You will know by software sales. How well will wii games do agianst GTA4 Halo GT FF13 hit.

 You could ask how well will the PS/X360 do when MP3, SSBB and SMG hit. Basically we know what the blockbusters are going to be but we have yet to see how they square up. Currently I'm high B/Low C, I dont think A is likely but I think anywhere between low B and high C is.

Personally I think we will know before the end of this year, as Blue pointed out the big software is coming up soon. 

Sure the software for Wii is coming, but how well will they sell? SSBB will probably do the best of the three you mentioned considering Melee sold about 6 million copies. I think we'll see sales similar to Halo 2 for Brawl. Mario Sunshine and both Metriod Primes only sold about 1.5-2 million copies each, so probably around 3 mil for both games. The GTA games since #3 have all gone over 12 million (and each sequel sold more than the last game) so GTA IV should be pretty sound there. The sales for MGS games have slowed down with each new game, so I'm not sure how MSG4 will do. Halo 3 will probably make it over 10 million considering #2 sold close to 8 million, 2 mil more than #1 which did around 6 million.

Super Mario Sunshine

Nintendo

0.87

3.73

1.31

5.91

No.

 You also have to take into account the comparative install base in the last generation. Which was basically PS2 - 75% GC - 25% XB - 25%.

Although the install base isnt a direct transformation (you cant multiply Xbox and GC figures by three to get a comparison) it does have a major impact. Also the fact that GT4 is not exclusive will damage its overall impact as it gets more sales but less on any one system.

My prediction is that Halo 3 will be huge though. HUGE. 

I don't see the Wii slowing down any time soon. It will remain sold out all year and Xmas will be a free for all.

We will get a good idea when we can compare yoy sales in 08. If Jan, Feb, Mar trend higher in 08 then 07 then the Wii will have a shot at group C.

Also Nintendo is in the best position of the 3. They have the best price and are profitable on the hardware. They can cut the price anytime easily, but they wont need to soon.

I think sometime in 08 they will start to include Wii Play as well as Wii Sports.

Then if they were to include Wii Music and Wii Health as well for Xmas 08, they would be sold out no matter how many they could ship.

Then at any time they can drop the price to 200, 150 and keep sales going.

Also, Nintendo has no reason to end this gen in 5 years. If MS launches in 2011 and Nintendo and Sony say So What and stick with the current systems MS would be in trouble.

And looking at games like Mario Galaxies which looks great, I am not sure what they would need to improve. Sure they could make it more powerful, better graphics, but that is not what Nintendo is targetting this gen.

No, I respectfully disagree.

The Wii doesn't have any real, viable competition. The X360 is still $400, and the PS3 is still $600 - well out of mass market pricing. The Wii really hasn't faced a major hurdle in the 360, despite the huge time lead, as the 360 has done litterally nothing out of normal game releases to hamper Wii sales, which obviously hasn't worked.

The same goes for PS3. What really counts isn't your first year entirely, what matters is your first Christmas where you can actually penetrate the market with full shipping capacity. Thats where it matters, folks. When you have the ability to sell 5-6m Wiis in a matter of 8 weeks, thats when gut check time is. The ultimate issue is if the Wii can do those kind of numbers when MS and Sony drop their prices for Christmas, and Nintendo doesn't.

Again, the 360 is $400 at 19 months. If you can honestly think that the 360 should be selling better at that price, and should be doing well with prices so long and high into it's lifecycle, you are insane. The question is how it, and the PS3 will sell with a price drop @ Christmas. Will kids and families pick up the Wii when the X360 is $50 cheaper in the US for a core pack? Will PS3 sales start doing decent with some halfway decent software and a $500 pricetag for the 60gb model?

I'm not trying to give into the "game X will save console Y" mentality, but again, with a price drop that puts the X360 in actual mass-market pricing, it will either steal the Wiis thunder, and will show that the Wii won't the continued sell-out momentumn into 2008 in the US and/or Europe, or the Wii will continue selling like hotcakes, and both the 360/PS3 continue to stagnate, effectively ending the console wars, and relegating them to the GC/Xbox-like sales of last gen. 

I didn't say that the 360/PS3 would magically out-do the Wii, I was just explaining what's at stake this Christmas, and that Sony and MS are wanting the market as well. They aren't rolling over, and they WILL position themselves to try to sell as many systems as possible - as will Nintendo. The Wii has huge titles in SMG, MP3, and SSBB - but will they hold off the onslaught of various PS3/360 titles? I'm not trying to answer the question, I'm merely posing the question. Again, adding in the price drop of both systems will add alot variables to the mix, and can really disrupt Wii dominance - or just roll over, and do like they have been thus far, and falling on their faces. The critical battle is Christmas, and not now. I cannot stress that enough. The Wii sells 350k a mont in the US. So what? At Christmas, it can either sell 1m to 1.2m consoles against a veteran X360 selling ultra well via a price drop, and a still-competitive PS3 doing 700-850k, or it can take the lead, and litterally sell more in 4 weeks than it did ALL year this year in the US. The same goes for Europe, as European sales have mimiced the US for all 3 systems.

