The fact is, realistically, I don't expect one, let alone all three consoles to hit the lows I suggested. My scenarios assumed only one console had the worst case scenario.
But, in my worst case realistic scenario, the industry does shrink. In essence, gaming has been growing non stop since 1985. There was a time when the Japanese market seemed to be shrinking, so I don't think it is too far fetched for the industry to shrink.
My worst realistic industry scenario is more like..150 million consoles sold (vs. my expectation of 195-225 million). That would assume industry shrank from the highs of the PS2/Xbx/GC/DC generation by 15%, and that assumes that parts of the sector are still growing (meaning the drop is more like 35% among last gen gamers, but it was offset 20% by blueocean/natural expansion to new populations) which would translate into something like this.
Wii - 60 million
360 - 40 million
PS3 - 50 million
My worst case industry scenario is actually higher than the individual forecasts because the individual worst case scenarios assume the direction of the console is completely out of touch with gamers. In this scenario, all directions of consoles are out touch, meaning that no one console gains on the weakness of the others..
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
