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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 10, 2024 (Mar 04 - Mar 10)

Fitness Boxing with Hatsune Miku selling dem Switches.



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The Switch is randomly up this week YoY for some reason so Japanese sales really are an anomaly at this point.

archbrix said:
CosmicSex said:

This is a very poor take IMO because the PS5 sales are still above PS4 sales when aligned. Then again maybe you think the PS4 was also 'unpopular'.  The situation in Japan is unique.  But I think calling PS5 unpopular is disingenuous.  Xbox is not popular in Japan.  Also, I don't agree with the idea that Switch can only do well if someone else is seen as unpopular.  Switch can be selling well and PS5 can still be outpacing the PS4 and doing well at the same time.

Except that the PS5 is not doing well at the same time. 

No, the PS4 wasn't as "unpopular"; it was up against WiiU and 3DS, with the successful latter only about 3 years old when PS4 launched and the handheld had plenty of room to grow, with big games still to arrive.  So the PS4 had a fight on its hands and still managed its respective sales.  The Switch, on the other hand, is 7 years old now, has already played its biggest cards and the new system comes out in a year... and the PS5 still can't beat its sales for more than a week or two here or there - sometimes even when big games come out for it. 

And as others have pointed out, unlike PS4, some of those PS5 sales are not accurate for the region due to exporting.  What does it matter whether you can say the same thing about Switch?  Switch's sales numbers aren't a problem in that regard because, unlike PS5, sales are still great for its age and saturation point when factoring in exporting.

And sugarcoating the physical PS5 software sales with the "digital now being higher" argument only helps so much.  We're not just talking Switch beating PS5 on the top 30 physical charts, but dominating it.  That is bad no matter how you spin it for a console just coming off of its peak year up against one that it is being succeeded in a year, with years-old evergreens still outpacing much of PS5's new stuff weekly.

Do you really expect PS5 to be able to keep pace with PS4 aligned once Switch 2 arrives?  Now should be the time we see the bigger PS5 numbers because there is little chance that's going to happen next year in Japan.

Your overall point is right but considering it has about a 600k lead over the PS4 and is increasing that lead every week it should stay ahead of the PS4 long term even if the lead gets smaller later on.



Norion said:

The Switch is randomly up this week YoY for some reason so Japanese sales really are an anomaly at this point.

archbrix said:

Except that the PS5 is not doing well at the same time. 

No, the PS4 wasn't as "unpopular"; it was up against WiiU and 3DS, with the successful latter only about 3 years old when PS4 launched and the handheld had plenty of room to grow, with big games still to arrive.  So the PS4 had a fight on its hands and still managed its respective sales.  The Switch, on the other hand, is 7 years old now, has already played its biggest cards and the new system comes out in a year... and the PS5 still can't beat its sales for more than a week or two here or there - sometimes even when big games come out for it. 

And as others have pointed out, unlike PS4, some of those PS5 sales are not accurate for the region due to exporting.  What does it matter whether you can say the same thing about Switch?  Switch's sales numbers aren't a problem in that regard because, unlike PS5, sales are still great for its age and saturation point when factoring in exporting.

And sugarcoating the physical PS5 software sales with the "digital now being higher" argument only helps so much.  We're not just talking Switch beating PS5 on the top 30 physical charts, but dominating it.  That is bad no matter how you spin it for a console just coming off of its peak year up against one that it is being succeeded in a year, with years-old evergreens still outpacing much of PS5's new stuff weekly.

Do you really expect PS5 to be able to keep pace with PS4 aligned once Switch 2 arrives?  Now should be the time we see the bigger PS5 numbers because there is little chance that's going to happen next year in Japan.

Your overall point is right but considering it has about a 600k lead over the PS4 and is increasing that lead every week it should stay ahead of the PS4 long term even if the lead gets smaller later on.

It may increase a bit more in the short term, but once Switch 2 hits the market I think the PS5's trajectory will change pretty drastically and could lose too much ground to keep up with PS4 going forward.

It's true that when you just look at the hardware comparison right now between PS4 and PS5 on paper it doesn't look that bad but when you look at the bigger picture, things change.  Basically, PS4 came out 3 years into 3DS' life and had to contend with the Switch 3 years later (with the WiiU as competition too, but... meh) and the console still managed 9.67m in the end.  Whereas the PS5 came out almost 4 years into Switch's life and won't have to contend with Switch 2 until over 4 years later, giving it more time with less competition.  So the PS5 should probably be more ahead than it is, especially when you consider the exporting.

We know the PS4 held up as well as it did in Japan once the Switch arrived, but I really don't think the PS5 will stand a chance against Switch 2.  We'll see though.



archbrix said:
Norion said:

Your overall point is right but considering it has about a 600k lead over the PS4 and is increasing that lead every week it should stay ahead of the PS4 long term even if the lead gets smaller later on.

It may increase a bit more in the short term, but once Switch 2 hits the market I think the PS5's trajectory will change pretty drastically and could lose too much ground to keep up with PS4 going forward.

