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archbrix said:
It may increase a bit more in the short term, but once Switch 2 hits the market I think the PS5's trajectory will change pretty drastically and could lose too much ground to keep up with PS4 going forward. It's true that when you just look at the hardware comparison right now between PS4 and PS5 on paper it doesn't look that bad but when you look at the bigger picture, things change. Basically, PS4 came out 3 years into 3DS' life and had to contend with the Switch 3 years later (with the WiiU as competition too, but... meh) and the console still managed 9.67m in the end. Whereas the PS5 came out almost 4 years into Switch's life and won't have to contend with Switch 2 until over 4 years later, giving it more time with less competition. So the PS5 should probably be more ahead than it is, especially when you consider the exporting. We know the PS4 held up as well as it did in Japan once the Switch arrived, but I really don't think the PS5 will stand a chance against Switch 2. We'll see though. |
The issue is it would have to be insanely drastic to fall behind at this point. It'll be over 6.5m by the end of this year so another 3.5m the next few years to reach 10m is very attainable when it would just need to average a bit under 900k the next four years to do that. Even a bit under 1.2m on average the next three shouldn't be difficult when it has Monster Hunter Wilds to give 2025 a boost. There's also that as long as the exporting keeps happening it'll keep selling a lot more than 1.2m a year. I just can't see any possibility of it falling behind unless the exporting stops soon and demand in Japan falls off a cliff.
