My problem with everyones theories is that they don't take into account that Wii may have just stumbled into a blue ocean. In the previous generation over 170 million consoles were sold spanning over all three consoles. Assuming that the Wii has stumbled into the blue ocean than I think that the Wii will get atleast 100 million sales. Keeping in mind that the 360 and the PS3 may take the hardcore section of gaming to start with, but once it is clear who is the winner they will have to switch over and get a Wii if they want all of the great games.

Lets just say that all of the people who bought a gamecube last generation buys a Wii this gen. That is 22 million Wii owners right there.

Assuming that Wii wins overall, it will get a massive boost to that number from the hardcore gamers switching over containing anywhere from 30 million to 100 million.

Assuming that the Wii has stumbled upon a Blue Ocean which truly does attract gamers of all ages, that can account for anywhere from 30 million to 300 million.

Seeing Folksoul sell so weekly as it is I would say that the Wii gameplay is really catching on to a large if not plain old massive portion of the audience my overall estimates range anywhere from 100 million to 500 million by the end of the generation. Assuming that Wii wins the console war.

Just to humor everyone else, if the PS3 wins, you would probably get 60 million console owners max by the end of the generation. The reason for that is that the PS3 may never stumble into mass market price range. It was designed to be powerful enough to go into a whole new generation so it will cost over the 250 dollar mass market range right to the end of the generation.

If 360 wins you will see a figure similar to last generation, although greatly reduced. Most likely 80 million. Even if they do get to 80 million they have no chance in Japan for quite awhile.

Big Brain bombed because they are charging $50 for a 20-30 dollar game. 35 tops. I think nintendo was testing the waters for what they could get away with. If the "Wii Series" games are package in a certain way or priced right I think they will be a very successful series. I think if there are any core gamers that are on the fence about Wii, SClegends, Nights, Mario, Metroid, etc. will get them to buy it as a first or second system.

I really think MySims is going to be big, though releasing Sims Pets was a bad idea. EA is going to see Wii success, Take Two is going to see Wii success with Manhunt 2 (hardcore-wannabes, you know the ones that play Halo, Madden, or GTA and that's it, will buy the dumbed down version, just because of the hype). Ubi has already seen Wii success. Square, diddo. Capcom, diddo. 5 of the biggest 3rd parties will be backing Wii hard next year.

70+ million is an if, it's when. Can Nintendo make enough Wii's? I think they are stock piling for the big releases and holidays, release just enough to saturate current demand. While you still can't just walk into any store and get one, the days of 8 hour waits are mostly gone.

Metroid and Mario (not just for Harcore fans, I think Nostalgia will play into it) are gonna move systems. Smash is a different beast, Smash fans already want or own a Wii. EA and Square are going to increase demand. These two are the most important 3rd parties, and both seem to be putting effort into Wii games.

If Nintendo can produce enough systems, I think they could sell 10 million more through Jan 1. But I don't think they can make this many. Even if Wii reaches 14-16 million this Year that will make for a huge 1st year installed base. As far as "the race" or "the war", I don't think any of the others will catch up from there. The installed user base can't be ignored by publishers.

If/When Wii passes 360 I think Japanese developers will really wake up to this. If/When Wii dominates through the Holidays and gets all the Japanese support, the American developers will shift more assets but still mainly focus on 360/PS3 because of the Japanese Giant Publishers will be very competitve.

Will Wii ever stop getting spin-offs and get the real Final Fantasy, Soul Caliber, etc. No, but Wii will have new major IPs.

(BTW I just bougt a PS3 today. PSNetwork is almost as good as live and it's free, and the included WiFi is nice too. Though I think the 360 setup is more user-friendly than PS3. 360's $99 for wifi is messed up)

Godfather PS3 did 2 times better than the Wii version. Sports titles and Movie games are almost equel. Small advantage fo PS3. Like Spiderman and Madden. Although Pirates World's End did 3 times better on Wii than PS3 version. So yea it's too early to say.

