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polezo on 27 June 2007
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This is a good topic, although something confused me in the opening post.

You mentioned that the last generation sold about 180 million consoles, and you didn't expect it to go lower--yet your guess, as well as many others, do fall fall below this mark.

Okay, I know that it is "worst case scenario," but with the growth of the gaming industry I still think the combined total should be at least 20 million units higher than last years generation. Next-gen.biz recently had an article which predicted it would grow larger than the music industry for crying out loud! Also, all three consoles are beginining to broaden their audiences by becoming not just gaming machines but multimedia media machines, thus expanding their potential sales far beyond the buyers whom had purchased the last generation (almost exclusively for gaming).

That said, let me just say that I know nothing about video game sales or sales in general, so these numbers will probably only be as legitimate as 95% of the people on this board. Here's my worst case scenario broken down:

Wii 80 Million--

Nintendo is the winner of this generation because of price and accessability, straight up. Wii sports packaged into the system effectively attracts the casual gamer--old and female alike--and a multitude of similar titles give the system even more legs (Big Brain academy is already proving it can stay atop the charts). Once nintendo establishes a strong online showing as well, games like the Rumored Wii Sports 2 could really push social gaming into a much larger market place. Okay, I know that this point is contingent on the Big N's online content being both effective and accessible (much less present in new games), but the fact EA is already announcing online games for the wii makes me think that nintendo's participation is inevitable.

the 360 and ps3 will likely split the rest of the market (one which is filled more exclusively with hardcore gamers like ourselves) and I cant see this market being any smaller than around 120 mill world wide.

If I had to pick the numbers for each respectively I would have to say

360=65 million
ps3=55 million

because the already 360 has the library of great games that we gamers all love. If blue ray takes off though, these numbers could easily be switched.

i could say a lot more about this, but i have already been sort of been all over the place with my analysis so i will quit now. ill try and clean up my thoughts and post again later.