The Wii is six months into its life cycle. Software support is improving, both in quantity and quality of titles, especially from the all-important third parties. Anecdotally, I've seen several households go from PS2 last generation to the Wii this generation. I think it has the best shot at being the market leader this generation, and possibly leading the mass charge into HDTV when the next generation comes due.

Conversely, I think the PS3 and 360 are ahead of their time in terms of technology. More importantly, looking at the software libraries at retail (like most real-world customers) the Wii appears to have a more diverse library. Everything on the HD systems looks to be a sports game, an FPS, or a racing game. Viva Pinata and Ratchet & Clank alone are not going to achieve family penetration, and that's the broader market the Wii is aiming for and definitely reaching.

I'm fully prepared to be surprised -- I would like to see the PS3's situation improve, and I will probably pick up a 360 at some point. But the Wii has it in the bag in my opinion.

The first major sign to look for will simply be when Wiis are in stock: when anyone can walk into a retail store and pick up a Wii without camping or showing up on special dates. The system launched seven months ago and, ummm, we still haven't reached that point yet. I can't remember that ever happening with any console before; closest was PS2, and we know how that turned out.

If the Wii remains sold out everywhere for the rest of this year (and I really can't see anything else happening, frankly) Case "C" seems very likely to me. People want this thing. And they'll want it next year too.

Didnt sony say the ps3 is future proof for 2015?

I'm not into just writing off history. Console history tells me that when a console jumps out of the gates this strong in all territories, that doesn't just fade away, no matter what, no matter if the competition (N64) releases some of the best games ever (OOT,GoldenEye,Mario64,MarioKart64) it is just not going to stop that (PS1) momentum once it gets rolling.

Many see the turning point to be when the Wii is finally able to be seen on store shelves. Me? Not so much. Seeing them on store shelves doesn't mean anything to me if it is outselling its competition 2 fold every month still. The retail channel could be packed to the gills but if NPD MediaCreate and Chart Track say Wii sold 600k this month and 360 and PS3 sold 300k, what exactly are those units on your stores shelf actually proving?

I think the position these consoles are in now, are the way they will end at the conclusion of this gen. How many each sells, im not even going to try and answer. No idea. I predict next gen MS wins however. But thats a whole different and insanely long discussion so I wont go into that lol.

The problem with that is that is just PR speak. It would be true if it had a PS2 level support base where the PS4 is introduced and enough people still own a PS3 that 3rd party support would continue until 2015. However the next generation of systems will appear between 2011 and 2012 for all 3 manufacturers.

I personally feel that MS is going for profitability this round and will hold out on a price cut until Sony does or they feel they make enough profit on each sold console that they can comfortably cut the price. Software sales are good for the 360 but it appears that MS has hit a wall with sales for the $400 market and will probably wait until Halo creates a nice bump in HW sales. This IMO aids the Wii which will still be the cheapest system by a noticeable margin.

The PS3 has another problem it has dried up its $600 market and when it drops to to $400 it will be be in a market that the MS has already drained especially if MS continues at this point to the end of the year. However when MS drops to $300 it will be in a market that while larger Nintendo will have still soaked up a larger margin of that market and will more than likely start working on the  sub 200 dollar market which is even larger still.

The price differences this gen are huge and the higher the price the more limited the market and the more occlusive the market. Fewer people are willing to buy a $400 console and a $600 dollar console or even 2 $400 consoles within 2 years. It is not that the PS3 won't sell at $400 or that the PS3 won't sell more at $400 than it did $600 it is just that MS would of dried up a much larger portion of those willing to pay that much and sales would be significantly less than if they went head to head at the same time. MS will run into a similiar problem at $300 but to a lesser extent this market is larger but still limited and Nintendo is eating away at that market as we speak.

Once all systems get to sub $200 price will mean less but by than I can't really see Nintendo slowing down because it will be at around $129 which is a much larger market than $199. Put me in group C.

 You will be able to tell if the wii is a fad when you start seeing a non supply contraned trend downward for teh Wii and a trend upward for the PS3 and 360 that lasts over 4 months. However I view this as unlikely.

I'm in the B or C group I think the Wii will definetly be the big console this gen, the only question is how big?

I think you should wait a bit longer before making that assumption.

Spiderman was a trully crappy game, and particularly on the Wii, because it was rushed to launch with the movie. I'd say, from the looks of it, a more fair comparison will be Harry Potter.

Madden Wii, wasn't outsold by the PS3 version by much (for a publisher, installed base is only a means, not an end - that's selling copies), got good reviews (generally better than both PS3 and 360), and came out late (as did the PS3 version). I'd say we should wait for the '08 games before completely writing off games like Madden or FIFA on the Wii.

All these games have the potential to be big on the Wii, but may "flop" as well. I don't think we can know for sure which one of those it'll be just yet.

I'm still in between groups A and B, as I have been since early 2006....But in 2006, I was in group C.

Ultimately, the big test will be it's worldwide sales during Christmas, ect 2007, and the ensuing sales in early 2008. By then, the 360 and maybe even PS3 will have price drops + very viable titles. If the Wii still sells 300k+ in NPD calendar months, then the Wii will wind up around group B and group C. However, if we see the Wii start selling more moderately, at 200k or so, it will wind up between group A and group B. Any less, and it's headed to group A.

Again, the Wii really has no competition. What really counts is when MS and Sony have their cards (MGS4, Halo 3, GTAIV, ME, KZ2, RE5, price drop) down on the table. When the Wii has those things to go up with, we'll know 100% for certain. No earlier or later.

I expect the high end of group C.

I think Harry Potter will be an interesting multi-platform movie to game title to compare. It had more money and time invested in it compared to most movie related games, and also Madden 08. As supply hasn't come close to reaching demand, it still might be too early to tell.  (People may get a PS2 or 360 version because they can't get a wii to play a wii version).

What the sales numbers are like, once there are consoles on the shelf everywhere will make it a little easier to tell if it's group A, B, or C... Will supply and demand remain high, or will demand fall off quickly once everyone who wants one now but currently can't get one has one. It's normal for demand to be higher at the release of a new product, and we will not know if the wii truely has legs or not until you can find it in stock in most stores...

Huh? Of course the Wii has competition! Both the 360 and PS3 are out on the market, and have been on the market for its entire lifespan. "What really counts" is what's going on right now! I don't know how you could possibly say otherwise. The 360 "doesn't have its cards down on the table"? Uh, it's been out for 19 months now! Sorry, but that excuse is not flying for me.

This is just a modified version of the "when ____ game comes out, 360/PS3 will start beating the Wii!" stuff that has been going on all year. Absolutely nothing has changed in the past six months since 2007 started. But hey, feel free to think what you will.

I usually appreciate your posts, mrstickball, but this one left me very confused.