The PS5 will likely sell <850k this year in Japan.  We're looking at about a 45% drop from last year's 1.5m.  And that's with Monster Hunter's release and no Switch 2 for five months of the year.  Even with GTA6 next year, the drop will likely be larger than that for 2026, with the system likely selling <500k, and a much larger drop for 2027.  That would put the console at maybe 8m by 2028, which as I've said before, it'll probably cross in the end.  But as you've pointed out, there are factors like an early launch of PS6 or even a PS handheld that could possibly change that outcome, even if unlikely.

On the other hand, there is no scenario where the PS5 reaches 9m at all.  No matter when new Sony hardware releases.  You need to understand that interest in the PS5 and its software just isn't there in Japan going forward with Switch 2 on the market.  The vast majority of Playstation fans and people who buy everything have already got it.  Switch 2 will be the de facto system for the region.  It is a very different market from the rest of the world where there is plenty of interest for both a "Playstation" and a "Switch".

So no, 9m for the PS5 is not a realistic possibility in Japan, crawling or otherwise.

The way things are going the the Switch 2 is going to pass the PS5's lifetime sales in short order. Over/Under the Switch 2 passing the PS5 lifetimes by it's year anniversary?

The drop is so big cause of a price increase so I think it'll be more stable going forward as long as it doesn't get another one. I really don't think sub 500k next year is happening unless that happens so I expect it to be quite close to 8m by the end of next year so it'll be getting there by early 2027, not 2028.

As I said before it'll be at 7.2-7.3m by the end of this year so a 2028 launch for the PS6 means it'd just to average a bit over 500k the next three years to crawl there with some extra sales post 2028. That doesn't seem like that big of an ask to me considering aspects like holiday sales and occasional discounts like the one that ended earlier this month.

A console that is selling 6K-7K weekly sales in its fifth year on the market obviously won't have good legs, it has already proven to have bad legs. Switch 1 hasn't even reached those weekly sales in Japan after being on the market for a longer time plus having been replaced by a new console. So no, PS5 won't rack up much better sales figures than it has today, it will continue to crawl in sub 10K weekly sales with a few bumps here and there during holidays and promotions.

I guess the main interesting factor regarding PS5 in Japan will be to follow its competition with Switch 1 sales during the rest of 2025 and 2026 (As long as Switch 1 units are still being produced really).

Raidou did quite some work on the chart this week.

If you're going to continue to believe that the PS5's main issue in Japan is the price then the numbers you put up will just continue to be implausible.  The only part of your post that makes sense is the console being at 7.2-7.3m by the end of this year, which I do believe is possible (albeit on the low end of that).

But there is no way the PS5 will be quite close to 8m by the end of next year in Japan and it certainly won't average a bit over 500k for the next three years.  Not even close.

Even with Mario Kart World now out, Mario Kart 8 stays in the top ten. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing is still charting 20 years after its initial release in 2014.

PS5 is now down over 70% YOY, and less than half the Switch 1 this week even after that console's replacement. Not looking good.

This is such a bizarre take. Of course the second week drop for Switch 2 was going to be massive for two reasons:

1. Units are stockpiled for a console launch, so the amount of available consoles is multiple times higher than regular weekly supply.

2. Switch 2 set a new launch record and the launch allocation was multiple times higher than the previous few Nintendo launches where a good 300k units were supplied for each one. There wasn't merely a stockpile, there was a massive stockpile for launch this time around.

People need to look at ShadowLink93's tables to get a better understanding of how weekly sales after launch work. Percentages are meaningless when the raw numbers are so different to begin with.

I consider it amazing that Nintendo has been able to supply 150k and 140k consoles in week 2 and 3, respectively. When you look at the Switch 1 table for the year 2017, Nintendo hasn't been able to supply 100k+ in any week without deliberate stockpiling beforehand. What we are witnessing right now is that Nintendo's Switch 2 production is set at such a high level already that they are able to ship 100k+ per week to Japan on a regular basis this year. It's just two weeks yet, but I expect more to come.

Also, weekly sales are probably going to gradually decline from week to week (but remain above 100k), because Nintendo might stockpile a little bit for Donkey Kong Bananza's release in mid-July and have 200k+ systems available for that week.

I don’t understand people who think think that the switch 2 would see a lack of demand in Japan !?

For some reason Famitsu didn't release the top 30 software today. I'll try to keep track of it and will post if/when it gets released.