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ckmlb said:
I think you are really overestimating Mario's sales.

Super Mario Galaxy:

Japan- 1,800,000 (Not casual enough to sell more)
USA- 3,500,000 (Will sell very well but not even close to non traditional titles)
Others- 2,000,000 (Will sell well)
Total- 7,300,000

Halo 3:

Japan- 150,000 (Only 360 hardcore and some adopters)
USA- 8,000,000 (Biggest 360 game of the year)
Others- 1,500,000 (Will sell well in the UK and Australia and decent in other parts)
Total- 9,960,000

If Sunshine can sell roughly 6 million, then a Mario game that's actually good and paired with a great install base can easily top 10 million. I agree that 18 million sounds high, at least as a mid-level estimate.