I don't think those games will flop on Wii. These games are popular in general and will always sell fine on whatever system. PS3/360 will be the focus for these games. PS3 is almost equel against Wii on absolut numbers. On relative numbers PS3 is outselling 2:1. Same goes for 360. Consider 360/PS3 are still not on the sweet spot of there console price. Casual gamers like these games, but think 360/PS3 are too exansive.

I don't think it's impossible that the relative number will end up 3:1. But it's only a speculation.

Its still way to early to speculate on this - but I definitely put the Wii in Cat C, or even a Cat D.

Simply consider these points with nothing else:

i) The only reason the Wii has ONLY sold 9m units WW, is that it is sold out everywhere. So current sales are solely dependent on manufacturing at the moment - nothing else. 

ii) Nintendo are selling Wii units at a PROFIT. This is pretty astounding when you consider that its still cheaper than the competition, which are losing money for their operators (on hardware).

iii) Much of the software being created for the Wii is (relatively) cheap to create. This makes bundling with software much more viable.

...

So based on these three points alone... if Nintendo released a $99US Wii bundle, with WiiSports and BigBrain(Wii) - and had 100m units ready for sale... and backed all this up by a huge marketing campaign... how many units would they sell?

Answer - it would take a while, but I would think ALL of them would sell (worldwide of course).

...

MS & Sony are just not in a position to hit this price point - no time soon anyway. And Nintendo will not even consider dropping the price while they are manufacturing/sellout constrained.

"Godfather PS3 did 2 times better than the Wii version. Sports titles and Movie games are almost equel. Small advantage fo PS3. Like Spiderman and Madden. Although Pirates World's End did 3 times better on Wii than PS3 version. So yea it's too early to say."

Movie tie-in games (along with GTA) almost define the PS2 casual game market. The Wii should be relatively less competitive with those titles. The problem is for Sony is the movie game has definately peaked, the high mark probably being that shitty Matrix game.

The even bigger problem for Sony is that the presentation aspect of gaming is on the wane and game play mechanics are making a comeback. The tech in the PS3 may go obsolete faster than it depreciates in cost. So, IMO, the Wii is untouchable by the PS3 because of price. Nobody who wants to play something like Wii Bowling is going to buy the same thing for twice as much to get HD graphics. Because of that, I'm at least in group B.

That's perfectly reasonable. I only question the importance of relative numbers. As I said, user base is only a means to an end. For a publisher only absolute sales matter. That, and profit relative to investment.

It only matters that Wii versions are competitive in absolute terms. If they are and, as bonus, they double as being cheaper to produce, that's more than enough to be considered successful.

It's notreally important for developers. They rather look at absolut numbers.
The relative numbers do say something about the kind of gamers who own a particular console.

And about movies games: I think movie-based games will always be popular. Most of the people who play these games, don't think these games are bad. They will just think the are not so good at playin that game.

If Nintendo is indeed tapping into "blue oceans" on a large scale (I'm talking millions), then it's going to be very hard to predict how well Nintendo will do. If if the Wii can draw in massive amounts of untapped markets, such as female and middle aged gamers (like the DS has), it should be able to attain somewhere in the "midrange of letter C".

But this largely has to come from NEW NINTENDO FRANCHISES! They can't rely on Nintendogs and Brain Age seaquels to dupiclate what they achieved on the DS (most gamers who will purchase a Wii will probably have played/owned them on a DS already). Edutainment, sports and Music based games can only take you so far..... I realize Nintendo has alredy found a niche market with their minigame collections, but it's highly doubtful that it will maintain current popularity over the next 3-5 years.

As stated above, PS3 and X-Box 360 will do well with Hardcore gamers, Teenagers and adults that have grown up with gaming, so their numbers are somewhat easier to predict.

Nintnedo making on wii

$2.4 billion world wide with 8.5 million consoles sold..

Microsoft 360 making

$3.5billion world wide wow thats only talking about the 360 console.

Sony ps3 making

$2 Billion dam I thought it was more lie 1 billion thats alot of moeny for sony

Generally all the companies have been succes full