Super Mario Galaxy vs. Halo 3 - Which game will sell more units overall?

[Final-Fan]

Bodhesatva said:

Final-Fan said:

Bodhesatva said:

Avinash_Tyagi said:

ckmlb said:

I'm not denying any of this. I agree that 1.8 million is probably low. I said that Ck's claim wasn't unreasonable. I do actually choose my words carefully; I'm not a person who thinks any synonym is as good as another.

Yes, there are lots of mitigating factors, many of which you listed here, that make me believe that SM64 levels (or above) are much more likely than Sunshine levels. I think that's likely. But that doesn't make Ck's claim unreasonable -- again, perhaps not likely, but certainly not unreasonable.

Look at Ck's claim, then look at the response to it. Apparently, Ck's claim is hilariously off, according to Avinash. Does that seem appropriate to you, given that Ck's estimation actually assumes that Super Mario Galaxy will match the performance of the best selling Super Mario platforming game in 15 years? I'm going to repeat that for emphasis: in Japan, Ck believes that Super Mario Galaxy will perform as well as the best selling Super Mario game since 1992's Super Mario World. That is definitely not unreasonable.

Not in relation to the number of consoles that game can be played on in Japan. 

But, on the other hand, I can certainly get on board with the idea that his estimate shouldn't have gotten him laughed out of the room.  Just a polite, "are you sure you've checked your numbers?"

 [edit for clarity:  Ck's claim does not assume that SMG will perform as well as SM64, speaking relatively to its console's probable install base.]