If Nintendo is indeed tapping into "blue oceans" on a large scale (I'm talking millions), then it's going to be very hard to predict how well Nintendo will do. If if the Wii can draw in massive amounts of untapped markets, such as female and middle aged gamers (like the DS has), it should be able to attain somewhere in the "midrange of letter C".
But this largely has to come from NEW NINTENDO FRANCHISES! They can't rely on Nintendogs and Brain Age seaquels to dupiclate what they achieved on the DS (most gamers who will purchase a Wii will probably have played/owned them on a DS already). Edutainment, sports and Music based games can only take you so far..... I realize Nintendo has alredy found a niche market with their minigame collections, but it's highly doubtful that it will maintain current popularity over the next 3-5 years.
As stated above, PS3 and X-Box 360 will do well with Hardcore gamers, Teenagers and adults that have grown up with gaming, so their numbers are somewhat easier to predict.
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