My problem with everyones theories is that they don't take into account that Wii may have just stumbled into a blue ocean. In the previous generation over 170 million consoles were sold spanning over all three consoles. Assuming that the Wii has stumbled into the blue ocean than I think that the Wii will get atleast 100 million sales. Keeping in mind that the 360 and the PS3 may take the hardcore section of gaming to start with, but once it is clear who is the winner they will have to switch over and get a Wii if they want all of the great games.
Lets just say that all of the people who bought a gamecube last generation buys a Wii this gen. That is 22 million Wii owners right there.
Assuming that Wii wins overall, it will get a massive boost to that number from the hardcore gamers switching over containing anywhere from 30 million to 100 million.
Assuming that the Wii has stumbled upon a Blue Ocean which truly does attract gamers of all ages, that can account for anywhere from 30 million to 300 million.
Seeing Folksoul sell so weekly as it is I would say that the Wii gameplay is really catching on to a large if not plain old massive portion of the audience my overall estimates range anywhere from 100 million to 500 million by the end of the generation. Assuming that Wii wins the console war.
Just to humor everyone else, if the PS3 wins, you would probably get 60 million console owners max by the end of the generation. The reason for that is that the PS3 may never stumble into mass market price range. It was designed to be powerful enough to go into a whole new generation so it will cost over the 250 dollar mass market range right to the end of the generation.
If 360 wins you will see a figure similar to last generation, although greatly reduced. Most likely 80 million. Even if they do get to 80 million they have no chance in Japan for quite awhile.
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