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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Should Xbox End their Generation Early?

 

What year should Xbox start the next generation?

2025 9 14.29%
 
2026 11 17.46%
 
2027 18 28.57%
 
2028 16 25.40%
 
2029 9 14.29%
 
Total:63

With ABK under them, MS is harder than ever to predict. Anything is possible including a total exit from console hardware or going full 3rd party. Even without Xbox hardware, Microsoft could still have a greater presence in gaming than Sony/Playstation.

But Xbox Series XS selling poorly does imply a much shorter generation than we were all expecting, and could force Sony to rush a PS6, which isn't the scenario that I want. I'd rather want them launching a nicely spec'd PS6 at least a year, but giving Xbox a headstart will no doubt give Sony some unpleasent PS3 memories.

If I were Microsoft and my primary goal is for Xbox hardware to regain relevance, I would launch a new Xbox in 2027 and give it "true" timed exclusives that you won't be able to play on PC for at least a few months, including Call of Duty whenever those contracts end.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 22 December 2023

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Chrkeller said:
Wman1996 said:

It's had plenty of third-party games already. 2026 wouldn't be early at all, even 2025 would be early by modern standards but not unprecedented.

I don't buy the argument of too soon to think about a shorter lifecycle. That's like saying around early 2015 that it was too early to talk about a Wii U successor. 

You don't stretch out a lifecycle just to get more games. Nintendo was not about to push Switch to Holiday 2017 or later to get more games on Wii U (3DS already had plenty). 

Sega didn't wait another year or longer to push the Dreamcast just to get more games on Saturn. 

Releasing quick consoles is a good way to ruin a brand.  This generation is just now getting interesting.  Especially when there is next to nothing that wasn't on last gen hardware.  

Way too soon to be considering new hardware.  

Well, true. But I fail to see how 6 years is too quick. 6 years has actually been around the standard for most and relatively recent gaming history (5 was never really the average). You had some consoles succeeded in about 4 years, but some also 5, or 6 and more.

Xbox was replaced in 4 years, Xbox 360 in 8, Xbox One in 7, Xbox Series being replaced in 6 is plenty reasonable. Also, Microsoft doesn't have to pull an Xbox One and discontinue the hardware right as the replacement launches. Xbox Series can still be manufactured for about a year or two after the next console comes out to offer a budget option to get into Xbox and Game Pass. 

The tech will be there as well to start a concept now and to launch in 2026. More RAM, a faster processor, a more robust GPU, etc. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:
Chrkeller said:

Releasing quick consoles is a good way to ruin a brand.  This generation is just now getting interesting.  Especially when there is next to nothing that wasn't on last gen hardware.  

Way too soon to be considering new hardware.  

Well, true. But I fail to see how 6 years is too quick. 6 years has actually been around the standard for most and relatively recent gaming history (5 was never really the average). You had some consoles succeeded in about 4 years, but some also 5, or 6 and more.

Xbox was replaced in 4 years, Xbox 360 in 8, Xbox One in 7, Xbox Series being replaced in 6 is plenty reasonable. Also, Microsoft doesn't have to pull an Xbox One and discontinue the hardware right as the replacement launches. Xbox Series can still be manufactured for about a year or two after the next console comes out to offer a budget option to get into Xbox and Game Pass. 

The tech will be there as well to start a concept now and to launch in 2026. More RAM, a faster processor, a more robust GPU, etc. 

It used to take a year to crank out a game or two, now it can take 6 years just to get one game out the door.



I see no reason why they would end the generation early. They have expressly stated, many times, that selling hardware is no longer a primary goal. So, if anything, their motivation for moving to a new generation is lower than it has been in the past.

What they should be doing is trying to figure out how to get more people easy access to game pass. Maybe that means reviving the streaming box idea. Maybe it means to paying more TV manufacturers to include an app. Or maybe it means working with Sony and Nintendo to get it on their systems. 



Leynos said:

Maybe just time for Xbox to leave consoles. I play my PS5 almost daily and just got it last year. I'm good for this gen to last a few more years. Still feels like it barely started.

Simply no. The industry needs Microsoft in the console business to keep Sony in check. Without competition, the consumer is the ultimate loser.



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Releasing a new console won't solve the problem.

