With the general election for US President ramping up, I thought I'd start a thread with predictions. I'll revive this in November when all the results are in, and we'll see who was right.
Large-Scale Factors Favoring Obama:
- Only 28% of Americans aprove of George W. Bush right now.
- The electoral college is calibrated to 10 year census data. Since this is a 2008 election, and people have been moving South & West (Katrina ravaged areas aside) from the North & East, it is likely states in the North and Midwest are over represented relative to what electoral votes they'll lose in 2010. This is probably a net gain of 10 electoral votes for Obama (meaning 10 electoral votes Mccain won't get) before he even does anything.
- Libertarianism seems stronger than usual. Bob Barr is going to hurt Mccain in some states, especially if he taps into that mix of people Ron Paul drew in during the primaries who like civil liberties, want out of Iraq, are pro-life, and interpret the constitution strictly. Barr is from Georgia, and since Mccain has trouble with religious Republicans...some of the South may be in play.
Large-Scale Factors Favoring Mccain:
- The Democratic primary season was bitter, long and divided. Some of the record turnout on the Democratic side will likely go to Mccain since Hilary can no longer be president. I'd peg it at 3-5% of the general election vote.
- Obama has major issues in Appalachia, even in places like West Virginia, Arkansas, etc that have gone for Democratic nominees.
- Racism/crypto Muslim allegations. Obama is a Christian. He is the son of a Black Kenyan and a White Kansan and his middle name is 'Hussein'. Some people hate Muslims, some hate Blacks, some hate people from interacial backgrounds.
Subtle Trends that Favor Obama:
- Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa seem to be winnable for Obama.
- Obama is a much better speaker than Mccain, and simply looks better by not having skin cancer or age questions. In debates, Obama will look more 'presidential' when the cameras zoom in one his face.
- Obama has unbelievable fundraising ability and should get help soon from Clinton fundraisers.
Suble Trends that Favor Mccain:
- Mccain has potentially more reliable demographics - older people vote in higher percentages than young people.
- Mccain has more political/military/general experience than Obama in the eyes of most voters.
- Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan seem to be winnable for Mccain.
Here is my guess on how this all plays out, electoral vote totals can be seen here:
| State | Electoral | Obama | Mccain | Barr | Nader | Other |
| California | 55 | 51.0% | 44.0% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Texas | 34 | 40.0% | 56.0% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| New York | 31 | 52.0% | 46.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Florida | 27 | 47.8% | 49.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Illinois | 21 | 65.0% | 32.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 44.0% | 46.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Ohio | 20 | 46.0% | 49.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Michigan | 17 | 48.0% | 46.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| New Jersey | 15 | 53.0% | 44.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Georgia | 15 | 46.0% | 44.0% | 8.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| North Carolina | 15 | 46.0% | 50.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Virginia | 13 | 50.0% | 44.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Massachusetts | 12 | 51.0% | 47.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Washington | 11 | 55.0% | 35.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Tennesse | 11 | 38.0% | 55.0% | 6.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Misouri | 11 | 47.0% | 47.5% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Indiana | 11 | 48.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Minnesota | 10 | 54.0% | 42.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 53.0% | 45.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Arizona | 10 | 38.0% | 59.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Maryland | 10 | 55.0% | 44.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado | 9 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Lousiaina | 9 | 45.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Alabama | 9 | 43.0% | 50.0% | 6.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Kentucky | 8 | 41.0% | 52.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| South Carolina | 8 | 35.5% | 57.0% | 7.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Connecticut | 7 | 48.0% | 44.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Oregon | 7 | 52.0% | 40.0% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Iowa | 7 | 55.0% | 39.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 45.0% | 51.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Kansas | 6 | 44.0% | 46.0% | 6.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% |
| Arkansas | 6 | 47.5% | 50.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Mississippi | 6 | 45.0% | 50.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Utah | 5 | 44.0% | 52.0% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Nevada | 5 | 43.0% | 44.5% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Nebraska | 5 | 47.0% | 50.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| West Virginia | 5 | 36.0% | 56.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| New Mexico | 5 | 51.0% | 44.0% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| Idaho | 4 | 40.0% | 42.5% | 14.0% | 0.5% | 3.0% |
| Hawaii | 4 | 54.0% | 42.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 40.0% | 53.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 53.0% | 41.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Maine | 4 | 50.5% | 40.5% | 7.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Vermont | 3 | 55.0% | 38.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| DC | 3 | 69.0% | 21.0% | 8.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Alaska | 3 | 44.0% | 45.0% | 9.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Montana | 3 | 40.0% | 43.0% | 13.0% | 0.5% | 3.5% |
| Wyoming | 3 | 34.0% | 55.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% |
| North Dakota | 3 | 44.0% | 49.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Dakota | 3 | 42.0% | 45.0% | 10.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Delaware | 3 | 52.0% | 45.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
If the scenario above played out it would mean Obama wins.
The Obama Coalition: 22 States & DC for 276 electoral votes (and probably 61 million votes or so):
Obama loving States (with over 50% of the vote) are 19 (and DC):
NJ, CA, NY, Ill, DC, WA, OR, VA, Mass, RI, Maine, VT, De, NM, CO, Iowa, WI, Minnesota, Hawaii, Maryland
Obama Plurality State Wins (3):
Michigan - Reagan Democrats will go for Mccain, but Obama will eke out a victory because of historic Black turnout in Detroit.
Connecticut - Lieberman will endorse Mccain, making the race close here.
Georgia - Barr will hurt Mccain in rural Georgia, where he is beloved, and a hero. Perot did it to Bush 1 in 92', giving Clinton the win in Georgia despite only getting a plurality.
The Mccain Coalition: 28 states for 262 electoral votes (and probably 55 million votes)
Mccain loving states (with over 50% of the vote) are 16
Tx, NC, TN, AL, AZ, KY, SC, OK, Ark, Miss, Ut, Neb, WV, NH, WY, FL
Mccain Pluarality State Wins (12):
PA, OH, Ind - Reagan Democrats go for Mccain in large enough numbers to give him the plurality to offset historic Black turnout in Philadelphia, Cincinatti, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus, Indianapolis etc.
Missouri - I have this race as the closest in the country, but I think Mccain ekes it out, Misouri is almost never wrong in picking the guy who actually ends up President.
Lousiania, Kansas, Nevada - Close because of a) Katrina fall out b) Obama's midwestern strength, c) Hispanics splitting closely, and a significant libertarian influence.
Idaho, Alaska, Montana - These are libertarian, surprisingly well educated states, which bodes well for Obama for 'red states' and libertarians, but Mccain will eke out wins anyway.
ND/SD - SD is well educated and libertarian which is tough, North Dakota is influenced by its neighbors...
How do you all see it playing out? This isn't meant to be a discussion of policy, just who will win...and why.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
