My new expectations:

Xbox360: 25M (if the taliban destroy bungie)
Wii: 25M (if Mario dies in the next game^^ and the sales drop in 2008)
PS3: 15M (if BD lose the war and PS3 lose exclusives like FF13 and MGS4)

Xbox 360: 40 million

Wii: 35 million

PlayStation 3: 25 million.

Ill guess the minimums in a lifetime as follow

x360: 37.5 mill

(since it sold rough 10 mill now, lifetime 3x longer + pricedrops and killergames)

ps3:  30 mill

 (they dont sell as much atm but when they drop the price a bit wich eventuellay will happen i see people have money reserves bought wii already and think its accepteble to buy a ps3 aswell (assuming ppl with a x360 dont buy a ps3 because its roughly the same)

wii: 42.5 mill

(its exploding at the moment sold out everywhere and the hype is very high makes it a wannahave item no matter u like it or not, but the sooner the later i think many people will not buy it anymore because the games arent to spectacular and since many people are graphicwhores they dont want a wii anyway. but enough people wanting one and the cheap price ill say 42.5)

endings ill say

x360: 45 mill

ps 3: 50 mill

wii: 65 mill

p.s: someone posted that the ps3 wont do well thanks to the shareholders and they will make a new ps4 by that time.

 imo all 3 are already making new ones :)

I'm honestly pretty surprised at how optimistic these PS3 estimates are.

Independent Worst Case Scenarios:

Nintendo Wii: 40 million - Xbox 360 churns out third-party insanity and the PS3 suddenly comes alive, demolishing the competition in Japan. With no support from Europe or the other regions, progress slows rapidly. However, with that said, the momentum and the power of first-party titles will carry it for a few years before it finally kicks.

Sony PlayStation 3: 10 million* - (Honestly I'm being generous with this estimate, but...) Sony is detonating from within. If it doesn't pick up soon, the Xbox 360 will take all the "powerful" games and the Wii will take all the "lower-end" games. The Wii takes a 90% share of the Japanese market and the Xbox 360 spreads like wildfire across the States. Third parties drop like flies to each of the two other systems, and with barely any first-party material to speak of, Sony collapses. Add in that third parties are already abandoning ship after only 7 months and you have a serious situation. *Sony as a whole is suffering enormous losses on all media fronts. It is a distinct (though admittedly small) possibility that Sony itself could bankrupt.

Microsoft Xbox 360: 25 million - PS3 picks up and demolishes non-American markets, with the Wii picking up any leftover gaps that it hasn't already conquered itself. With third parties slowly leaning exclusives toward the PS3 and Xbox Live subscriptions slowly disappearing, the Xbox slips into a downward spiral.


Combined Worst Case Scenario:

Nintendo Wii: 80 million
Sony PlayStation 3: 10 million
Microsoft Xbox 360: 35 million


Expected Sales:

Nintendo Wii: 165 million
Sony PlayStation 3: 20 million (I feel like I'm being far too generous on this)
Microsoft Xbox 360: 65 million

This is a good topic, although something confused me in the opening post.

You mentioned that the last generation sold about 180 million consoles, and you didn't expect it to go lower--yet your guess, as well as many others, do fall fall below this mark.

Okay, I know that it is "worst case scenario," but with the growth of the gaming industry I still think the combined total should be at least 20 million units higher than last years generation. Next-gen.biz recently had an article which predicted it would grow larger than the music industry for crying out loud! Also, all three consoles are beginining to broaden their audiences by becoming not just gaming machines but multimedia media machines, thus expanding their potential sales far beyond the buyers whom had purchased the last generation (almost exclusively for gaming).

That said, let me just say that I know nothing about video game sales or sales in general, so these numbers will probably only be as legitimate as 95% of the people on this board. Here's my worst case scenario broken down:

Wii 80 Million--

Nintendo is the winner of this generation because of price and accessability, straight up. Wii sports packaged into the system effectively attracts the casual gamer--old and female alike--and a multitude of similar titles give the system even more legs (Big Brain academy is already proving it can stay atop the charts). Once nintendo establishes a strong online showing as well, games like the Rumored Wii Sports 2 could really push social gaming into a much larger market place. Okay, I know that this point is contingent on the Big N's online content being both effective and accessible (much less present in new games), but the fact EA is already announcing online games for the wii makes me think that nintendo's participation is inevitable.

the 360 and ps3 will likely split the rest of the market (one which is filled more exclusively with hardcore gamers like ourselves) and I cant see this market being any smaller than around 120 mill world wide.

If I had to pick the numbers for each respectively I would have to say

360=65 million
ps3=55 million

because the already 360 has the library of great games that we gamers all love. If blue ray takes off though, these numbers could easily be switched.

i could say a lot more about this, but i have already been sort of been all over the place with my analysis so i will quit now. ill try and clean up my thoughts and post again later.

The fact is, realistically, I don't expect one, let alone all three consoles to hit the lows I suggested.  My scenarios assumed only one console had the worst case scenario.

But, in my worst case realistic scenario, the industry does shrink.  In essence, gaming has been growing non stop since 1985.  There was a time when the Japanese market seemed to be shrinking, so I don't think it is too far fetched for the industry to shrink.

My worst realistic industry scenario is more like..150 million consoles sold (vs. my expectation of 195-225 million).  That would assume industry shrank from the highs of the PS2/Xbx/GC/DC generation by 15%, and that assumes that parts of the sector are still growing (meaning the drop is more like 35% among last gen gamers, but it was offset 20% by blueocean/natural expansion to new populations) which would translate into something like this.

