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For reference, here's how much the Switch sold in past calendar years:

2017: 14.86 Million

2018: 17.41 Million (+17% YOY)

2019: 20.21 Million (+16% YOY)

2020: 27.41 Million (+36% YOY)

2021: 23.67 Million (-14% YOY)

2022: 19.01 Million (-20% YOY)

2023: 16.81 Million (-12% YOY)

Here is the YOY percent drop similar Nintendo Consoles experienced the year and a quarter before the successor launched (To compare potential drop off to presumed Switch launch in Q1 2025):

Nintendo DS: -34% YOY

Wii: -34% YOY

Gamecube: -43% YOY

Wii U: -71% YOY

3DS: -2% YOY

My current expectation in 10M, which should put the Switch at around 149M units by the end of 2024.