You are way underestimating SMG sales. I'd say it easily has the same appeal as NSMB did. I give it 10 million easy. I also think you are overestimating Halo 3 American sales by 1 million units or so.
NSMB sold 4.75 million in Japan. I expect at least 4.5 million out of Japan, 3.5 out of America (your number) and 2 million out of Europe, ending at 10 million.
Halo 3, I see all your numbers minus 1 million in America. resting at about 9 million. Both games will be huge successes.








