Hi everyone,

With the rapid growth of AI, data centers, we’ve been seeing recurring shortages and price increases in key components, RAM, and semiconductors in general. So I'm just asking, will it get better ?

Unlike with gravity, in this instance, what goes up rarely comes back down.

Yes, it will get better, but not anytime soon. It is quite likely that one of the AI players will get into trouble because of too much debt. We already saw a decline in growth at Oracle and Braodcom just this week. It should be noticable at other companies in the near future, which will lead to fewer investments in AI. That alone can be enough to cause massive reactions on the market.

I wouldn't say that a bursting AI bubble is imminent, but I also wouldn't rule such a scenario out. It is very clear though that the AI players are investing far more than they will ever get back. So a correction of that is inevitable. Manufactures are ramping up production like there's no tomorrow at the moment. They will face a lower demand sometime in the future.

I wouldn't expect lower prices next year. But I think it's likely they will go down drastically in 2027 or 2028.

economies dont work this way, things goes up ONLY. vote for better leaders and always side with regulators.

Why would it? The push for AI will be the end of everyone anyway.

Things that humans are responsible for are only inevitable if we allow them to be. That we've failed as a species to reign in certain harmful technologies says just as much about our institutions of governance as it does about the economic systems that produced those harmful things. We actually used to address negative externalities, and doing so wasn't some part of some hyper-partisan pissing contest like it is today. The EPA was created after rivers literally caught fire. The Montreal Protocol was created after the hole in the ozone layer was discovered. We phased out lead compounds in gasoline. We phased out asbestos. We managed to better regulate tobacco products and were able to get smoking rates cut by more than three quarters. If we can do that, we can do something about the devastating effects of things like global warming or generative A.I. It's only a matter of political and societal will.

AI is a bubble that will eventually pop.

It won't go away, of course not, it'll be very relevant in the future, but all this chase towards it will eventually cool down a lot.

So yes, I'll get better, but it will take time, my guess is around 2 years top for it to be stable, with lots of investment and results, but not every single company giving their all for it.

I think you should be more worried about AI than the prices of game consoles lol

Probably not. I remember in early 2018 I bought a GTX 1060 for about $160.

RTX 5060's cost about $300 now. That's +88% in price, when general inflation was +31% from 2018 to 2025. You'd expect that GTX 1060 to cost about $210 now, if prices tracked with inflation. 

The reality is that the world is getting more compute-hungry. This is independent from "AI" which is really a broad scope of many different things. Unless there is a paradigm shift (and no, a bubble collapsing isn't that) or we learn how to massively increase supply this is the new normal.

If anything, memory will continue to increase in price as we continue to move toward more in-memory computing and away from pure Von Neumann architectures.This has been the set trend as early as 2008, but probably even before then.