Well I would try and have both. 

This generation has taught us that Nintendo doesn't follow precedent. Nintendo will do what they want in the moment, and that might be fulfilling the forecast of 13.5m Switch, so they might reveal the next gen Switch very late in the FY.

I feel you, for me that thing would be revealed yesterday lol

Not so sure about a late 2025 launch. They could be moving into Apple-style shorter announcement-circles.

We know that this thing has been shopped around behind closed doors for quite a while by now, bigger companies likely have dev kits in hand already, and from Iwatas comments back in 2014 about where the Nintendo ecosystem is headed, I think they want to make sure that the transition between systems is smooth for developers. Iwata specifically mentioned iOS and Android as examples for good practice as software platforms unifying a diverse hardware ecosystem.

I think it’s possible that the successors software is heavily based on the switches OS (and with the Hardware coming from NVIDIA again, chances are it’s going to be hardware compatible as well), making it easier for developers to port their games over and support both systems simultaneously. 

So taking all that into account, we can assume that there’s going to be a decent amount of software ready at launch, so they might have a significantly shorter circle from announcement to release again. It worked for them with the Switch and they might make it even shorter for the Switches successor.

Ninetndo will do as they always do and base it off the game. Mario/Smash/Kart will be 60fps, new zelda/xenoblade etc will be 30fps.

I do wander what they will do with BC, whether they'll allow native boots or try and repackage the game. Doubt I'll go back to play it but BOTW/TOTK will be a dream at 1440p60fps

Way too many people are sticking to hopes and desires instead of reality. They could have easily said announcement coming this year instead of the fiscal year. That right there tells us it's likely coming after the holiday because the holiday quarter will be crucial in meeting their goal. It does seem likely the successor is releasing holiday 2025 which I first saw Zhuge hint towards when talking about the Super Mario Bros 2 movie coming in April 2026. Releasing Switch 2 with a brand new 3D Mario and tons of 3rd party titles in holiday 2025 and then Mario Kart X in the Spring 2026 with the movie could be huge causing tons of synergy. Pokemons 30th anniversary would be that year as well and would be a great holiday 2026 title. So in the first 12 months of Switch 2 could be 3D Mario, Mario Kart X, and Pokemon Gen 10 as the headliners.

Hmmm, Nintendo have been pretty consistent this generation in making smart business decisions. It's less about following precedent and more about following sense. Nintendo will prioritise the perfect launch of the Switch 2 (the future of their business) over squeezing an extra 1m units out of the Switch this holiday, and that means announcing it when is most beneficial to the new platform. I'll comfortably bet:

A spring 2025 launch means a fall 2024 reveal.
Autumn 2025 launch means early 2025 reveal.

If you have a product releasing early in the new year, you want awareness of it before your potential audience invests elsewhere, even if that means in one of your own products. Someone who just bought a PS5 or PS5 Pro in December will be less likely to buy a Switch 2 in Summer 2025, someone who just spent $300 on an OLED Switch this holiday will be less likely to be an early adopter for Switch 2.

I agree with everything said except Gen 10 Pokémon. Game Freak usually waits a year before bringing their games to the next new console.

What is your definition of heavy hitter? I don’t really consider games like ARMS, Pokken Tournament, Fire Emblem Warriors or Xenoblade Chronicles 2 to be heavy hitters.

Switch’s first year lineup was a big hitter per quarter (Q1-Zelda, Q2-Mario Kart, Q3-Splatoon, Q4-3D Mario) and 1-2 small/medium size titles to fill in the gaps. It also didn’t have that many Wii U ports in its first year, it had BoTW as a cross-gen release but Mario Kart 8 and Pokken were the only late ports.

Switch definitely had a great first year lineup but I think some people on this site are remembering it as being more stacked than it really was. Also Switch 2 doesn’t necessarily have to have as stacked as a 1st year lineup as Switch 1 did. Switch was a new concept coming off the failure of Wii U and mediocre performance of 3DS, it had to come out guns blazing.

Fiscal year is very typical for investor calls and as always things are not set in stone including potential for the system to be delayed and thus the announcement. The framing also doesn't induce any questions of the system releasing this year. If Nintendo said the console was being announced this year, they would be a flurry of speculation it is a holiday release. They've specified Junes Direct will not feature it but that leaves the whole second half of the year lol