Big Brain bombed because they are charging $50 for a 20-30 dollar game. 35 tops. I think nintendo was testing the waters for what they could get away with. If the "Wii Series" games are package in a certain way or priced right I think they will be a very successful series. I think if there are any core gamers that are on the fence about Wii, SClegends, Nights, Mario, Metroid, etc. will get them to buy it as a first or second system.
I really think MySims is going to be big, though releasing Sims Pets was a bad idea. EA is going to see Wii success, Take Two is going to see Wii success with Manhunt 2 (hardcore-wannabes, you know the ones that play Halo, Madden, or GTA and that's it, will buy the dumbed down version, just because of the hype). Ubi has already seen Wii success. Square, diddo. Capcom, diddo. 5 of the biggest 3rd parties will be backing Wii hard next year.
70+ million is an if, it's when. Can Nintendo make enough Wii's? I think they are stock piling for the big releases and holidays, release just enough to saturate current demand. While you still can't just walk into any store and get one, the days of 8 hour waits are mostly gone.
Metroid and Mario (not just for Harcore fans, I think Nostalgia will play into it) are gonna move systems. Smash is a different beast, Smash fans already want or own a Wii. EA and Square are going to increase demand. These two are the most important 3rd parties, and both seem to be putting effort into Wii games.
If Nintendo can produce enough systems, I think they could sell 10 million more through Jan 1. But I don't think they can make this many. Even if Wii reaches 14-16 million this Year that will make for a huge 1st year installed base. As far as "the race" or "the war", I don't think any of the others will catch up from there. The installed user base can't be ignored by publishers.
If/When Wii passes 360 I think Japanese developers will really wake up to this. If/When Wii dominates through the Holidays and gets all the Japanese support, the American developers will shift more assets but still mainly focus on 360/PS3 because of the Japanese Giant Publishers will be very competitve.
Will Wii ever stop getting spin-offs and get the real Final Fantasy, Soul Caliber, etc. No, but Wii will have new major IPs.
(BTW I just bougt a PS3 today. PSNetwork is almost as good as live and it's free, and the included WiFi is nice too. Though I think the 360 setup is more user-friendly than PS3. 360's $99 for wifi is messed up)
I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.
