My speculation is that they’ll announce it early 2025.

Now for this second half of 2024, what do we all expect it to contain? I have a list (and posted it 2x already though with other context and other topics along with it, so I won’t post it again)

If Metroid Prime4 is crossgen, I expect a first trailer this Direct with a release year of 2025. Just as BotW had its name reveal at E3 2016, with a 2017 release window. If its Switch1 only, also a definitive with October/November 2024 release date.

If Metroid Prime4 does not show up this direct, it's going to be Switch2 only game. But with Nintendo calling out Prime4 for years in their financial reports I believe this has low probability. Therefore I think Metroid Prime4 is a given.

------

I expect something Zelda. Wind Waker HD & Twilight Princess HD though use Wii U Mii-verse functionality (bottles, stamps, respectively), so they would not be 'simple ports'. It would require rework.

Also a bundle of these 2 games is out of the question, because of different age ratings. I cannot see Nintendo bundling Wind Waker with Twilight Princess and then needing a Teen age rating for both. It would therefore be one of them if any...but...

I actually expect it's a higher probability we get A Link Between Worlds, possibly bundled with Triforce Heroes.

I enjoy reading your speculation and analysis of what could be. 
Personally, I do expect MP4 announcement this June Direct, with a release in October.

The successor will be B/C so I’m not worried about if it will be a cross-gen.

Oooo I had totally forgotten the idea of having LoZ remakes. And yes I agree that WW and TP would not be bundled together.

Maybe we could see Mario remakes with the Wonder Seed?

I hope dev kits have been in developers' hands for a while now. Games take years to make these days, and while the Switch 2 will have the benefit of immediate publisher confidence that the Switch didn't, it won't have the benefit of a pipeline of a dozen Wii U ports to fill gaps between entirely new games.

Your concerns about the Switch successor's first year line up is sound but at the same time, it is clear the "delayed" release of the new console is also because they exactly want to have a solid first year line up. 

Nintendo is definitely not eager to the point of repeating the WiiU 1st year path. 

Anywoo, I'll expect the 3rd party effort on the next console to support adequately it's success early on, if it's a fairly good effort from them. Technically Nintendo wouldn't need to go on with the 4 big first party hitter strategy if they can get one or two of those from devs like Capcom (MH Wilds ?) or anything else.

Personally, I do think a new 3D Mario and Mario Kart 9 or whatever are sure given for the first year. Just these 2 will be great enough to assure a good first year showing from them, nonetheless if they have other games also coming in that first year (Metroid Prime 4, new Monolith Soft project ?, etc...)

I would expect this to be announced next year. If it was this year, you figure they'd announce it at the June Direct.

Hopefully Nintendo has been manufacturing switch 2 units for a while now and will have millions available for launch. I do not want to see another ps5 situation where the hardware is hard to get for 2 years.

They wouldn't. All of the hardware manufacturers have made a point of having specific showcases to properly reveal their new consoles. It makes sense to separate it from showcases of your old system/games. 

When the Switch 2 is revealed, it & its games will be the sole news coming from Nintendo on that day, no need to dilute that with Switch Autumn and Holiday titles etc

They are unlikely to do that as hardware sitting, doing nothing hits the financial books pretty hard.  Say it costs $200 per unit to manufacture and they have 2 million ready.  That's a $400 million hit on the FY.  That runs contrary to their projects for the year.  There is also the standard expectation that the BoM (Build of Materials - the cost for all pieces that make the device) would be cheaper in time.  Meaning that $200 BoM now might be $175 later. 

Ideally, you want mass production to begin about 4 months prior to launch.  That gives you a couple of million units at launch with enough shipment time to hit stores.  You don't take the unnecessary FY hit and your BoM is likely cheaper per unit.

If I recall, Sony's situation was due to inadequate supply from a couple of vendors and they were locked into those supply deals. Nintendo has already diversified much of their supply chain starting from the Switch so it's likely the successor will have the same or even better supply diversification.

All numbers are speculation and are used merely for explanation.

Yes, but that showcase to reveal their new console could have been the June direct.