The Wii is six months into its life cycle. Software support is improving, both in quantity and quality of titles, especially from the all-important third parties. Anecdotally, I've seen several households go from PS2 last generation to the Wii this generation. I think it has the best shot at being the market leader this generation, and possibly leading the mass charge into HDTV when the next generation comes due.
Conversely, I think the PS3 and 360 are ahead of their time in terms of technology. More importantly, looking at the software libraries at retail (like most real-world customers) the Wii appears to have a more diverse library. Everything on the HD systems looks to be a sports game, an FPS, or a racing game. Viva Pinata and Ratchet & Clank alone are not going to achieve family penetration, and that's the broader market the Wii is aiming for and definitely reaching.
I'm fully prepared to be surprised -- I would like to see the PS3's situation improve, and I will probably pick up a 360 at some point. But the Wii has it in the bag in my opinion.
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