I'm reviving this thread.
Why?
Well we have some answers now.
PS3 will see two price cuts in 2007, so I think that will help Sony reach mass market sooner. However, GTA was delayed, and Halo/Madden/Blue Dragon/360's price cut barely pushed 360 above Wii worldwide even during Halo 3 launch week. Wii looks like it maintain alot of momentum in 2008 - especially in Japan with Wii Ware, Brawl. Monster Hunters is big too.
Sony will see a boost from LBP/MGS4/GTA 4 early next year in all markets. If Microsoft is smart, a good time to drop price will be in earlry 08', to counter the Mario Kart-LBP-MGS4-Wii Fit momentum changers with GTA and growing pricing momentum.
I'm going to revise my minimum realistic outlook:
Wii - 60 million. Wii has an outsold shot of reaching 20.0 million units sold worldwide to gamers by Dec 31 2007. Sales in 2008 are going to be boosted by Brawl, Mario Kart, Wii Fit and a growing list of significant third party exclusives. 2009 should see new IP/sequels to the first wave of big hits, and by this time I think Wii will be in alot of homes and reaching alot of people if it isnt used that often, or is primarily as a second system. If sales do slow, Nintendo still can drop price to $200/$150/$100 over the course of 2-4 years as well.
PS3 - 45 million. I think 4-8 million is realistic for Japan. I'd go with at least 18 million for the USA and Europe just because Sony has too much at stake not to average 3 million per year - at least - for 6 years. Even at $600/$500 in the USA (where people are stingy as hell) Sony should sell 3 million PS3s in 2007. At $400/$500 with GTA and the other games in 2008, they can probably sell 6-10 million units in addition to what has already been sold. I'd wager alot of the PS2's sport/racing/music game audience will be split between Wii and 360 though, as I think Home is too sophisticated for most people.
Xbox 360 - 38 million. I'm expecting at least a 1.5/23.5/13 split (J/A/O) this generation. Certain types of developers are always going to favor 360 over PS3 or Wii because it is a graphical powerhouse like PS3 - but a) has a more PC like gamer, b) it is going to have a much larger presence in the USA and Europe short term over PS3, and c) developers need to see big returns on the money invested in graphics engines (which neither Wii or PS3 - at least short term - can provide).
My actual expectation for this generation's total sales are ~225 million now. I expect it to break down like:
Japan (33 million)
360 - 1.5 million
Wii - 24 million
PS3 - 7.5 million
Americas (100 million)
Wii - 45 million
360 - 30 million
PS3 - 25 million
Others, i.e. Europe, Australia, India, New Zealand, Africa, non Japan Asia (92 million)
Wii - 36 million
PS3 - 30 million
360 - 27 million
Worldwide:
Wii - 105 million
PS3 - 62.5 million
Xbox 360 - 58.5 million
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