Go do some research on the PS1/N64 wars in the US. The key battle was Christmas 1997. The N64 did rather well upto Sept. 1997, then with FF7, and other variables, the N64 stagnated and managed around 1.2m units that Christmas, and the PS1 ended up with somewhere near 2.5m. The rest was history - the PS1 carried the momentum for the rest of 3 years, and led to a new dynasty, and the N64 just died then and there, never to really play a significant competitor to the PS1 in the US, Nintendo's biggest market. I'm not saying "oh, the N64 will track like the Wii", but either the Wii is the N64, or the PS1 in this scenario. Nintendo expects to ship ~17m units by Christmas (press releases show Nintendo desiring around 20m units sold by March 2008). The question is if Nintendo has 100% sellthrough, or near it like they have thus far, or ends up facing tough competition and can't meet the 20m goal by 1-3m units.

 Still, there are alot of variables, and questions, and tons of major 1m selling titles for each 3 systems. What major 1m sellers have come out this year against the Wii? Crackdown and Lost Planet were the only systems thus far to sell 1m+ since Jan 2007. However, from September to December, between the PS3 and 360, there are probably 20 titles that WILL reach the 1m global mark, or more. Thats alot of titles. The Wii has alot of potential 1m sellers too. But like the 360/PS3 1m sellers, they are just that - potentials.

The N64 stalled in 1997 because Diddy Kong Racing was the holiday game instead of Zelda.  N64 was able to gain on PS1 because Super Mario 64 convinced people that Nintendo's games were so ahead of anything PS1 that it would be worth it to get an N64 even if there were fewer games.  Mario Kart 64 (four player battles were still pretty new), Star Fox 64 (rumble pack and speech), Goldeneye 007 (the legendary cheat codes), maintained the momentum of Mario 64.  However, PS1 could match those games tit for tat.  When FFVII came out, Nintendo needed to have Zelda ready.  It was not.  Millions of RPG gamers switched to PS1, and with them, publishers followed.  A Zelda vs. FFVII holiday battle may have actually seen N64 pass PS1 in early 1998, before PS1 retook the lead in 1998 (because that would have made 1998 the Zelda-less break in momentum).

Here is my theory on how the rest of this year will play out:

Impact     $250 (Wii)            $400 (360)        $600 (PS3)    

10                                                          

9           

8           Galaxy,Brawl           Halo 3, GTA IV

7           GHIII, DDR             Madden, GHIII                

6         Wii Music                Rockband                   GTAIV, MGS4, GHIII

5         Metroid, Madden      DMC4, Blue Dragon      Heavenly Sword, Madden, Rockband

4         Mario & Sonic   Too Human, Assassin's Creed    Ratchet & Clank, Lair, DMC4

3         Mario Party 8           Forza 2                          Ninja Gaiden Sigma

2     Boogie, Nights, SC:L                                         Assassin's Creed

1

0

Because of price, momentum and game variety and differentiation, I expect Wii to sell 3-5 million units between Sept-Dec, while I expect 360 to sell 2-4 million units in the same time frame.  For 360 to reach 4 million, I think the price advantage of Wii must be minimized.  With the other advantages in place, Wii should do quite well since it has a much better lineup than N64 when it was trying to come back vs. PS1.  Lastly, I expect PS3 to sell 1.25 to 2.75 million units over the comparable time frame, with <2.0 million my assumption barring a price drop to $500.. 

Wow, you draw a totally different lesson from the N64/PS generation than I do. The Playstation started ahead and finished ahead -- that's the lesson. The N64 put up a reasonably good fight, but it's just another example of how a console that falls behind cannot make that ground back up, and in most cases (including the N64/PS generation) usually falls farther and farther behind.

In other words, I see the opposite of what you apparently do. The N64/PS generation is just more evidence that the 360 and PS3 cannot come from behind, as the N64 was unable to do. And it's really even worse for the 360 and PS3 than it was for the N64; as you said, the N64 did put up a reasonably good fight at first, but even that relatively small difference in install base could not be overcome, and eventually the N64 was dominated. What would make you think that if the N64 couldn't do it -- when only being outsold 1.5:1 -- that the PS3 or 360 can, when being outsold 2.5:1 or 4:1? Again, how does this do anything but simply reinforce the notion that the PS3/360 can't turn it around? 

Good thread, don't have much to say but that, most people have very insightful posts.