The N64 stalled in 1997 because Diddy Kong Racing was the holiday game instead of Zelda. N64 was able to gain on PS1 because Super Mario 64 convinced people that Nintendo's games were so ahead of anything PS1 that it would be worth it to get an N64 even if there were fewer games. Mario Kart 64 (four player battles were still pretty new), Star Fox 64 (rumble pack and speech), Goldeneye 007 (the legendary cheat codes), maintained the momentum of Mario 64. However, PS1 could match those games tit for tat. When FFVII came out, Nintendo needed to have Zelda ready. It was not. Millions of RPG gamers switched to PS1, and with them, publishers followed. A Zelda vs. FFVII holiday battle may have actually seen N64 pass PS1 in early 1998, before PS1 retook the lead in 1998 (because that would have made 1998 the Zelda-less break in momentum).
Here is my theory on how the rest of this year will play out:
Impact $250 (Wii) $400 (360) $600 (PS3)
10
9
8 Galaxy,Brawl Halo 3, GTA IV
7 GHIII, DDR Madden, GHIII
6 Wii Music Rockband GTAIV, MGS4, GHIII
5 Metroid, Madden DMC4, Blue Dragon Heavenly Sword, Madden, Rockband
4 Mario & Sonic Too Human, Assassin's Creed Ratchet & Clank, Lair, DMC4
3 Mario Party 8 Forza 2 Ninja Gaiden Sigma
2 Boogie, Nights, SC:L Assassin's Creed
1
0
Because of price, momentum and game variety and differentiation, I expect Wii to sell 3-5 million units between Sept-Dec, while I expect 360 to sell 2-4 million units in the same time frame. For 360 to reach 4 million, I think the price advantage of Wii must be minimized. With the other advantages in place, Wii should do quite well since it has a much better lineup than N64 when it was trying to come back vs. PS1. Lastly, I expect PS3 to sell 1.25 to 2.75 million units over the comparable time frame, with <2.0 million my assumption barring a price drop to $500..
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