Wii - 60 million

360 - 40 million

PS3 - 50 million

My worst case industry scenario is actually higher than the individual forecasts because the individual worst case scenarios assume the direction of the console is completely out of touch with gamers.  In this scenario, all directions of consoles are out touch, meaning that no one console gains on the weakness of the others..

Thanks to the quick response to my confusion TheSource, it was a very informed answer. Logically speaking your arguments are about consistently 10 times better than the rest of the posters. There at least is one point I disagree with, however--and its not so much as in your argument as it is in your choice of words.

I personally think that if you mention the worst possible growth for the "blue ocean" audience specifically, than you have to give more credit than 20% (not that that is a paltry growth to the industry by any means). My primary argument in this vein concerns the overwhelming success we've seen from the Brain age and Nintendogs franchises already. Demographics which were once thought entirely unnattainable to the industry are now purchasing said titles (and others like them) like crazy without any signs of slowing down. For example, I dont think it would be a bad bet for "eye training" to be in the top 5 titles for Japan for at least another 4 weeks. [I think its pretty much a given that many of those buyers are part of the ocean, too--i mean its friggan eye training].

Granted the DS is its own animal and we dont really know how viable the wii (among other audience expanding console products) will be in this market yet, but I think that if the blood free waters of the "blue ocean" are going to be mentioned at all as far as consoles are concerned, than it should at least be given the importance in the industry that its already proven itself to have.

Maybe my understanding of the metaphor is incorrect, but I think the reason an ocean was chosen to represent potential new market is because the ocean, like the amount of potential new consumers, is damn near endless. If one can only find their way to clear waters then the distance they can travel is not nearly as constrained. The markets move on from the finite 18-35 year old male range, to the far more open world of the mainstream.

Of course, as I said, this expanded audience could never be reached by the consoles at all, but if one is to base a prediction on its potential--even in the worst possible conditions--then I think it should be given a bit more credit then 20%.

To sum up and really grind this metaphor to a nub:
Oceans are big.

I'm reviving this thread.

Why?

Well we have some answers now.

PS3 will see two price cuts in 2007, so I think that will help Sony reach mass market sooner.  However, GTA was delayed, and Halo/Madden/Blue Dragon/360's price cut barely pushed 360 above Wii worldwide even during Halo 3 launch week.  Wii looks like it maintain alot of momentum in 2008 - especially in Japan with Wii Ware, Brawl.  Monster Hunters is big too.

Sony will see a boost from LBP/MGS4/GTA 4 early next year in all markets.  If Microsoft is smart, a good time to drop price will be in earlry 08', to counter the Mario Kart-LBP-MGS4-Wii Fit momentum changers with GTA and growing pricing momentum.

I'm going to revise my minimum realistic outlook:

Wii - 60 million.  Wii has an outsold shot of reaching 20.0 million units sold worldwide to gamers by Dec 31 2007.  Sales in 2008 are going to be boosted by Brawl, Mario Kart, Wii Fit and a growing list of significant third party exclusives.  2009 should see new IP/sequels to the first wave of big hits, and by this time I think Wii will be in alot of homes and reaching alot of people if it isnt used that often, or is primarily as a second system.   If sales do slow, Nintendo still can drop price to $200/$150/$100 over the course of 2-4 years as well.

PS3 - 45 million.  I think 4-8 million is realistic for Japan.  I'd go with at least 18 million for the USA and Europe just because Sony has too much at stake not to average 3 million per year - at least - for 6 years.  Even at $600/$500 in the USA (where people are stingy as hell) Sony should sell 3 million PS3s in 2007.  At $400/$500 with GTA and the other games in 2008, they can probably sell 6-10 million units in addition to what has already been sold.  I'd wager alot of the PS2's sport/racing/music game audience will be split between Wii and 360 though, as I think Home is too sophisticated for most people. 

Xbox 360 - 38 million.  I'm expecting at least a 1.5/23.5/13 split (J/A/O) this generation.  Certain types of developers are always going to favor 360 over PS3 or Wii because it is a graphical powerhouse like PS3 - but a) has a more PC like gamer, b) it is going to have a much larger presence in the USA and Europe short term over PS3, and c) developers need to see big returns on the money invested in graphics engines (which neither Wii or PS3 - at least short term - can provide).

My actual expectation for this generation's total sales are ~225 million now.  I expect it to break down like:

Japan (33 million)

360 - 1.5 million

Wii - 24 million

PS3 - 7.5 million

Americas (100 million)

Wii - 45 million

360 - 30 million

PS3 - 25 million

Others, i.e. Europe, Australia, India, New Zealand, Africa, non Japan Asia (92 million)

Wii - 36 million

PS3 - 30 million

360 - 27 million

Worldwide:

Wii - 105 million

PS3 - 62.5 million

Xbox 360 - 58.5 million

Very solid figures - I'm pretty much agreed with all of that.

I still think the Wii can do a lot better - much will depend on how aggressive Ninty are with it. If they can get the 2nd factory up/running by early next year, and start pumping out 2m/month - you'll see an earlier price drop, and much higher sales.

Could they produce and sell 3-4m/month? Would they want to? 4m/month = 50m/year - they could reach 150-200m by 2012.

...

The PS3 is still somewhat of a mystery to me. I want to see how it performs after a price cut AND some big titles hit. I think the "next-generation" has barely begun (is still in transition).

there is alot of faith that the 360 will not grow, and the ps3 will pick up majorly in japan, no doubt the 360 will not gain ground there, in europe if things go like they are the 360 stands a good chance of winning