Great analysis, Mr. Source.
I am rooting for Obama and believe that he will prevail. I disagree with you about some of the states though..
Obama will likely win in Pennsylvania, it was close for a while but he's pulling ahead in polls and could really increases his chances by picking Sen. Casey (who has been a long-time supporter) as VP.
Georgia, Florida and Louisiana are trending to be even more conservative. The problem for Democrats in these states is a large suburban and exurban population vs. one or two relatively small cities and that heavily favors Republicans.