The problem, which has crippled them for over a decade now, is their complete inability to release a consistent stream of quality software. 

Nintendo and Sony manage to put out acclaimed and well made games on a regular basis; Microsoft's last one was what, Forze Horizon 5 two whole years ago? And they haven't had a proper killer app since the Xbox 360 two generations ago. It's ridiculous.

Software sells hardware and as long as they continue to mismanage their development side as they have for the past 10 years, people will be less and less inclined to buy their consoles and they may as well just go third party. They need a radical overhaul of the whole Xbox division. Stop sinking years into the development of games with no system selling potential. Focus on building the kind of developer culture that drives Nintendo and Sony's first party output.

Releasing a new console in 2026 or earlier risks losing the few loyal customers they have left. 2027 wouldn't be so bad though; but they need to make sure that they have the software ready; learn from how Nintendo got the Switch off to a flying start with a first year stacked with great games. Otherwise, they'll just end up in the same situation all over again; stalling in sales because their console has "no games".



Deyon said:
Leynos said:

Maybe just time for Xbox to leave consoles. I play my PS5 almost daily and just got it last year. I'm good for this gen to last a few more years. Still feels like it barely started.

Simply no. The industry needs Microsoft in the console business to keep Sony in check. Without competition, the consumer is the ultimate loser.

I want competition for Sony but MS isn't doing it. Sony has run past them twofold for 2 generations.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

No point in ending it

They just need to release more first party software.



curl-6 said:

Releasing a new console won't solve the problem.

The problem, which has crippled them for over a decade now, is their complete inability to release a consistent stream of quality software. 

Nintendo and Sony manage to put out acclaimed and well made games on a regular basis; Microsoft's last one was what, Forze Horizon 5 two whole years ago? And they haven't had a proper killer app since the Xbox 360 two generations ago. It's ridiculous.

Software sells hardware and as long as they continue to mismanage their development side as they have for the past 10 years, people will be less and less inclined to buy their consoles and they may as well just go third party. They need a radical overhaul of the whole Xbox division. Stop sinking years into the development of games with no system selling potential. Focus on building the kind of developer culture that drives Nintendo and Sony's first party output.

Releasing a new console in 2026 or earlier risks losing the few loyal customers they have left. 2027 wouldn't be so bad though; but they need to make sure that they have the software ready; learn from how Nintendo got the Switch off to a flying start with a first year stacked with great games. Otherwise, they'll just end up in the same situation all over again; stalling in sales because their console has "no games".

The whole argument the xbox division is the same as it has been the beginning of last gen is not accurate at all. They have radically overhauled their Xbox division since 2018 and how they manage their 1st party studios. It just takes longer than ever to release games now, along with covid delaying everything. Most of their studios didn't start making first party games for them until the last 2-4 years. 

It's not like MS is the only one going through this. Sony is going through their own delay woes currently, which is okay and normal. Sony had more ready to go to start the gen, but it's catching up with them. The difference is, Sony benefits from bigger brand awareness, even if they have an objectively worse year than the competition. It doesn't effect them from a sales perspective. 

Xbox's last critically acclaimed game was Hifi Rush earlier this. Followed by 2 solid releases with Starfield and Forza Motorsport, along with a handful solid smaller 1st party games too. Their efforts started showing this year. Next year is looking great for xbox. 



Leynos said:
Deyon said:

Simply no. The industry needs Microsoft in the console business to keep Sony in check. Without competition, the consumer is the ultimate loser.

I want competition for Sony but MS isn't doing it. Sony has run past them twofold for 2 generations.

That's all fine and dandy, but who's going to come in and replace MS? Google, Amazon, Tencent, Netflix, Apple? It has to be a company big enough to absorb the losses and except the L the first generation they join. No one is stopping any of them from joining the console market now. Their no guarantee someone will replace MS either. The console market isn't growing so its likely not appealing for most companies. Consoles will also likely be a thing of the past in the next 2 decades so why would anyone join. MS might as well stick it out, especially after all the efforts they have put in to grow their 1st party studios. None of those other companies will be in a better position than Xbox is now. Xbox can still be successful, even if they don't reach PS or Nintendo numbers.

Last edited by smroadkill15 - on 23 December 2023