lol anyone who has over 70 million minimum for anything needs to look up the definition of "Minimum." We are talking about WORST CASE here people. There are certainly a LOT of scenarios where every console can die out before 70 million.

For me, the question is really how much will sales increase for PS3 when the price drops?  It is selling between DC and GC levels right now at $600.  Last generation sales (PS2) will end up at 125 million.  Say the average price for PS3 from 2006 to 2012 is $350.  Is that expensive enough to lose 85 million customers even as the market grows at least another 20 million users bigger?  Remember, when sales do get under $400 or so, sales accelerate much more rapidly.  A $50 price drop might be a 2% boost in sales for PS3, $100 off would be maybe a 5% boost, $150 drop would be a 17.5% boost, a $200 drop would be like a 70% boost. 

Basically, if PS3 on average, cost $350 from 2006-2012, I would expect sales to be something like 2.5x the absolute lows of 2007 in the long run (from the lows of 40k/week right now to 100k/week).

I would say losing 85 million customers qualifies as a pretty solid worst case scenario.  I mean that is essentially losing the combined userbase of the SNES & Genesis (as an eccentric comparison).

My main point is, I think after 2 years or so, when PS3 is cheaper, it will be selling faster than either GC or Xbox did because of a stronger presence in Japan & Europe.

 

TheSource said: For me, the question is really how much will sales increase for PS3 when the price drops?  It is selling between DC and GC levels right now at $600.  Last generation sales (PS2) will end up at 125 million.  Say the average price for PS3 from 2006 to 2012 is $350.  Is that expensive enough to lose 85 million customers even as the market grows at least another 20 million users bigger?  Remember, when sales do get under $400 or so, sales accelerate much more rapidly.  A $50 price drop might be a 2% boost in sales for PS3, $100 off would be maybe a 5% boost, $150 drop would be a 17.5% boost, a $200 drop would be like a 70% boost.  Basically, if PS3 on average, cost $350 from 2006-2012, I would expect sales to be something like 2.5x the absolute lows of 2007 in the long run (from the lows of 40k/week right now to 100k/week). I would say losing 85 million customers qualifies as a pretty solid worst case scenario.  I mean that is essentially losing the combined userbase of the SNES & Genesis (as an eccentric comparison). My main point is, I think after 2 years or so, when PS3 is cheaper, it will be selling faster than either GC or Xbox did because of a stronger presence in Japan & Europe.

I'm pretty doubtful that the price effects will have the desired impact on the PS3's sales ...

Edit: Oops hit enter ...

Assume for a moment that the price reduction schedule for the PS3 looks like the following:

1. $100 in 2007 ($500)
2. $100 in 2008 ($400)
3. $100 in 2009 ($300)
4. $100 in 2010 ($200)
5. $50 in 2011 ($150)

Now, as the PS3 is hitting a price where it can sell quite well to the average gamer it has been on the market for approximately 3 years and hasn't sold particularly well; these lower sales have really hurt third party confidence in the platform and exclusive development has dropped off. On top of all of that the Wii has sold like hot-cakes and has built up a massive userbase and third party developers really believe in the platform; because of the nature of the Wii's hardware pretty much every Wii game is exclusive and the low development costs mean that there are several times as many games for the Wii.

Basically, in 2009 and beyond the PS3 will have far fewer games than the Wii , will have (almost) no exclusive games, it will still have a much higher price tag and will be seen as a failure; how much demand do you think a system like this will have?

It depends, the PS3 may already have a bad reputation by the time the price gets low enough. In the past what has determined the future of a console is generally how popular it is on launch - 1 year.

TheSource said: For me, the question is really how much will sales increase for PS3 when the price drops? It is selling between DC and GC levels right now at $600. Last generation sales (PS2) will end up at 125 million. Say the average price for PS3 from 2006 to 2012 is $350. Is that expensive enough to lose 85 million customers even as the market grows at least another 20 million users bigger? Remember, when sales do get under $400 or so, sales accelerate much more rapidly. A $50 price drop might be a 2% boost in sales for PS3, $100 off would be maybe a 5% boost, $150 drop would be a 17.5% boost, a $200 drop would be like a 70% boost. Basically, if PS3 on average, cost $350 from 2006-2012, I would expect sales to be something like 2.5x the absolute lows of 2007 in the long run (from the lows of 40k/week right now to 100k/week). I would say losing 85 million customers qualifies as a pretty solid worst case scenario. I mean that is essentially losing the combined userbase of the SNES & Genesis (as an eccentric comparison). My main point is, I think after 2 years or so, when PS3 is cheaper, it will be selling faster than either GC or Xbox did because of a stronger presence in Japan & Europe.

I would totally agree, Source, except this line of thinking sort of assumes that these consoles exist in a vacuum, where each purchaser is simply waiting for their chosen console to drop to their chosen price.

That has not historically been what happened, though. The consoles that have started at high prices didn't sell well out of the gate... and then continued to sell poorly, even after price drops. How do you explain that? I'm not asking that in a sarcastic way, I'd really be interested in your opinion. Do you simply feel that Sony has enough brand recognition and money to power through what has traditionally been a serious issue for all previous consoles in the PS3's position?  

Wii: 55 million
PS3: 42.5 million
Xbox 360: 36 million

akuma587 said: Wii: 55 million PS3: 42.5 million Xbox 360: 36 million

 Solid guesses, Akuma. I very much like your posts, by the way, even if I often disagree with their conclusions.

People continue to serious overestimate the 360. They're ignoring big Microsoft's problems in Europe. I don't see how the 360 sells more than the PS3 when it will lose both Japan and Europe. The only shot it has is if Europe ends close and it sells significantly more in the US, and I don't see either as strong liklihoods. In addition to a Europe and Japan problem Microsoft still has a big time casual gamer problem. My numbers Wii 40 million PS3 30 million 360 25 million These are absolute lows. I think all three will sell better, probably at least 10-15 million units better, but we're going for absolute lows here.

You're seriously underestimating it. The 360 is selling slightly better than the original with a $400 price tag 18 months into its life. The Xbox had already been sliced down to $200 at this point in its life. Add in that the 360 is virtually guaranteed at least one additional year in the market, MS hasn't released Halo and GTA IV hasn't hit shelves, and you expect it to do worse than the original... The numbers just don't add up any way you look at them.

He300 said: I belive we all agree to this = WII > X360 > PS3 if we all can agree to that, then why should we argue about the details?, 10 millions this and there, who cares? the big thing is that nintendo is back and kicking ass and taking names:P and that sony is......out?

No we dont. Just cause the Wii is doing well know does not mean that it will be doing well for the next year and a half, similarly for the PS3 its fortunes could change

Munkeh said: He300 said: I belive we all agree to this = WII > X360 > PS3 if we all can agree to that, then why should we argue about the details?, 10 millions this and there, who cares? the big thing is that nintendo is back and kicking ass and taking names:P and that sony is......out? No we dont. Just cause the Wii is doing well know does not mean that it will be doing well for the next year and a half, similarly for the PS3 its fortunes could change

Munkeh, pretty sure that's just flame bait. It's a modified version of a statement like: "Of course, clearly we can all agree the Wii sucks, obviously," as if it's common knowledge and there is no argument, when many people would disagree (strongly). 

I totally agree with you, so let's just ignore him :p