Before giving my prediction, I would like to lay out the factors:
Release Dates: Halo 3 - Sept 25 (USA) Mario Galaxy - Nov 12 (USA)
Eur/others & Japan releases: Unknown (likely 2007 for both though)
Wii userbase at Galaxy launch ~ 14-16 million
Xbox 360 userbase at Halo 3 launch ~ 11-13 million
Comparable games:
Halo 2 - Xbox - Total Sales: ~7.89 million roughly 1/3 of all Xbox owners. Note - Xbox had shipped ~17 million at Halo 2 launch. Halo 2 seems to have sold primarily to existing Xbox owners overall..however, sales did pick up in holiday 04' due to the price of Xbox
Super Mario Sunshine - GC - Total Sales: ~ 5.91 million roughly 27% of all Gamecube owners. At launch, Gamecube had shipped roughly 6.7 million units. Mario Sunshine seemed to benefit from the growth of the GC userbase, but was not a sales driver to the extent of Halo 2 given the length of time on the market.
Halo - Xbox - Total Sales ~ 6.4 million roughly 25% of all Xbox owners. The game was obviously a killer-app, as it proved Microsoft could get a foothold in gamer's mindshare - at least in the West.
New Super Mario Brothers - Current sales ~ Nintendo DS - 9.89 million - and growing. For the first time since the SNES, a Nintendo console capable of 3D graphics has sales of over 40 million units. New Super Mario Brothers was released when the DS had sold around 9 million units. If DS continues on it's trajectory toward Zeus' throne room, and New Super Mario Brothers maintains an attach ratio in the 20% range, watch out. Whether or not Galaxy sales will follow the NSMB pattern will be fascinating to watch.
Gears of War - Xbox 360 - Current sales ~ 4.33 million. Gears and Halo 3 appear to be launching on hardware with the same pricepoint, so I believe the comparison is apt. Both games are symbols of nex-gen exclusivity on 360 vs. the price point barrier. Right now, Gears has a ~40% attach ratio, but it is dropping. Given the 360 will will likely have sales of over 35 million, at worst, Halo 3 should have no trouble besting Gears in sales, if not initial attach ratio.
Super Mario 64 - Nintendo 64 - Total Sales ~ 11.89 million. Super Mario 64 had the highest attach ratio of any game on any system in the last decade (N64, PS1, Saturn, DC, PS2, Xbox, GC) - over 36% when the N64 stopped selling completely. If New Super Mario Brothers were to achieve that staus at the end of the DS lifespan, sales would likely be north of 30 million. Given that Super Mario Galaxy is on a system well recieved in Japan (N64 was not), and that the game may surpass the greatness and innovation of Super Mario 64, this attach ratio is worth watching.
With all that said, I expect the following:
Super Mario Galaxy - 18 million. A truly great Mario game, one which appeals to casual and hardcore, has enormous potential. So far, Wii products are behaving as if they are appreciated by both markets. Additionally, Nintendo seems hell bent on making Wii the philosophical successor to the NES. How is this relevant? Well, back during the NES days, Nintendo was a powerhouse because games had three things - quality new gameplay, accessibility, and unparallelled innovation. The NES was marketed as more than a game system - in Japan the Famicom could connect to dial up internet, handle taxes, check sports, keep track of stock quotes, etc. Wii has similar features. NES had revolutionary styles of play, something no one knew how to copy for years. Wii seems to be heading the same way. In that environment, the classic Nintendo IPs opened the door for standards in gaming for years to come, while 3rd parties provided quirky games (anyone remember Double Dare? 1942? RBI Baseball?). In the years after, Nintendo forgot that despite the quality of it's games, people buy hardware for breadth of software. For the majority, even in the NES days, most preferred the 'entirety' of 3rd party games, with Nintendo's best in a supporting sales role. Today, Nintendo once again has significant support from every important 3rd party in the world, forever ridding gamers of having to pick "Nintendo" or "everything else". With most agreeing that Wii is set to pass SNES numbers worldwide, even a GC-level Mario attach rate would mean sales of over 12.5 million. However, Wii is selling similarly to New Super Mario Brothers on the DS - meaning a 25% attach rate is possible two years after the game is out. Overall, I expect the rate to flatten out (permanently) at around 15-20% when all is said and done for Wii hardware sales, falling just short of Super Mario World numbers.
Halo 3 - 12 million. I expect Halo 3 to have roughly double the Xbox userbase to sell to by the time the generation is over. However, I see this more as a case of legs, then a case of instant success. Ultimately, I expect this game to continue in the vein of Goldeneye 007 on the Nintendo 64. Halo is now a known property as the Bond franchise was, so the credentials are there. In contrast to the N64 however, Halo 3 will be working from an even weaker base in Japan. Furthermore, despite comparable sales to the N64's better years, 360 software from 3rd parties will compete for far more attention than the killer apps on the N64 had to compete with during that cycle. Therefore, despite sales of 6-9 million in the United States over the next few years, sales will actually be limited by other great games, and initially, the 360 price. Still, I expect this to be Microsoft's highest selling game in the 360 lifespan, with an attach ratio in the 25%-33% range.
By region, I expect final sales to be like this:
Super Mario Galaxy Halo 3
Japan: 3,000,000 250,000
Americas: 9,000,000 8,500,000
Others: 6,000,000 3,250,000
What do you think will sell better? and why?
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
