mario Game to the N64 days and it will sell about the same as the n64 version if not a little better.

2) People will remember mario sunshine like me and go meh no point buying this. I personally didnt buy mario sunshine cause it had no hype to it or was even promoted as a real mario game it sorta come from nowere.



Now i think it is up to Nintendo which option they will make happen. If they hype it like a true masterpiece that is ment to be the next real mario after n64 then it will sell well. Otherwise it wont.

Reggie actually made a remark about SMG being the true succesor to SM64.

As far as the predictions go for Halo3 and SMG, I think both will struggle to even reach the 10 mil mark. If you take a look at the Best-selling games of all time, there have only been 6 games released on the past 2 generations of console, namely: GTA:SA, GT3, GTA:VC, SM64, GTA3 and GT. Maybe you could argue that the Playstation brands didn't really have a kind of mascot game, like Halo or Mario, but will this really be enough to sell way more than the previous entries ? I think theSource makes some good points but still overestimating the potential of both games.

I definitely don't see Halo3 selling more than the installed userbase of the 360 right now, which is: 10 mil, I think around 7,5 mil is doable. As some others have already said, the competition in the FPS genre is very heavy, which should keep Halo3 from having long legs, a year past it's release date I don't expect Halo3 to be anywhere near the Weekly Top 50.

With SMG it really depends on it's legs, anyone care to mention another 3D platformer which could truly challenge Mario on it's own console? I think it will sell around 9-9,5 mil. In comparison when SM64 there were hardly any games on the N64 which could compete as a quality game at all, the N64 was probably the console which relied the most on 1st party games, with the Wii things will defintely be different.

 

To Cobrretti:
SMS did have hype, but at this time Nintendo sales reps had smoked a few too many pikmin, and thus at release gave us this: http://youtube.com/watch?v=0WPteMFkI2k

IT had solid reviews upon release (http://www.gamestats.com/objects/016/016713//articles.html), but the absurd ad campaign, problems with the Cube's image, and the impossible-to-meet expectations of something as revolutionary as SM64 managed to tarnish it's reputation. While I won't defend the game as a killer app, now that you can get it pretty cheap, and with more realistic expectations, it may be worth a try.

 To Uma:

I think the remark about being a "true" successor to SM64 (besides just being smart marketing by calling back to one of the most successful games in history) comes from the fact that this is the first time the potential for innovation exists in a 1P game since the leap from 2D to 3D, namely the use of the controller.

As for lifetime sales, what may help Mario is that Nintendo has only released one Mario game per console since the N64, so it won't be competing with other Mario platformers (though I do hope to be wrong about that).

With Halo 3, the online game is its main selling point, and as soon as Halo 4 comes out, Halo3 will be abandoned and forgotten. Of course that only kills the tail end of the sales, but that might be as much 10% depending on when H4 is released.