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Torpoleon on 23 February 2024
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If true that the Switch 2 doesn't end up launching until Q1 2025, I can definitely see the Switch having one last double digit year sales-wise. I see it landing at around 11 million (basically, I believe it will cross 150m by the end of the year). Admittedly, it will be kind of hard and it might just narrowly miss the 150m mark. But I do think it will be at least 10m for the year.

I think Switch could get helped by a price drop and the Nintendo Selects lineup, unless Nintendo just decides to get rid of the Switch OLED and keep the Switch & Switch Lite models at the same price and then launch Switch 2 at $400. Switch 2 likely won't have an OLED screen (at least not for its launch model).

I feel like passing the DS is basically going to happen at this point, but it's still slightly less possible for it to pass the PS2. Admittedly, the reason why I still see it being possible for the Switch to land as #2 is because we don't definitively know PS2's final sales. Like if it's 157 or 158, then I'd see Switch surpassing it. But 159 will be hard and 160 is even harder.

EDIT: Actually I've thought about it a bit more, and I feel there's a good chance that the Switch misses 10m this year. Should definitely be at least 9m with a spread like this:

Jan-Mar: 2m

Apr-Jun: 1.5m

Jul-Sep: 1.5m

Oct-Dec: 4.5m

Frankly, it could be even lower than this. I'm basing it off of a Switch 2 reveal in June. From there, I think it's possible that the Switch ends its life deep in the 157 mark, so it's really up in the air if it passes PS2. But I do see it passing DS for sure. Can't see it selling less than 5m after the successor releases, but I also can't see it selling over 10m after the successor releases. Most systems that had a good shelf life after a successor launched were because either the successor failed (at least out of the gate) or didn't have backwards compatibility. Hard to see either of those being the case this time around.

I'd say about 4.5m in 2025, 2.75m in 2026 and 1.5m in 2027 (being discontinued around September of that year).

Last edited by Torpoleon - on 23 February 2024