Thanks to the quick response to my confusion TheSource, it was a very informed answer. Logically speaking your arguments are about consistently 10 times better than the rest of the posters. There at least is one point I disagree with, however--and its not so much as in your argument as it is in your choice of words.
I personally think that if you mention the worst possible growth for the "blue ocean" audience specifically, than you have to give more credit than 20% (not that that is a paltry growth to the industry by any means). My primary argument in this vein concerns the overwhelming success we've seen from the Brain age and Nintendogs franchises already. Demographics which were once thought entirely unnattainable to the industry are now purchasing said titles (and others like them) like crazy without any signs of slowing down. For example, I dont think it would be a bad bet for "eye training" to be in the top 5 titles for Japan for at least another 4 weeks. [I think its pretty much a given that many of those buyers are part of the ocean, too--i mean its friggan eye training].
Granted the DS is its own animal and we dont really know how viable the wii (among other audience expanding console products) will be in this market yet, but I think that if the blood free waters of the "blue ocean" are going to be mentioned at all as far as consoles are concerned, than it should at least be given the importance in the industry that its already proven itself to have.
Maybe my understanding of the metaphor is incorrect, but I think the reason an ocean was chosen to represent potential new market is because the ocean, like the amount of potential new consumers, is damn near endless. If one can only find their way to clear waters then the distance they can travel is not nearly as constrained. The markets move on from the finite 18-35 year old male range, to the far more open world of the mainstream.
Of course, as I said, this expanded audience could never be reached by the consoles at all, but if one is to base a prediction on its potential--even in the worst possible conditions--then I think it should be given a bit more credit then 20%.
To sum up and really grind this metaphor to a nub:
Oceans are big.
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