For reference, here's how much the Switch sold in past calendar years:

2017: 14.86 Million

2018: 17.41 Million (+17% YOY)

2019: 20.21 Million (+16% YOY)

2020: 27.41 Million (+36% YOY)

2021: 23.67 Million (-14% YOY)

2022: 19.01 Million (-20% YOY)

2023: 16.81 Million (-12% YOY)

Here is the YOY percent drop similar Nintendo Consoles experienced the year and a quarter before the successor launched (To compare potential drop off to presumed Switch launch in Q1 2025):

Nintendo DS: -34% YOY

Wii: -34% YOY

Gamecube: -43% YOY

Wii U: -71% YOY

3DS: -2% YOY

My current expectation in 10M, which should put the Switch at around 149M units by the end of 2024.

I'm open for a margin alongside the lines of 9M at the lowest, 12M at best.

I think a 10M-11M year would be amazing considering where we're with it right now.

I go for 11 million.

I think it's going to be a disappointing year for switch sales unless Nintendo is able to cut the price significantly (at least $100 off each home model, maybe $50 off for the lite would be enough).

2023 had ToTK and Mario Wonder to keep interest in the console. So far, barring a complete surprise announcement, the only thing that might generate mass interest is whatever the Pokémon company is cooking up.

I'm expecting 9-10 million with no price cut, with a floor of 7.5 million. If they do cut the price then I would set the floor at 10 million and raise my prediction to 11-12 million.

I'd say 10-12 million. Current sales figures from Japan and Europe this month are suggesting a roughly 25-30% drop, which I don't see how this trend doesn't continue through the year. Hopefully Switch 2 announcement will be counterbalanced by MP4 and a new Pokemon game later this year, b/c if both do end up coming out this year, I can def see the higher end of this range being a good target

It's going to depend greatly on a couple of factors, but I'm going to say probably 9-10M, depending on how slow the holidays are this year.

I'll go with 15M, but Nintendo have to make a price cut, some bundles (mainly in Holiday) and a new Pokémon (Lets Go Wooper and Togepi).

I'll be cautiously optimistic and say just under 12M

About 10m. The Switch 2 likely being delayed to early next year could end up being the difference between it falling into the single digits this year or just avoiding that.

If true that the Switch 2 doesn't end up launching until Q1 2025, I can definitely see the Switch having one last double digit year sales-wise. I see it landing at around 11 million (basically, I believe it will cross 150m by the end of the year). Admittedly, it will be kind of hard and it might just narrowly miss the 150m mark. But I do think it will be at least 10m for the year.

I think Switch could get helped by a price drop and the Nintendo Selects lineup, unless Nintendo just decides to get rid of the Switch OLED and keep the Switch & Switch Lite models at the same price and then launch Switch 2 at $400. Switch 2 likely won't have an OLED screen (at least not for its launch model).

I feel like passing the DS is basically going to happen at this point, but it's still slightly less possible for it to pass the PS2. Admittedly, the reason why I still see it being possible for the Switch to land as #2 is because we don't definitively know PS2's final sales. Like if it's 157 or 158, then I'd see Switch surpassing it. But 159 will be hard and 160 is even harder.

EDIT: Actually I've thought about it a bit more, and I feel there's a good chance that the Switch misses 10m this year. Should definitely be at least 9m with a spread like this:

Jan-Mar: 2m

Apr-Jun: 1.5m

Jul-Sep: 1.5m

Oct-Dec: 4.5m

Frankly, it could be even lower than this. I'm basing it off of a Switch 2 reveal in June. From there, I think it's possible that the Switch ends its life deep in the 157 mark, so it's really up in the air if it passes PS2. But I do see it passing DS for sure. Can't see it selling less than 5m after the successor releases, but I also can't see it selling over 10m after the successor releases. Most systems that had a good shelf life after a successor launched were because either the successor failed (at least out of the gate) or didn't have backwards compatibility. Hard to see either of those being the case this time around.

I'd say about 4.5m in 2025, 2.75m in 2026 and 1.5m in 2027 (being discontinued around September of that year).