Beyond software sales, I also feel like if this is a really well done remake it could be a system seller; Ocarina is a cherished treasure for many Millennials, and people will often pay up to relive their childhoods.

20m easily.

It will be treated as a new Zelda game and for many it will be the "real" follow up to BOTW. Don't ask me to explain that, it's just true lol.

Keep in mind the Zelda movie comes out 4months after it.

Provided quality is there and Switch 2 sales don't crater too much after the price rise I think it will outsell TOTK long term too.

I can't imagine hardcore Zelda fans skipping it, I also think it will be way more going for it compared to TOTK (too similar to BOTW on surface. Many people probably haven't finished BOTW)

The GTA comparison is something that I suspected might happen and honestly Nintendo should lean into it with a Black Friday launch  (I know they won't). I don't think they'd be any risk to them launching on the same day as GTA. It would get way more people speaking about Zelda than just the core gaming circle alone, and lots of people without particular interest in the franchise would probably give twice a look just to be contrary and give the finger to GTA. Ultimately any sales it misses out on week one it will make up over the rest of the holidays. There is no genuine loss and the GTA vs OOT would dominate news cycles even if there is no real sales competition lol.

The same happened with "Barbenheimer"

"The absurdity of pairing a bubblegum-pink doll movie with a brooding historical drama about the atomic bomb sparked viral internet memes, specialized apparel, and a popular double-feature viewing trend. Rather than cannibalizing each other's ticket sales, the rivalry created organic marketing that ultimately boosted box-office revenue for both films."

You know, theres something funny about N64. Despite the not phenomenal numbers, it got an incredible perpetuation and dissemination effect bc of its durability (media and system, that thing was really robust, i lost the count on how many times it fell straight to the ground from a higher furniture during stressed gameplay sessions lol) and couch multiplayer focused.

I for example, love many N64 games, but I am younger than most of its titles and that was only possible bc my uncle gave away to me knowing that i would give a better use and I did. After I got older, the same system was passed to several friends and relatives. Now, it is stored and malfunctioned, but it lasted for decades giving entertainment time for many. I also know a lot people from all ages that passed through the same process with their second hand N64's 

So its pretty naive to judge a N64 remaked game potential only by its software sales numbers

I don't think it'll do BOTW/TOTK numbers (which is completely understandable honestly), it's probably going to end somewhere between 10m and 15m

Yeah the N64 was one of those systems whose impact surpasses its actual sales, as it had many of the best and most groundbreaking games of that generation.

Sega Mega Drive, Nintendo 64, GameCube, and Xbox have had much bigger cultural impacts than the sheer units sold of hardware and software. Obviously, that's thanks to emulation and the second-hand market (and the ability to play GameCube games on Wii and Xbox games on Xbox 360 onward).

It's also easy to forget SNES sold under 50 million units considering the cultural impact it has had. 

Nintendo 64 sales were very promising at first, they just dried up a lot after March 2000, and it was the juggernaut of the new player Sony that was the threat. 

The OOT remake might be the premiere 3D Zelda on Switch 2 for all we know. The Switch 2 successor will probably launch between 2032-2034 and we know how long most 3D Zelda games take now. Wii U never got an original 3D Zelda, as not only did Wii U have a short life but BOTW was made cross-gen. 

While its true that it won't reach all the BotW fanbase, a lot of those have never played a traditional Zelda and can espicially be introduced, specially on a game with the hype of Ocarina of Time.

So yeah, it can reach around 20 million all time and 5-10 million in the first 2 months.

The used game market was also much, much healthier back then, and some of the youngsters might not believe this, but we had whole brick and mortar stores dedicated to the business of letting you rent games for a small fee. There are so many games I played and finished back in the day via rentals instead of buying them.