Darn, I was planning on posting this myself, but the Source has backed it up with great numbers and much more thought that I had intended. Great job.
I totally agree that SMG will outsell Halo3, mainly because Wii is attracting a lot of casual and non-gamers who know little to nothing of the current popular games, but they all know Mario. The game looks unlike anything seen before and if it's actually good, will sell very, very well. I look at the numbers for Mario Party 8, a weak entry in a tired franchise that's selling very well on the Wii for similar reasons.
As for Halo 3, it suffers from some Halo fatique (it's basically the same as the last two, just better) and much increased competition in it's field (which adds to the fatique). Factor in a smaller initial base, and much higher price point for the system than Halo 2 had. I expect it's sales to fall in-between Halo 1 and 2's.
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