It's true that when you just look at the hardware comparison right now between PS4 and PS5 on paper it doesn't look that bad but when you look at the bigger picture, things change.  Basically, PS4 came out 3 years into 3DS' life and had to contend with the Switch 3 years later (with the WiiU as competition too, but... meh) and the console still managed 9.67m in the end.  Whereas the PS5 came out almost 4 years into Switch's life and won't have to contend with Switch 2 until over 4 years later, giving it more time with less competition.  So the PS5 should probably be more ahead than it is, especially when you consider the exporting.

We know the PS4 held up as well as it did in Japan once the Switch arrived, but I really don't think the PS5 will stand a chance against Switch 2.  We'll see though.

The issue is it would have to be insanely drastic to fall behind at this point. It'll be over 6.5m by the end of this year so another 3.5m the next few years to reach 10m is very attainable when it would just need to average a bit under 900k the next four years to do that. Even a bit under 1.2m on average the next three shouldn't be difficult when it has Monster Hunter Wilds to give 2025 a boost. There's also that as long as the exporting keeps happening it'll keep selling a lot more than 1.2m a year. I just can't see any possibility of it falling behind unless the exporting stops soon and demand in Japan falls off a cliff.



This damn thing just won't. stop. selling!
There's no telling where the Switch's final tally will be when all is said and done!



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xMetroid said:

This is supposed to be the year PS5 takes over and profits from Switch not having much cards left to play...the chatter around Switch 2 really isn't slowing down the sales.
Glad they are taking their time to launch it. Games take so much time to make these days, i'd rather have a console launch 6-8 months later but have a killer first year than have a situation like PS5/Xbox where there is still troubles in the release calendar.

That's really because there is no chatter about Switch 2 yet.  From a market impact perspective, it's non-existent.



IcaroRibeiro said:
CosmicSex said:

This is odd because you could say the same thing is happening to Switch.  If Switch really is that popular wouldn't it be the prime target of exports?  Wouldn't that in and of itself be able to explain its sales retention? 

Switch has far more exports than PS5, it has been the case since its release in 2017. My first Switch was indeed Japanese. It's one of the reasons for Switch relatively weak ROW in comparison with Sony brand 

The case is even with higher exports in absolute numbers an humongous number of Switch units stays in Japan, probably not the case for Playstation 

Does it matter that they export Japanese sold consoles to somewhere else?

If it’s sold in Japan then it’s sold in Japan. They don’t double count.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Switch has far more exports than PS5, it has been the case since its release in 2017. My first Switch was indeed Japanese. It's one of the reasons for Switch relatively weak ROW in comparison with Sony brand 

The case is even with higher exports in absolute numbers an humongous number of Switch units stays in Japan, probably not the case for Playstation 

Does it matter that they export Japanese sold consoles to somewhere else?

If it’s sold in Japan then it’s sold in Japan. They don’t double count.

It is kind of used as an excuse why software isn't that high.






archbrix said:
CosmicSex said:

Except that the PS5 is not doing well at the same time. 

No, the PS4 wasn't as "unpopular"; it was up against WiiU and 3DS, with the successful latter only about 3 years old when PS4 launched and the handheld had plenty of room to grow, with big games still to arrive.  So the PS4 had a fight on its hands and still managed its respective sales.  The Switch, on the other hand, is 7 years old now, has already played its biggest cards and the new system comes out in a year... and the PS5 still can't beat its sales for more than a week or two here or there - sometimes even when big games come out for it. 

And as others have pointed out, unlike PS4, some of those PS5 sales are not accurate for the region due to exporting.  What does it matter whether you can say the same thing about Switch?  Switch's sales numbers aren't a problem in that regard because, unlike PS5, sales are still great for its age and saturation point when factoring in exporting.

And sugarcoating the physical PS5 software sales with the "digital now being higher" argument only helps so much.  We're not just talking Switch beating PS5 on the top 30 physical charts, but dominating it.  That is bad no matter how you spin it for a console just coming off of its peak year up against one that it is being succeeded in a year, with years-old evergreens still outpacing much of PS5's new stuff weekly.

Do you really expect PS5 to be able to keep pace with PS4 aligned once Switch 2 arrives?  Now should be the time we see the bigger PS5 numbers because there is little chance that's going to happen next year in Japan.

Not really sure of your logic here. Switch is way more competitive then Wii U & 3DS. The PS4 essentially had a home console generation to itself lol

PS5's last year sales were already record breaking for a playstation system. If that was it's peak, it's not a bad one.

And judging PS5 sales in context of Switch makes no sense. The Switch is a phenomenon and already the best selling console of all time in Japan. It's also seeing a lift exclusively in Japan that makes no sense to most observers in this thread unless you can explain it? 

I do however agree that the PS5 sales should be judged with the expectation that a fair amount is being shipped abroad. But for that you must have a base expectation which is more than just comparing it to whatever switch sold for the week. 



Shtinamin_ said:

 

Does it matter that they export Japanese sold consoles to somewhere else?

It doesn't. But it helps to explain why Japanese sales are often so high and the software attach rate is slightly inferior to elsewhere (in the case of Playstation immensity inferior to elsewhere)

Japan have been exporting consoles to east Asia, and to some extent to other countries with limited or no console distribution.